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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eracer who wrote (195112)	4/26/2006 2:02:21 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

When the P4 launched the pricing for the two fastest speeds were: Products and Pricing The Pentium 4 processor is being introduced today at 1.5 and 1.4 GHz speeds. The Pentium 4 processor is manufactured on Intel's high-volume, 0.18-micron process technology and is available now. Pricing in 1,000 unit quantities is $819 and $644 each for the 1.5 and 1.4 GHz parts, respectively. intel.com Conroe pricing at launch $530 and $316 images.dailytech.com RE:AMD's revenues will probably feel a bigger effect a few quarters after the Woodcrest and Conroe launches, and not in a positive way. In a few quarters after Conroe launch, won't AMD have launched K8L on 65nm pretty much mooting the argument of a more drastic effect on AMD than Intel. AMD is used to an ASP of less than $100, Intel not so much...

To: eracer who wrote (195112)	4/26/2006 2:10:31 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

eracer, There will be no instant cure for Intel revenues. AMD's revenues will probably feel a bigger effect a few quarters after the Woodcrest and Conroe launches, and not in a positive way. While that is true, these things are a bid down the road. These extremely cheap Celerons are there now. What is your take on Intel's motivation here? It seems to me that the damage to Intel is going to be an order of magnitude bigger than impact on AMD. These Celerons are a dumpster material, either downbinned or a side-effect of having to run too many wafers to get enough higher end parts, but in either case, each one of those Celerons may be replacing a CPU with 2x its price, more than likely than not, an Intel CPU. Joe

To: eracer who wrote (195112)	4/26/2006 2:21:15 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

[Edited] @Eracer/Joe " AMD's revenues will probably feel a bigger effect a few quarters after the Woodcrest and Conroe launches, and not in a positive way. " Thats the same thought which we hear every day from analysts. I don't get it, why noone seems to care the given circ. or is minimum telling a few of could-be-scenarios ... When I read your lines in the last weeks I assume that you estimate falling ASPs after NGA is launched. Is that correct? Whats your volume estimate for Q3 QoQ and Q4 QoQ? I don't know, why I should repeat my old posts to this ASP topic - the mean function whether we will see steady, higher or lower ASPs will be MIX. If Dual Core ramps fast at AMD, the price could go down MASSIVLY!!! without decreasing overall ASPs - I have shown this here. Just a drop of 50% on avarage would "be no problem" ... so I'm surprised to see some math and assumptions from you. Up to date I have only seen bla bla bla ... sorry. edit: BTW: MIX, followed my posts to this topic, I'm now assuming a much higher mobile share on our whole CPU numbers. In the last time, all was focussed on NGA and DC - I have the feeling that with the Turion-X2s and more SKUs AMD will gain share from a low base and the percentage of mobile products shipping will increase. Not to 50% levels which Intel claims, but 25% is not that out of region when you ask me late this year. So everyone should think about this - more mobile units, increasing Opteron Sales, higher DC Desktops ramps and lower Sempron % units ... BUGGI

To: eracer who wrote (195112)	4/26/2006 3:59:23 AM
From: Rink	Respond to of 275872

Eracer, Buggi is right. I also think it's rather unbalanced to presume declining AMD revenue solely on the basis of Woodcrest/Conroe influencing AMD's ASP's. There are more factors than the NGA event that influence AMD's ASP's and revenues. You have not factored in large fab capacity increase (bigger dies and/or more units; emphasis on bigger dies). What are you doing in this discussion with recently added fab 36 and flex capacity from Chartered's fab 7 in H2? How much negative influence do you expect the NGA event to have on AMD's ASP's and revenues versus how much positive influence do you expect the fab capacity increase to have in either H2/06 or H1/07 (I mention these time frames in the hope of a more pointed discussion). Only talking about only one driver simply does not make sense in this discussion. Regards, Rink