Hello carranza2, the link you provided for Hawkmoon Ron Reece's post is not the correct one.
If you meant John Pitera's post of what John Maudlin wrote on what Louis Gave wrote, I will take that as a separate matter.
As to Ron Hawkmoon, should he agree with Louis Gave, it would not surprise me.
T hen Ron is once again either mistaken or delusional, the correct right (pun intended) take on the future can not be Ron's, and by implication, Louis’ take is also suspect, as usual.
FYI, here are all the ways Ron Hawk were wrong before, and our discussion June 25th 2001 was particularly timely, and indicative on how absolutely wrong Ron can be (pun certainly intended, again).
Ron Hawk's entire world view premise is wrong, and so, as a result, can only be correct by good fortune, should fortune smile.
Message 14861804
November 22nd, 2000
Message 15061631
December 20th, 2000
Message 15957774
June 18th, 2001
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=15993177
June 25th, 2001
Message 16006812
June 28th, 2001
Message 18395985
January 3rd, 2003
Message 18399762
January 3rd, 2003
Message 18952271
May 17th, 2003
Message 18952614
May 18th, 2003
As to Anatole Kaletsky's take on "Do Trade Deficits Matter", here is a clue, it has always mattered before, and no amount of "it is different this time, especially if we change the standard of measure and the metric of concern" will change what had always been true, as a matter of math.
The Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave (Anatole Kaletsky is a team member here in HK) take smacks of Cheney's quip about fed deficits, and must be heavily discounted, for some folks are now committed and in print.
Their error is a fundamental one, for they deny the existence of fiat money inflation as a driver for all that can be explained, and instead spin new fiction over an old story.
The old story is here achamchen.com
The TEOTEOTWAWKI lot sells snake oil, and pushes KoolAid.
Swallow, and financial fatality follows.
Chugs, J
P.S. on Louis … my blog worldmarket.blogspot.com May 14th, 2005 first featured, a coincidence, no doubt, a Louis and a Marc, but anyway, Heinz, Joel and Jay you know for sure in a series of e-mail exchanges, one even serving up a gentleman code-named “Screamer”, perhaps you are familiar with
QUOTE
From: Louis
Sent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005
Subject: RE: The irony of it all
So will the US prove different?
...
o US real estate is not as overvalued as UK, or Australian real estate
o US real estate is less interest rate sensitive (since mortgages are less frequently on variable rates, and more often on fixed rate)
So, to answer, your question: where does that leave us?
On US real estate: I would rather buy it, than sell it ... but so you can take one more risk/return by buying US real estate in borrowed euros.
Regards,
louis
From: Louis
Sent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005
Subject: RE: The irony of it all
Dear Heinz,
...
I think Jay's question begs the question: what has been/will be the driver of US real estate prices/ activity.
Obviously, there are many answers, including:
o demographics
o the fall in the volatility of GDP (which allows the average worker to borrow more since he won't be fired at the bottom of the cycle)
o the rise in real disposable income (a direct consequence of solid employment growth + low inflation on consumer goods)
o the low level of interest rates
o others
In my answer, I try to argue (maybe clumsily) that the low level of interest rates:
o is most likely here to stay; i.e.: the Fed is close to done
o that even if it were not, and if the Fed followed the BoE and the RBA into pushing short rates up until the yield curve was flat, then the experiences of these two countries (who are more sensitive to short rates, and more in bubble territory anyway) suggest that the real estate market could bear it
... My question is: if it is not the rise in short rates that will trigger the collapse in US real estate, what will be the trigger? What signs should we be looking for?
I think this is a valid question. After all, a number of perma-bears (perma-bores as my friend Brian Reading of Lombard Street self-depracatingly calls himself!) have been calling for the collapse of US real estate and the US consumer for some years now and yet it has yet to occur.
This of course does not mean that it will not, but what will be the trigger since we seem to agree that it won't be the rise in short rates?
Regards,
Louis
UNQUOTE
You see, had one actually followed this Louis’ advice, borrowed Euro and bought USA housing, as opposed to doing what I actually did, which is to sell US housing and buy euro, thai baht, Japanese yen, AUD, CAD, and paper gold, one would be worse off, which is, not coincidentally, the opposite of better off.
The E-mail exchanges continued to this nearly day
worldmarket.blogspot.com May 14th, 2005
worldmarket.blogspot.com May 20th, 2005
worldmarket.blogspot.com May 27th, 2005
worldmarket.blogspot.com July 15th, 2005
worldmarket.blogspot.com October 7th, 2005
worldmarket.blogspot.com August 11th, 2005
worldmarket.blogspot.com February 10th, 2006
P.P.S.
Yes, my private NSA turned up the following on Carranza2
Message 16099664
July 19th, 2001
Message 16313419
September 7th, 2001
Message 16945416
January 22nd, 2002
Message 17244126
March 25th, 2002
Message 17701005
July 5th, 2002
Message 17708164
July 8th, 2002
Message 18094578
October 9th, 2002
Message 18236621
November 14th, 2002
Message 18221880
November 11th, 2002
Message 18326836
Dec 11th, 2002
Message 18472099
January 21st, 2003 |
