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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2667)	10/13/1998 8:39:00 PM
From: Rick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

I think the reason for the industry discussion and guidance a few weeks back was an attempt to assuage some fears that were building in the investment community. I think PeopleSoft felt that they were being broadbrushed unfairly with the entire sector, and this was their attempt to say "yeah, license revenue growth will slow a bit, but we're better than the rest of the industry, so don't sell". PeopleSoft has long enjoyed a large premium, not only due to 1)it's impressive fundamentals, but it's 2) perceived superior management, conservative accounting approach, and nice guy image. I believe that when general market conditions turned south, the latter component of the premium was thrown out the window. Essentially, I think 10 or more points of PeopleSoft's earnings multiple was a "good feelings" bonus. In a bad market or economy, investors aren't willing/able to give a "good feelings" bonus on the multiple. So, even though PeopleSoft management realized that it's stock should take a hit due to changing economic and industry conditions, they probably weren't aware that they would also lose the theoretical "good feelings" portion of the multiple. In this respect, I think they were probably a bit complacent or naive. Anyway, it's no longer a problem for them as clearly the market has removed the "good feelings" bonus. Take it for what it's worth, Rick.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2667)	10/13/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: Raptor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

Michelle and others .. I think we have a bunch of "nervous nellies" here.. and I'll admit to some trepidation - only because I have lost a small fortune on paper. The 'market' seems to have discounted PSFT for about as much bad news as one could imagine - short of insolvency. I don't see how the report next week could make things worse. The question is will it be good enough to make things better?