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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: profile_14 who wrote (82563)	4/5/2007 3:14:25 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 206322

Can we get back on topic? Thank you. Now to matters of great importance. Who will be the next American Idol? Who will win Dancing With the Stars. Much mor important than peak oil, declining energy production in Mexico, foolish ethanol boondoggle...

To: profile_14 who wrote (82563)	4/5/2007 3:22:37 PM
From: fmikehugo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206322

<Does anyone feel insecure about our economy or about the way the world is growing?> I'm experiencing deja vu all over again. Specifically, about a long evening in a bar on Okinawa many years ago, with some fellow Marines, watching a guy at the bar knocking back glasses of saki. There was no question that he would eventually fall to the floor with a crash. The only question was how long he would manage to stay upright, which he did for much longer for what seemed a very long time. But the end was inevitable.

To: profile_14 who wrote (82563)	4/5/2007 3:29:39 PM
From: LoneClone	Respond to of 206322

This is the wall of worry up which all bull market participants must climb. As to how close we are to the top of the wall... LC

To: profile_14 who wrote (82563)	4/5/2007 3:37:23 PM
From: CommanderCricket	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 206322

Profile, "Does anyone feel insecure about our economy or about the way the world is growing?" The world no longer revolves around the US economy but Wall Street hasn't figured it out yet. The story most miss is the economic problems are local but the rest of world is chugging along at a nice clip. The boom in China and India is mind boggling and IMO, many just don't get it. In addition, I can't tell you how many times in the last few months someone has called either myself or my wife asking for help. There are companies out there begging for workers and salaries are very good. The problem is these jobs aren't for unemployed auto workers or mortgage brokers. Got a degree and experience in engineering, accounting, programming etc... and you've got a job if you want one. Talked with a buddy several days ago who lives in Indiana manufacturing cellulose blowing equipment for commercial building. Business in the Midwest couldn't be much better. Just my opinion but believe the doom and gloomers are flat out wrong and are missing the bigger picture. Michael

To: profile_14 who wrote (82563)	4/6/2007 5:20:40 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206322

Insecure about the economy ? Not overall, but some sectors and areas have it VERY BAD. Worst sectors are automotive and now residential real estate. Worst areas - 1) Detroit and surrounding area - It's 1931 or 1979 in the auto industry, with no recovery in sight. >>This is a damn serious problem that needs heavy Federal intervention soon.<< There is a risk if this spreads - we might even call it a dagger aimed at the heart of industrial America. So far neither political party is doing diddily about this. I think JQ Public and maybe Tommasso are near the area and could comment. 2) Lousianna has population about 4 % under pre-Katrina, significant crime problems stop people and companies from moving back. Still not recovered, local governments are broke, etc. 3) Florida, especially real estate sector. Lower US dollar will tend to help international tourism, however. Higher Hurricane related insurance costs are affecting housing sectors, higher energy prices make air conditioning very expensive. I expect Florida population growth will slow. 4) Colorado seems to have a slow economy for some reason, maybe delayed high tech slow down ? They had many hardware companies but few dot coms - and mostly dot coms have recovered. The rest of the country is UP or flat - looking at sectors 1) Most every farm state is doing well, corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat all up. 2) Wall Street had a pretty good year, large bonuses, etc. 3) US aerospace doing well, with worldwide orders for new planes, corporate jets, military spending all up. 4) Energy and Mining sectors we already know about. 5) US exports have been growing slightly faster percentage wise than imports. Looking at states, California is doing well, but not as good as 2005 was. All the small population states tend to benefit from farming, mining, or energy. The larger states tend to have diversified economies, and some finance activity. So outside of the auto industry, I feel okay near term. Not at all like 2000 or early 2001.

To: profile_14 who wrote (82563)	4/6/2007 8:26:30 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 206322

pro, I read all of your posts regarding the current economic situation the U.S. is in and I have to say you have a keen insight of how risk and reward is allocated in current market. I believe most investors are always of the belief this time will be different, I agree it will be different and far worse then most want to even try to comprehend. The Greenspan era of saving the economy and not allowing the excess to be followed in the normal course will have devestating effects on this countryfor many years to come. In the late 70's and early 80's the Fed had to allow business and investments to fail to allow the normal ebb and flow of liquidity in the system. Greenspan took the approach by controling the liquidity he could act as a puppet and save the US. Economy at a time when in the normal course the economy should have been sot and in a recession for no less then 1-2 years probably longer to squeeze out the excess, its the normal progression of growth. I look at the seasons as a good analogy, instead of allowing Fall and Winter to approach, you allowed false and misleading weather patterns to allow skipping of the cold months of the year. The problem is enviroment cannot and will not allow this without having profound effects on Spring and Summer! Greenspan artifically propt market in 97-2004 with his rediculous attempts to save us from a recession when in reality we needed the downtime in a recession like we need Fall and Winter before the new of spring and summer arrises. These economic policies have crushed the savings rate which was much, much higher mainly due to much higher rates of return on Stable, no risk investments. In the 60's- mid 80's even though we had Hyper-inflation, the rate of return was over 8% on average. Yes, fed funds rate was much higher but needed to be so to ring out the excess's from late 60's and early 70's war time spending spree's. Greenspan should never have taken Fed Funds rate as low as he did, he falsely created the R.E. Bubble that will have profound effects on our country for decade's from now. We are heading back to the Mid 70's economic polcies which should be GOOD for hte U.S. in the long run once we clean the garbage out of the system and stop throwing a life preserver to all those who's investment'sare failing due to economic re-adjustments. The Fed as far as I am concerned needs to be much more aggresive and Hike the Fed Funds rate for at least 1-2 years and take it a level that cleans up the liquidity excesses from the late 90's, this has not been done. It should have happened form 2001-2005 but instead fed flooded market with cheap money. One last point, without question someone and some area's of economy will get crushed like Real estate, but if you live in your home and you have a normal 30 yr mortgage it will be fine. Let those investors that reeped the rewards of the RE Bubble now hurt and fail its normal!! Great insight!