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Technology Stocks : ACTM $100 Million Cable Modem Contract with MOT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (286)	10/30/1997 12:37:00 PM
From: DD™	Respond to of 1250

jb: Tax loss selling will be an important factor for the rest of the year. I would not expect to see any great advance just for that reason. I believe the yearly low prior to the recent decline was in the 20 area, and as such, anybody buying this stock this year and still holding is holding a loss. DD

To: jeffbas who wrote (286)	10/30/1997 12:41:00 PM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1250

Jeff, I think you are too negative on management and on ACTM. I think they are at the bottom of their decline. Management may have known the problem of Q3 but they certainly could not have told you. It would have been material info from an insider and you would have been a tippee and everyone would be in violation of insider rules if anyone traded. Also there was the hockey stick problem which management alluded to as to their sales. But I agree with you that managment should have had a better idea of the situation at the end of the quarter. They should nnot have said anything to you regardless. They did preannounce probably when they had some certainty on the figures. Pinos 5 mill shares owned make me more comfortable with this stock which is now close to #3 of my holdings. I think they will be working very hard to turn this around. Rich

To: jeffbas who wrote (286)	10/30/1997 2:15:00 PM
From: kolo55	Respond to of 1250

I am disappointed with the comment you got from the CFO. I think they must have been hoping to get that big shipment out in time to "save" the quarter. But I must tell you, the management of ACTM has never been kind to the individual investor. When I first began researching this sector it was the hardest company to get information on. There was some kind of delay in getting their previous reports published on the SEC edgar site, the earnings releases were delayed to almost the last possible day and weren't widely disseminated, and the earnings reports were extremely sketchy. I really thought at one time, the management was trying to keep the stock a "secret" since management seemed to be acquiring shares from time to time. But in fairness, this stock has been the playground of momentum investors, and I think the stock is going through a process of moving to longer term value or GARP investors. Good riddance to the Mo guys, even though I don't think the stock will ever attain the high PE it had at 48 in August; now the company has shown it can disappoint, the constantly rising revenues/earnings that turn the mo guys on, just can't always be counted on. But for a relatively small ECM company, there will always be the possibility of a surprise shortfall. The margins are low, and any significant customer turnover will impact earnings. We've seen case after case of this in this sector over the last several years. It happened to Jabil in early 96, Flextronics in mid-96, and is happening to Hadco and Elamex right now (both are losing large customers moving to Asia). I believe these "predictable surprises" create buying opportunities. Earlier this year I tried to explain that in my posts on Elexsys and Flextronics. Occasionally I get it wrong, like in the case of Smartflex, where I misunderstood the trends in the hard drive industry, where their major customers were located. But all in all, buying these stocks when they announce short term problems, has been a profitable strategy (see FLEXF, DIIG, ELEX, BHE, AFLX this past year). In the case of ACTM, I think the company is being forced to rethink their strategy a bit. I like the move to concentrate in some medical systems assembly, in which the acquisition of the Georgia company seems to be part of this effort. Also I like the moves to expand in Ireland and bring in the Stanley business. As the company becomes less reliant on Massachusetts networkers, I think the risk of these surprises declines. I always felt this stock should carry a risk premium as long as it was basically a one industry one location stock. The current price looks very good to me. The revenues from last quarter's missed shipment should turn up this quarter, and so I expect this quarter the company should see a return to reasonable profitability in the current quarter. And next year I still see $1.60 to $2.00 in earnings. I don't think management will be able to grow this company faster than the sector (25-30%) like they talk about, but the stock is priced as though the company's earnings will be flat over the next several years. This is a very low expectation to beat, and I think they can do it handily. I expect to see this stock in the mid-30s or higher in one year. The downside isn't much lower than where te stock is this morining. For the patient investor, this risk/reward looks good to me. I bought more shares this morining, and now hold 8200 shares. Paul

To: jeffbas who wrote (286)	10/30/1997 2:17:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1250

I'm having a lot of problems with my connection today. And yesterday as well. Its a good thing I use a separate system for quotes and trades. My last message was posted twice, and SI won't let me cancel a posting out right, so i thought I'd talk a bit more. I wonder who is selling? Some have suggested that this is tax loss selling. I tend to agree. But from what I know, most money managers and mutual fund managers have to close their books for tax purposes by the end of October, so tomorrow is the last day for selling and getting to take the loss on this year's books. Can anyone else confirm this? Then individuals get until Dec 31 to take tax losses. This could be another reason for the weakness today. Paul

To: jeffbas who wrote (286)	10/30/1997 4:55:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1250

Jeffrey, Maybe the CFO did not want to disclose that "insider" info until it was done to the public. that is to say, ... imagine a CFO telling a shareholder of a margin problem before telling the "analyst" community. If that happened, the analysts would abandon the stock and take alot of the demand for the stock with them. Paulo

To: jeffbas who wrote (286)	11/4/1997 12:46:00 PM
From: Patrick Bateman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1250

Jeff, As always your insightful comments are appreciated. But sometimes you go a little too far. I remember a few months ago a posting under the CCUR message board that looked similar to these comments on ACTM. I chose to pay no attention to your comments and the stock is up almost 200%. Sometimes companies honestly make mistakes. And sometimes great managers honestly make mistakes. I believe that is what ACTM has done. They have made some mistakes that could probably have been mostly avoided. But I can't imagine the stock at $10. They are in a viable business that is growing. The stock may not do much before year end and may be down from the $16 it is now at. But 6-12 months from now I think the stock will be near $30. COMMENTS ANYONE?