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To: Serge Collins who wrote (21506)	10/13/1998 2:22:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116764

Credibility Time for European Central Bank bank faces a socialist Germany FRANKFURT - Europe's fledgling central bank faces a new, riskier landscape when the bank's governing council meets Tuesday. In the month since Wim Duisenberg, the European Central Bank president, last presided over a council meeting, the ground has shifted under Europe's untested single currency, the euro, because of global financial volatility and Germany's move toward the political left. Mr. Duisenberg will face the challenge Tuesday night of publicly defending the euro's credibility while attempting to reassure the world's edgy financial markets, less than three months before the introduction of the currency on Jan. 1. Since the last meeting of the bank's council, Europe has lost some of the euro's most influential hard-money proponents with the Sept. 27 defeat of Chancellor Helmut Kohl, a conservative. And the victorious Social Democrats seem unwilling to shoulder Mr. Kohl's traditional role as Europe's leading monetary and fiscal disciplinarian. By calling for interest rate cuts and political leverage over a politically autonomous central bank, the Social Democrats risk ''smashing a lot of porcelain,'' in the words of a European monetary official. As a result, economists say, the post-Kohl euro risks being less resilient than the Deutsche mark that it was meant to replace. Bonn's new government ''is a benchmark change for the whole of Europe,'' said Thomas Mayer, senior economist in Frankfurt for Goldman, Sachs & Co. Without Mr. Kohl to cajole other European governments with his tireless creed of tight money and tight budgets as the bedrock philosophy of the euro, investor confidence in the euro could suffer, some economists argue. ''The euro has become more of a political and economic challenge and it will be harder to manage,'' said Adolf Rosenstock, head of European economics at Nomura International. The success of the euro is critical for the political and economic future of Europe. Europe's most ardent integrationists, such as Mr. Kohl, see the pan-European currency as the pillar of European integration. Sensing a new tone from the Social Democrats in Bonn following Germany's election, politicians outside Germany quickly proposed loose budget ideas that would have been anathema when Mr. Kohl reigned as the undisputed senior statesman of the European Union. The Italian government suggested using surplus central bank reserves for public spending. The French hinted at a reassessment of Mr. Kohl's ''stability pact,'' which imposes fines on governments that overshoot deficit targets. Bonn's new government set off alarm bells at the European Central Bank when it expressed an interest in influencing policy for both exchange rates and interest rates - the two most critical tools for the euro-11 economy. Under the Maastricht treaty, the new central bank manages interest rates and exchange rates without political interference. In what economists see as a threat to the bank's political autonomy, Oskar Lafontaine, who on Monday was nominated to head Germany's powerful Finance Ministry, has put pressure on the Bundesbank to lower interest rates. That quickly led to a tense public altercation with the Bundesbank president, Hans Tietmeyer, that has helped rattle the already unnerved financial markets. Mr. Tietmeyer is a veteran of political fights, and economists say Mr. Lafontaine's pressure tactics could encourage a defensive Mr. Tietmeyer to postpone any credit easing, even if a sagging economy might need it badly. Initially, the euro could strengthen as the European Central Bank is forced to defend its independence. The louder the calls for easier money, the more it may have to resist them. In the eyes of the markets, that could mean that German and European interest rates stay higher than they would without political pressure, Mr. Mayer said. ''Ironically, it pushes Tietmeyer into a corner where Oskar Lafontaine does not want him to be,'' Mr. Mayer said. Arguing that the strongest currencies are the most autonomous, Mr. Kohl insisted on a church-and-state separation of politics and the euro. He frequently balked when suggestions emanated from Italy or France to meddle with interest rates for political reasons. Further politicizing the euro, Mr. Lafontaine has joined Prime Minister Lionel Jospin of France in calling for exchange-rate targets for the euro against the dollar, effectively infringing on central bank management of the exchange rate. ''Obviously a lot depends on the future interaction between Wim Duisenberg and the politicians,'' said Stephen King, economist in London at HSBC James Capel. Raising the political pressure, Mr. Lafontaine has spoken out in favor of a ''European economic government'' to coordinate budget, tax and social policies for the 11 nations joining the euro. Analysts and political observers say they believe that what Mr. Lafontaine really wants is a ''political counterweight'' to the central bank - giving politicians a new vehicle of leverage at the central bank - something Mr. Kohl staunchly resisted. Taking a slap at Mr. Lafontaine, Mr. Tietmeyer dismissed the notion of government-managed exchange rates as ''lacking seriousness.'' Last week, Mr. Tietmeyer said he expected political pressure to increase further on the European Central Bank. On Monday, Mr. Tietmeyer again brushed aside Mr. Lafontaine's call for easier credit, saying interest rates were low enough to promote growth. The new environment has resurrected an old debate over the stability of the untested euro and old doubts about the ability to yoke 11 different national economic cultures under a single money and interest rate, Mr. Rosenstock said. Mr. Duisenberg enjoyed his staunchest support from Mr. Kohl. By contrast, the French barely bother to conceal their distaste for his pro-German hard-money views. Apart from the political shift, the maelstrom in global financial markets makes the euro's birth even trickier, economists say. The Deutsche mark, the anchor currency of the current European economic order, has risen rapidly in recent weeks. This has made it more difficult to manage exchange rates at a critical time. For the past three years, clever coordination of the dollar has helped fuel Europe's economic recoveries by keeping export prices competitive. International Herald Tribune, October 13, 1998

To: Serge Collins who wrote (21506)	10/13/1998 3:08:00 AM
From: brent hyatt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116764

I can sympathize with the underclass in Russia and only an idiot would hope they starve. That said however, being a U.S. citizen, I am not for helping any foreign poor until every child in my country has at least a decent meal once a day and a place to sleep at night. I'm sick of politicians adapting a bleeding heart attitude to every populace except their own. We have a rather large segment of our population that is destitute. It's easy to dismiss them as bums or dope addicts, but it simply isn't true. Many used to be productive citizens and worked in steel mills, auto factories, etc. Of course we wrapped our retarded arms around the "new globalization paradigm" and are now paying the price. Yet when greedy manufacturers get into trouble abroad, they want the unemployed U.S. taxpayer to bail them out.

To: Serge Collins who wrote (21506)	10/13/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116764

SC - a little revisionism. It was Great Britain and 'the Empire' who stood alone - the Russians made a pact with Hitler. It was after this pact came apart that these two regimes went to war. After that the Russian sacrifice was enormous - dwarfing that of the other combatants - and one has to include the millions of Russians murdered by Stalin. E

To: Serge Collins who wrote (21506)	10/13/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

Russians took the loans not English or Tanzanians. Nobody else to blame. When they took the money for the most part they invested it in the New York market in high risk securities. This is their business. Do we ask people where they invest loan money that we give domestically? So its a crime they should invest it with us? They lost the money on short squeezes and the fall of the NYSE. There was some socking it away to be sure but don;t be too quick to blame crookedness when just plain inexperience and incompetence will do. When LTCM failed do we say they are crooks. No, just stupid. The point is everybody is past 21 so to speak. We cannot keep bailing out blunderers who won't save and store. It's a never ending cycle. The problem lies with the immature and stupid banks who lent the money not the Russians. I would not have out a cent in Russia either. The equipment is out of date, the rules of employment are feudal, the markets are non-existent and overseas trade is not developed. You wanted them to rebuild farm tractors and really piss it away? Russia will take 25 years to modernize and penetrate markets. By then IF they are honest they can be loaned money. But overseas loans are totally non secured. I would not recommend it. Russia has to come to the Hague and pledge their undying devotion to principles of international business security. It is non-existent in Russia now. I think people like Lebed are the only answer really. Better they develop internally with the gov't guaranteeing loans to business and tying the Ruble to gold. This way the issuance of currency will not inflate. Their gov't has to print money. It is better than IMF loans. They can NEVER pay those back. Interest money is impossible to pay back except by favourable trade of products other countries do not have. Primakov is not an economist so he should be able to see the way to cutting loose from the western inflated economies where everything is based on cheap Asian labour and automation. The Russians can do that too. They are masters at computer science and industrial automation. EC<:-}

To: Serge Collins who wrote (21506)	10/13/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116764

"Americans and others often take the credit for defeating Hitler but any serious student of history knows that it was Russia that stood alone against the evil of the Third Reich while the Western powers were content to let the Russians bleed the Nazis white." They also bled the Ukranians white--5 million of them dying in one big atrocity called the 1930's. Many forget that England and other European countries almost entered the earlier conflict on the side of the Finns in the late 1930's against Russia, but hesitated because the Finns were actually mauling the Russian Bear at first. "By the way, as Westerners we are deeply indebted to Russia and its tremendous sacrifice in defeating fascism." Why don't you finish your sentence?--Defeating fascism so they could be free to murder another 25 or so million people, many their own. Russians never changed their ways IMO. According to the National Geographic Magazine, the Russians dropped toys boobytrapped with explosives to maim and leave fingerless and limbless thousands of Afghan children in the 1980's. They also used "yellow rain" on innocent villagers there, a weapon of mass destruction. We must have missed that one. I'm tired of hearing your kind of BS. If the US would have stayed neutral in the European theater Russia would have lost. As for Russians starving, when the iron curtain fell a few years ago and the call came out to help the starving Russains through the winter, CBS news showed a film of civilians desperate to save the potato crop in danger of rotting in the mud. Citizens were offered half of what they could pick. Who was out there picking in the miserable rain to avoid starving? A bunch of middle aged and elderly men and women. What a joke. That country is beyond help. I'd rather place my money in this Hemisphere.

To: Serge Collins who wrote (21506)	10/13/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: Don S.Boller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

"The Western Powers were content to let the Russians.............." So...tell me about the merchant marine convoys running the North Atlantic to Murmansk, etc. with supplies....had great fun with the German "Wolfpacks" (submarines)....................think you might want to read up on that. Best, Don

To: Serge Collins who wrote (21506)	10/14/1998 12:24:00 AM
From: Eashoa' M'sheekha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

World War II Casualties Country Military Civilian Total Soviet Union 13,600,000 7,700,000 21,300,000 China 1,324,000 10,000,000 11,324,000 Germany 3,250,000 3,810,000 7,060,000 Poland 850,000 6,000,000 6,850,000 Japan 1,506,000 300,000 1,806,000 Yugoslavia 300,000 1,400,000 1,700,000 Rumania* 520,000 465,000 985,000 France* 340,000 470,000 810,000 Hungary* 750,000 Austria 380,000 145,000 525,000 Greece* 520,000 Italy 330,000 80,000 410,000 Czechoslovakia 400,000 Great Britain 326,000 62,000 388,000 USA 295,000 295,000 Holland 14,000 236,000 250,000 Belgium 10,000 75,000 85,000 Finland 79,000 79,000 Canada 39,000 39,000 India 36,000 * 36,000 Australia 29,000 29,000 Spain 12,000 10,000 22,000 Bulgaria 19,000 2,000 21,000 New Zealand 12,000 12,000 South Africa 9,000 9,000 Norway 5,000 5,000 Denmark 4,000 4,000 Total: c 57 million The table above has been compiled from two sources:- 1. Alan Bullock - Hitler and Stalin: Parallel Lives pp987 2. The Times Atlas of the Second World War pp204,205 The highest estimate for each country was selected during compilation. The figures for these countries were very different in the two sources * The military deaths for Spain, a neutral country during the war, are attributed to volunteers in the Axis (4500) and Allied (7500) armies. According to source 2, above, 10,000 Spaniards died in concentration camps. These figures may be very inaccurate and may be reviewed later. *** This table does not take into account the 3 million Indians who died due to famine in 1943.