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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PaulM who wrote (6259)	1/19/1998 6:50:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116786

Guess how I spent my weekend, reading every post in this thread. 1) M2 increase is directly related to Greenspan attempt to add liquidity to currency to prevent a rapid rise in the US Dollar. Hyperinflation. It's the ratio of M2-M1, that's important. 2) A rising US dollar causes the POG to decrease. Commodity deflation. 3) Currency fluctuations play more on the POG than short covering, hedging. Any spike due to covering will be short lived. But a decreasing dollar could cause a gold rush. Whether you treat GOLD as a currency or currency as a commodity, they are in essence the same. Gold has never deteriate, or inflated ever. Only currencies can change ratio's with reference to gold. And since silver is a more liquid currency, it suffers from the Fiat currency effect. 4) The POG will deteriate over the next few months, as more Banks in Japan will be forced to claim bankruptcy. Right now the bubble in Japan is being propted up on promises. Wait for those promises to break, and the Yen/USD to go to 160-190 Yen/USD. The Japanese investor won't repropiate their investment, but disinvest into other countries allowing the home investor take the brunt of the pain of restructoring. Japanese Depression 5) The most recent rise in the price of gold was either caused by new future option, or central bank currency speculations. I chose the later. Gold will continue down below $240.00 with oppertunity all along the way. Even TrizecHahn is considering dumping gold stocks. Message 3201872 Gold dropped another $1.20 in the time I took to write this message.

To: PaulM who wrote (6259)	1/19/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Jaakko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116786

ANOTHER now recognizes the " fractional reserve gold lending" that I suspected was going on in August. I still think this is the key to the weakness in the POG. Message 1994923 kitcomm.com

To: PaulM who wrote (6259)	1/19/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: Mark Bartlett	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116786

Paul, <<There are a number of implications of all this, but I'd be curious to hear comments. >> Interesting hypothesis ..... I think it has some merit It would IMHO, only make sense though, if at some later point in time, gold was allowed to rise again, otherwise they would be accepting a depreciating asset as payment, especially in the face of the strong US dollar. In addition, (as you pointed out) we are at a critical juncture vis-a-vis the state of the economy and the affect a price rise in oil would have. Clearly there are advantages for capping the price AMAP. I do not buy the official reasons for the present gold price either .... as was pointed out by Pringle, there have been much higher CB sales in the past, and gold has risen in price - in spite of it. Things are not adding up as far as I am concerned .... do not know whether we will ever know the truth though - but it makes for an interesting discussion. MB

To: PaulM who wrote (6259)	1/20/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: Tom Byron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116786

Paul: Thanks for your well thought out response. The only thing I can say at this time is that I too can see ANOTHER's senario unfolding but having been thru the Bre-X saga (I came out on the "plus" side), and my leanings towards a technical point of view of the markets, I try to take it all with a grain of salt and keep running back to my charts, cycles, timing and pattern work. ... So much can be said with words and with the advent of the internet there even seems to be access to more words than before. I'd say "before the word (fundamentals) there was the cycle and waves". But it is "fun" to watch a mystery unfold and wonder in the end how it might all come down (or hopefully for gold up ). :)