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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9636)	10/26/1997 2:02:00 PM
From: William L. Oppenheim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I wonder if we are beginning to see PC saturation in the US. Sure, there is an insatiable need for semiconductors well into the future. But over the years I've bought lots of PC's. Now for the first time I am sitting with a p120 at home and a p200 at work, and neither is MMX and I, who can well afford another machine--really don't see the need to upgrade. There is little difference between the two, and most of what I now do as a consumer, I do on the internet and let the mainframes handle the details. For word processing, spreadsheets, email, personal accounting, and even slide presentations, I just don't need the latest and greatest any longer. I'll bet there are a lot of folks who feel like me. Why otherwise do we now have under $1000 computers replacing machines of only a year ago. In the past the machines stayed at about $2000-3000, but the features and power were upgraded in quantum leaps. No longer. Now the features expandto a lesser extent, but the prices come down. In my view, the same thing is going to happen to the high PE tech stock prices. Especially if the statement that 10% of chips go to that market is true.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9636)	10/26/1997 2:03:00 PM
From: John E. Rylander	Respond to of 70976

Cary, I'd be fascinated to find out where you get percentages like "I am probably (60%) overly optimistic". :^> --John

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9636)	10/26/1997 2:24:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, in the last few thousand posts, we have discussed the potential impact of Asia and the chances of a slowdown that would affect all semi caps. One thing that has not be disscused is any potential change in the semi cap companies that could impact the dominance of AMAT. In LRCX's conf call there seemed to be clues that LRCX was up to something. They mentioned an "activity" in the oxide area that would change the landscape of the oxide etch market share. They also, talked about the potential of discontinuing CVD activities if things don't turn around for them in that area. I'm sure that Bagely know's that if he wants to build a world class semi cap company (like AMAT) he cannot do it on etch and CMP alone. I would not be surprised to see a merger like Tencor and KLAC in 1998. NVLS is in the same boat as LRCX....a LRCX/NVLS merger would strengthen both the companies in the global market. Maybe that is why LRCX is willing to give upon their CVD plans in the next 2 quarters. Obviously this is shooting in the dark, but is there a chance that a or several mergers can create another major semi cap company?? dave

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9636)	10/26/1997 2:34:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, I've been reading your posts for a while and would say your optimism is somewhat influenced by the market (but not much). Right now you appear very cautiously optimistic. Regards Gottfried

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9636)	10/26/1997 8:49:00 PM
From: Steve Byers	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

I have owned amat for 9 months and bailed out on friday with nearly 10,000 shares... dumped my Intel and aol also... the asian markets, particularly Hong Kong smack of manipulation which the pit bulls are set on correcting.... and I can't remember when a country with economics out of whack in the region was able to stand up to the reality of market corrective action... Interest rates will likely rise and choke off the property valuations... banks will see increased rates of foreclosures and people will get scared and severly limit their consumption... as has already taken place in Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore... fear of losing what you have built, wealth and capital has strange effects on people, they like to keep it... and that FEAR has them take drastic measures... which is easily transformed into other areas of the economy... cell phones, new gadgets, etc... production gets cut, and exports are propped up with lower prices... margins get pressured down and capital spending elsewhere gets reduced, delayed... my opinion... the peg in HK wont stand and I don't want to be invested while that happens... I own some jan 35 or 37.5 calls, and sold jan 55 calls three weeks ago for $5... but as MUCH as I really like amat, and will make it once again my largest holding... I don't want to be holding it through what could be a very turbulent month or two ahead... maybe will get back in before, or just after Christmas... but at this point, would only come back in if the price goes substantially below 30... probably below 25... the next week or two will be very interesting... good luck... as for the probabilities you used... I'm much less optimistic... particularly with an asian crisis too possibly heighten over the next few weeks... what do you think will happen if th HK govt decides to fight the speculators in the next round? then decides to let the currency float? could get ugly... good luck