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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fyodor_ who wrote (123985)	6/17/2004 9:32:35 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Fyo, Considering that AMD could barely to 1.8 GHz a year ago, and now 2.4 GHz sells across the board, 600 MHz or 33% increase in clock speed is not that bad, considering that all the competition managed is to go from 3 GHz to 3.4 GHz on Northwood while Prescott over 3 GHz is still rare. As far as bin splits, I think AMD is doing OK, since they are replacing the 2.2 GHz 1MB L2 part with 2.4 GHz 512K L2 part in their 754 Athlon 3400. While the last 12 month clock speed ramp of some 33% was very good, I don't think AMD will repeat that in the next 12 months (which would call for 3.2 GHz parts 12 months from now). Another good indicator would be if AMD does not* introduce slower 939 models, although if they do, I wouldn't consider it a contrary indicator (rather just a response to market demands).* I think the range of the speed grades is 2.0 to 2.4 GHz, which allows ratings of 3200 to 3800 even on 512K parts, which is higher then where Intel is with Prescott. I would view introduction of lower speed (2.0 GHz) part as an indication of increasing volume. Joe

To: fyodor_ who wrote (123985)	6/17/2004 9:35:44 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Thanks all for the response to my questions on yields. Next key question in my analysis: What are the risks associated with the move to 90nm? This seems to be one of the key risk issues specific to AMD (i.e., not shared by INTC). What is the expected timing of the move? To be more precise, how and when would we know that this risk is no longer going to be a significant factor going forward? Finally, what is the impact on their roadmap if the move is not smooth? Peter

To: fyodor_ who wrote (123985)	6/17/2004 11:07:09 AM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

fyodor - It doesn't seem probable that the frequency distribution was this narrow, so unless you subscribe to the "stockpiling theory". My personal choice is that AMD has retargeted their channel lengths to get more speed. Binsplits go up but the yields go down due to the inability to reliably resolve features at those dimensions. In essence they are pushing the process beyond it's capability hence the yield loss. This is not loss due to increased defect density but it's still loss anyway. I would think this would not look like a normal distribution on the high end of the curve. I don't think the bin splits have quite come up to where AMD would want them either, considering that the newly announced models only reach 200MHz higher than the previous max (2.2GHz for the 3200+ vs 2.4GHz for the 3800+). That's a long time to be stalled in frequency. AMD's gotten everything out of this process they're going to get. They're at the end of the line and they need 90nm.

To: fyodor_ who wrote (123985)	6/17/2004 3:24:09 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

re: until very recently... Only 3 speed grades were available! 3200+, 3000+ and 2800+. Initial grades were 3000, 3200 and 3400. 2800 was added recently. And 3800 is now available. I got an early 3000+ (January) and have been voltage starting it (1.3v) at full speed without any problems. Take a look at newegg's home page newegg.com -- the #1 item is a Prescott 2.4 GHz for $121. Intel's flagship core for $121! Now there's a binsplit problem. Go to the CPU page - newegg.com The #1 item is the same 3000+ I bought for $227 five months ago and it's now $223. The selling price of all Athlon 64s is above the P4 price, but there are no Prescotts above 3.2. There is absolutely no evidence of a "binsplit problem" for K8s. 3000+ to 3400+ at intro, only one lower bin added and 3 higher bins added -- 3500+, 3700+ and 3800+. Meanwhile Precott 3.4 is barely available, it at all, and 2.4 speed grade (at 533 FSB no less!) had to be added to be able to sell the millions of units that could even run at Athlon 64's slowest speed grade. Petz