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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (39980)	12/18/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

"I've tested and used voice recognition systems for many years (they're not there yet)" Earlie, I have a good friend that is an Engineer at Dragon Systems. Could you comment a little further on this for me? Have you tried Naturally Speaking and what is your assessment of the weaknesses? tia.

To: Earlie who wrote (39980)	12/18/1998 8:40:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

EArlie, Please, it doesn't matter if you are right or not. We will still ridicule your call. <G> MB

To: Earlie who wrote (39980)	12/18/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, Can you share some of the data (quantitative and / or anecdotal) that supports your point of view? I agree that FA would indicate that capital spending (hence information technology) is probably going south, but I haven't the data to support the PC market bear view. Peter /* edit oops, reading further in the thread, I see you did Message 6898527 however, when do you expect the quantitative data to show up, especially, what would you look for as leading indicators?

To: Earlie who wrote (39980)	12/18/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, great post and thanks for your insight. Have a few things to bounce off of you. 1. I work in a corporate LAN environment on NT. We're running Pentium 133s w/ 32 meg ram on our systems. We're pretty heavy users - 10+ apps running at once at times. I find the slow performance intolerable to the degree that by the time my system has responded I sometimes forget what I was doing (20 to 30 second lags). --Not that I'm sure of what I'm doing anyhow<g> In my department at least there is a serious performance problem w/ PCs in the LAN environment. My home PC on Windows 95 works much better, but I suspect that hogs like NT and big programs like MS Office are causing frustration in similar office environments as this. 2. Voice recognition. I tried Dragon's recent version and found it to be almost good enough. I wouldn't use it because I can type better, but voice recognition is nearly viable IMO. 3. Internet speed is still the crucial issue to me. Speed that up and then processing power at the server level becomes a bottleneck. Do you agree/disagree? I can see heavy demand coming for internet servers, as more of what I consider "my computer" becomes located and maintained on a web server somewhere. Personalized channels like Yahoo or Excite are just the beginning. In 10 to 20 years I can see many of my files/programs/etc being based on the web. Thanks for any comments, Shane

To: Earlie who wrote (39980)	12/19/1998 12:39:00 AM
From: james paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, I have no expertise in the field that you write so confidently about, but from what I've read & can understand I think that the sox stocks are ridiculously overpriced. My problem is that I've been knocked out of short positions because of this bubble & the nagging doubt that maybe there will be recovery in the industry. I lost with AMAT, made a fairly good gain with NVLS but am hesitant at this point to do anything but very short term trading. What I would like to know, if you would'nt mind divulging it, is your actual area of expertise in the industry. TIA. James

To: Earlie who wrote (39980)	12/19/1998 12:44:00 AM
From: james paterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, I should have read your profile first. I guess that I can safely assume that you have many contacts in the industry. James

To: Earlie who wrote (39980)	12/19/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Respond to of 132070

Earlie,>>> I'm also estimating that this year (1998), the industry will experience the first year ever of FLAT (year-over-year) UNIT growth and DECLINING (year-over-year) revenue growth. Bluntly, this is a disaster for the industry. 1999 will be worse. <<< How do you think this will play out? When do you think the PC/computer industry will bounce back, if ever? (I'm assuming you don't think that this is just a fad - like the hoola hoop or cabbage patch doll or such). PC penetration into US homes is 30 to 40 percent depending on who you are to believe. I have no idea what the penetration rate is in the rest of the world. The European community for all practical purposes have or will have the same size and standard of living as we have here in North America, if not now, some time in the near future. Intel has reported that they expect China to be a bigger PC market than Japan in 1999. I can't believe that India is that far behind. The Far East generally account for 25-30% of the world market in this area. The consumer market accounts for only about 30% of the US market - will that ratio hold for the rest of the world? How long will it take before the rest of the world catch up with us, where we are now, and how much growth is left in the US market? Or do you think we have peaked? As for new applications - how long do you think it will take before voice recognition becomes ubigitous. And, what what do you think of audio and video possiblities on the Internet? How about Enterprize computing - is there any growth possibilities in that area? In general, what are some of the possibilities for computers to improve productivity and otherwise improve lives - is there any prospects in these areas? Any thoughts along these lines? Thanks, Mary

To: Earlie who wrote (39980)	12/20/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: geewiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Earlie, Nice to have all your comments this weekend! Noticed the following in recent Financial Times article of Ericsson warning over earnings; ERICSSON WARNS OVER PROFITS; Financial Times December 11, l998 "Ericsson, the world's third-largest supplier of cellular phones behind Nokia and Motorola, also said handset margins were being squeezed by a shift in demand towards cheaper phones.....The trend was particularly pronounced in western Europe, where one third of handsets sold were low specification phones" .......... So Earlie, which of the chipies will feel this glut? My guess is this bodes ill for mixed signal group. LLTC gets about one third of revenue from communications sector, about the same as comes from boxmakers. Holiday best, art