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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29096)	3/5/2003 1:04:01 PM
From: Eva	Respond to of 36161

<The USD may go a bit lower and Gold may go a bit higher...but, sans a historic level bio,or nuclear event; imho - the BIG & EASY / HIGH REWARD-LOW RISK money has already been made in this Gold Cycle imho... > May be in this one, the next one is just around the corner. But it is difficult to see for a patriot who can't imagen that the end of an Era "might" be imminent

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29096)	3/5/2003 4:33:09 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

when gold is near #400 next, you will eat your words / jw

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29096)	3/5/2003 5:16:16 PM
From: BSGrinder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider, a year and a half ago you wrote: "I've heard that Steve Forbes,Jack Kemp & Larry Kudlow and now Andy Smith all citing the $340-$350 gold price figure.... is not an arbitrary figure...but, rather an openly acknowledged/behind closed doors, FED targeted liquidity barometer that will be reached." Now that we have reached that level after a fairly well managed climb (except for the brief explosion to $380+), how do you reconcile this price with your assertion that: "I think even the most nascent of Mega-Gold Hypester Bulls would also conceed that there is a "significant" WAR/TERRORISM premium already priced into Gold" ??? What evidence do you have that gold has a large war premium built into it? Wall Street and conventional wisdom are overwhelmingly sanguine about the effects of war on stocks and our economy. It is deemed bullish to get the war started and bullish when news makes war less likely. Furthermore, gold is looking very well-managed at this price - a successful battle has been going on for weeks to keep gold from breaking through that $350-355 level. It seems more likely that we have worked our way to $350 as planned, on the basis of fundamentals: dollar weakness based on record trade deficits and signs of Fed-induced inflation, and the drying up of central bank selling and a reduction of hedging and gold carry trade. Gold is not moving daily on the basis of Iraq news, the way oil is. So why is there a "significant" war premium built into the current price, and how much is it? If there IS a war premium already in the price, then the implication is that when the war starts, there is only downside risk, since the upside is already priced in. Why do you think all the people buying physical in China, India, Japan, Russia, and the Islamic world are going to sell gold and buy dollars when the US attacks Iraq? It would make more sense that they would increase their gold buying, both retail and as a percentage of their reserves. If the US is going to to tell the rest of the world that they are "irrelevant," it seems very likely that they might be even less comfortable storing their wealth in the form of IOUs from the US. In summary, it would appear to me that there is no significant war premium built into gold at $350, and that there will be an increased demand for gold if the US attacks Iraq, particularly without UN support. Your thoughts are always appreciated, /BSG

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29096)	3/5/2003 11:56:48 PM
From: habitrail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Wow. And just think, not so long ago you had this to say: <<For Gold; we may see a multi-year stair-step move to $500, or $600 and then end the cycle with a traditional speculative blow off top like we saw in 1980... The real story may turn out to be; whether true Fiat Currency survives the first decade of the new millenium ? This is a significant turning point in Global History and the US Markets are still priced at speculative, euphoric Bubblemania valuation multiple levels... and given both Corporate and Individual Debt Levels; given that we just played the Mortgage Refi-Boom Card... the future is not bright. DOW 5000, S&P 500 and $500 Gold - all seem like "fair value" terrority over the coming 2-3 years imho... where we go over the coming decade from there, will imho be determined by how the War on Terrorism plays out... and then perhaps how Korea and/or China play out as the next threats; with China the rising Global Power as both a militaristic and economic threat...lying dead ahead...just after we'll emerge exhausted, debt laden & misallocated from the War on Terrorism... China with their exploding growth and exponentially expanding financial warchest... interesting times indeed....let's just hope those Chinese grow ever fonder of ole' Yeller vs Mr. Greenback...>> Message 18342411

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (29096)	3/6/2003 11:16:52 AM
From: philv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider, your optimism regarding USD and markets in general is well stated, and I am sure a view shared with the main-stream. But you can't label all those who see severe structural problems with the US dollar, monetary and fiscal problems, and their ultimate effect on Gold as kooks or hypsters. You stated in an earlier post that Gold will never be allowed to replace fiat. I agree, but that implies price control. Many have thought for a very long time, that gold is not freely traded. You must have read Warren Buffett's latest pessimistic outlook and assessment of stocks and the derivative game. You wouldn't label him a kook. You say that the USD weakness is "already anticipated and priced into present Gold prices". You also write "Don't you think that future USD weakness from the Fed's reflation is already anticipated and priced into present Gold prices ?" So, that is anticipated, yet in the next paragraph, you mention that there is a significant "WAR/TERRORISM" premium now built into the price of gold. How come, the market can "anticipate" one but not the other? I have always smiled when people say the market is like some kind of all knowing beast, continuously anticipating and pricing now according to future events. What a crock. If that was the case, gold's price today should represent its value after war. And bubbles would never occur, and these large swings now common place couldn't happen. You say: "Lenders over the last 6 mos have dramatically tightened credit. Consumer finance has tightened to levels unseen over the last 10-15 years in many market niches." I am interested in the above statement as I may have to re-think my position. Could you give some reference or specifics regarding the dramatically tightened credit regime? This will surely lead to a slow-down of business, don't you think? You are a very good writer, and have made some clear projections and assumptions. These topics are important, because they are at the foundation of daily market movements and our economic well being. Perhaps we can re-visit these questions again some time in the future. Phil