Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (18040)	2/9/2003 10:58:10 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206121

Patience Ed, my sense is that the herd will arrive and prices will move quickly. I suspect many money managers got burned last time when the bubble burst and they will be more cautious this time around. I see NA entering Winter 2003/2004 with record low storage and production levels. The Winter 2004/2005 will be the first one where a decent supply response can arrive and also bring storage up a bit. Of course there are several factors that could change the 2004/2005 Winter. Chief among them is if someoe finds and delivers another 2-3 Ladyferns. Patience, the fight to finish this Winter above 700 bcf will be lost IMO and thoughts will quickly shift to next Winter. The math to calculate where we start next Winter will not be to hard to calculate once this Winter ends.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (18040)	2/9/2003 11:18:09 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206121

The part of the equation that I left out that could lead some credence to the disconnect is the world ecomony. If you take out China, things are getting worse not better. Look also at the dollar weakness could also lead to soft equity prices. I have said numerous times, I would rather be long then short in OSX on average, but lately it just is not adding up. Risk is building in all commodities in the energy market, and I donot think US is in IRAQ w/out a plan to save those oil fields. Worse case scnerio is IRAQ fields sustain limited damage, and then the flood of crude will start. Market currently at 35-37BBL is definitly discounting IRAQ coming of line at some point. From what I read Russia has far too many crude ships frozen in port and cannot get to market. If we get Russia back on line to full loads and Caracas as OPEC opens the spicket, if you add a softening world economy, you could have a serious CRASH in the energy markets products in the next 3 months. I researched Drilling permits for January of 2001 and compared them to 2003, we are about even. The real question is how long will cold weather last? Worse case scenerio is as bad as 2001, but look at how quickly the product replenished itself. Also pittraders live and learn. many got caught w. their pants down believing 6-9 crude could sustain itself into the second 1/2 of 2001. Looking at that experience I think NG has another .50 at best in it, perhaps 1. but I really doubt it. Good luck!

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (18040)	2/9/2003 2:35:32 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 206121

Ed, I'd like to stick with your analysis and assumptions and make an attempt at trying to see if technical analysis will support your views. I'm going to take a very simple approach because simple often works better for me than trying to be too smart. The Stochastic indicator is a tool that tells us if a sector or stock is overbought, oversold or somewhere in between. When the Stochastic indicator is above 80, it's telling us that it's overbought. When it's below 20, it's telling us it is oversold. I don't use this indicator for buy and sell signals, although a lot of people do. I use it to tell me where a position sits at any given time. When I see an overbought situation, I start to look for confirmation that we'll see a pullback, or if we will see additional buying, supporting a breakout. I have frozen the accompanying chart in time, as of three weeks ago, when the XNG hit a recent high at 173. Take note of the Stochastic indicator. The solid black line is your signal line and it sits at 95.28. Very overbought. stockcharts.com[h,a]waclynay[d20010209,20030118][pb50!b10!f][iut!Lh14,3]&pref=G The next week we had the first of the 200+ draws and the XNG dropped in price. As we look at the next chart, there are a couple of things to ponder. First, the Stochastic has turned down and the black line (your buy or sell signal) has crossed over the red line, flashing a sell signal for those who use this indicator for buy and sell decisions. The Stochastic is now sitting at 89.45. The second thing I want you to notice is the 50 week and 10 week moving averages. The 10 week moving average is rising up to meet the 50 week moving average. The 50 wma is a major level of support. "MAJOR." stockcharts.com[h,a]waclynay[d20010209,20030125][pb50!b10!f][iut!Lh14,3]&pref=G Now let's bring it up to date. Three 200+ draws later and we still have a falling XNG. The Stochastic has clearly flashed a sell signal by dropping below the 80 line, it's major level of support. However, and "THIS IS IMPORTANT," the XNG is approaching the 50 week moving average at 154.88. The 10 week moving average has moved up to meet it at 154.37, which should provide additional support. stockcharts.com[h,a]waclynay[pb50!b10!f][iut!Lh14,3]&pref=G The XNG at 154-155 will tell us to fish or cut bait. If the fundamentals for NA NG are as strong as you, Russ and Que say they are, this is where it will show up. If the fundamentals are to support the E&P's over the next 6 months, you won't see the XNG fall more than 3-4% below the 50 week moving average. If it does, the market is telling you that the disconnect is going to continue and anyone still holding on to the hope that things will get better, are going to lose capital before they can be proven right. And, what good is it to be right if one doesn't profit from it? Anyway, even the most ardent fundamentalist should learn to use some very basic technical indicators. Overbought and oversold ranges should help one time their buys and sells a little better, especially on the weekly charts since they are longer term. It's also important for those who rely on FA to know where major levels of support and resistance are. Even though they may not want to rely on TA to help with their decision making process, it would be very helpful to know where others are going to buy and sell, who do. The XNG is at an inflection point. This is the week, in my opinion, that either supports your views over the coming 2-3 months, or it tells you your timing is way off. Either way should be helpful to you in looking forward. XNG 154-155 is the key. Since we're using a weekly chart, the XNG must close above this support level next Friday. dabum