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To: neolib who wrote (53269)	1/27/2024 9:32:25 PM
From: Vattila	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72157

As valuation is so dependent on revenue and profit growth, I guess we might see both Nvidia give up valuation (as margins definitely and perhaps even revenue come down) and AMD gain (if revenue can grow beyond the already sizable expectations now being set). But the AI revolution may lift both for a while. To be frank, I would be happy if from here AMD just had slow steady growth, just above inflation, until I reach old age. However, it now looks like AMD will benefit materially from the upcoming AI era, and we might enter my Optimistic scenario ($200-400 stock price) pretty soon. Depending on how it all pans out with AI developments, adoption and competition, times ahead may become really crazy and turbulent. In any case, I'm glad I'm not a Nvidia shareholder. It is amazing what Jensen Huang has achieved, and the company should have great prospects, but I would worry about securing profits every day. I am not a trader, and I rarely sell stock (actually, the only stocks I've "sold" are MIPS and then Imagination — sells forced upon me as these companies faltered and were acquired). I prefer just holding my large investment in my beloved AMD underdog for the long-term.

To: neolib who wrote (53269)	1/28/2024 12:20:58 AM
From: Vattila	Respond to of 72157

Here is a 3-year financial roadmap to take AMD into my Optimistic scenario. This requires 25% annual revenue growth, which is slightly above the 20% CAGR set by AMD's Financial Model, but well below the growth we experienced through the pandemic 2020-2022. Presumably, AI will be the main growth driver. Feel free to play with the numbers at my OneDrive.

To: neolib who wrote (53269)	1/28/2024 1:03:25 PM
From: Doug M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 72157

<< The interesting thing to contemplate is IF AMD becomes significant competition to NVDA, will AMD double in price or will Nvidia fall in half instead.>> Anything can happen in the short-run. Heck, just one example (out of many) is that China's Nio EV company was $60 / share a few years ago and now it's only $6! Much of that was simply due to EV hype and I think that hype can be a dangerous thing in the stock market. Now I'm not saying that AI is hype, but I am saying that valuations can get somewhat extended due to just piling on the bandwagon that's currently working. But the bottom line is that I don't care what people think in the short-run. I think a more interesting question is what stock will perform the best looking five years out? My money is on Intel - partially due to things like this, but there's many others too: ASML's First High-NA EUV Litho Scanner Arrives at Intel January 5, 2024 <<ASML on Thursday said that it had shipped its pilot High-NA EUV scanner to Intel. The Twinscan EXE:5000 extreme ultraviolet (EUV) scanner is AMSL's very first High-NA scanner, and it has eagerly been awaited by Intel, who first placed an order for the machine back in 2018. Intel will be using the new machine to experiment with High-NA EUV before it deploys commercial grade Twinscan EXE:5200 tool for high-volume manufacturing (HVM) sometime in 2025. The announcement represents a major industry milestone that will have an impact not only on Intel, but eventually on the other leading-edge fabs as well.>> <<By getting High-NA tools earlier than its rivals, Intel not only be able to ensure that its tools produce desired results, but it has a chance to set the standards for the industry when it comes to High-NA manufacturing. For Intel this might mean getting a significant advantage over its rivals, Samsung Foundry and TSMC.>> ASML's First High-NA EUV Litho Scanner Arrives At Intel [UPDATED] (anandtech.com)