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To: mishedlo who wrote (127651)	1/3/2006 11:37:21 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Wow. I don't know a single person who holds even a third of the views categorized as "widely held".

To: mishedlo who wrote (127651)	1/3/2006 11:51:57 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Respond to of 209892

OT/AH/FA, Shack.... <<I expect the first rate cut to be sold hard. Possibly the pause too.>> No argument, Mish.....In fact the pause could tie in rather nicely with a "crystal ball" SPX chart I posted just yesterday....showing a hardish sell off beginning in the Spring......say April-May...... Thanks for the BlogLink...Too late in the East to read now, but will be interested in taking a look at your "silly predictions".....I've been pushing a few of my own around here,,,,,,gg

To: mishedlo who wrote (127651)	1/4/2006 12:06:46 AM
From: venividivici	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Extrapolating from today's interpretation that the last rate hike is closer than previously thought, wouldn't that imply that the first rate cut is also closer than thought? If that's true, today should have been sold due to forecasted economic weakness. Instead it was bought because the market thinks the Fed has gone too far and that a short-term rate cut is needed at some point in the near future to boost the economy, right? Still, although I disagree in this particular instance, thanks for taking the time out to list your predictions. At least gives me some things to think about.

To: mishedlo who wrote (127651)	1/4/2006 8:54:08 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

mish I am not as bearish long term as you. Though I think 2006 will be lousey for stocks into fall say down 10%, and yes i agree with your opinion that we get a recession. I also believe that in late 06 we will make a meaningfull bottom and have a massive rally. The reasons I believe this 1)Money creation is in overdrive, in the short term this is good for stocks 2)after a 20% quick hit to housing the prices will stabilize as they have in Europe and Australia 3)After a recession in 3-4Q the economy will gallop out on strength in every region of the world 4)Housing money will rotate back in to stock as has happened in Europe and Australia(despite 20% fall in housing markets at all time high) 5)The comodity bull after a slight pause will go nuts as demand shoots through the roof. 6)The Us dollar will drop, also helping stock and comodity prices