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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: On the QT who wrote (88152)1/8/1999 5:36:00 AM
From: TechMkt  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
Just wanted to post this again in case someone missed it. Great news about DELL.

Fez
_________________________
TBR Completes First of Quarterly Distribution & Fulfillment Satisfaction Study

HAMPTON, N.H.--(Business Wire)--Jan. 7, 1999--

Delivery Time, Product Availability and Accountability Cited as

Key Differentiators between Vendor Direct and Traditional Channels

Technology Business Research's 4th quarter 1998 Distribution and Fulfillment Customer Satisfaction Study marks the commencement of a new quarterly research program designed to track perceptions of the channel from the viewpoint of end users, supplemented by the channels' satisfaction with their vendor partners. Based on a total of 350 interviews with end users and leading channel players, the study is an expansion of TBR's quarterly end user primary research, which also includes the Corporate IT Buying Behavior and Customer Satisfaction Study, a measure of end user satisfaction with their primary hardware systems vendors. Customer satisfaction levels with channel players by type, including corporate resellers such as Compucom (Nasdaq:CMPC), Inacom (NYSE:ICO), and Vanstar (NYSE:VST), local/specialty VARs, and direct vendors such as Dell (Nasdaq:DELL) and Gateway (NYSE:GTW) are part of this in-depth analysis.

The key recurring issues cited throughout the study, among end users and channel players alike, are delivery time and product availability. Out of box quality, accountability for hardware repairs, and ease of doing business are also among the principal areas that differentiate the direct vendors from the corporate resellers, in particular. In addition to product availability, end users indicate pricing/volume discounting, specials/incentives, and service/support as critical factors motivating them to shop around between the channels.

End users cite corporate reseller weaknesses including delivery, availability, global presence, some service/support areas, primarily parts replacement and complete systems repair. The exception is Inacom, which is consistently rated higher by its end user customers in the sample than its competitors in the same class. Local and specialty VARs score relatively well for ease of doing business and on-site support and score higher than the corporate resellers for delivery and availability. Principal weaknesses of local/specialty VARs include global presence and returns policies. End user customers of the direct vendors, Dell and Gateway, score their vendors significantly higher than the traditional channels for delivery time, availability, accountability, and service and support, with the exceptions of technical support response and on-site service which are cited as shortcomings for Gateway. Dell also scores well above the norm for global service/support availability, systems customization, and hardware evaluation/selection advice.

On the issue of loyalty towards the channel, the study shows that about one in five end users interviewed has switched channel partners in the past 12 months and Dell appears to be the primary beneficiary. Many of these companies report switching channels due to a requirement to consolidate the number of vendors from whom they buy and for standardization and cost reduction purposes.

From the viewpoint of the channel, the three primary hardware vendors are all perceived as failing in their commitment to fair policies with the channel although there are varying degrees of dissatisfaction among the channels. Compaq (NYSE:CPQ) is perceived as the least satisfactory vendor partner due to inconsistencies and changes in its Ts & Cs (returns, inventory, rebate policies, etc.) as well as a view that the vendor is disloyal to its channel base by moving to a direct model. IBM (NYSE:IBM), perceived as not living up to its promises in the areas of returns and inventory policies, price protection and margin sharing, suffers to a greater degree for its longstanding product availability problems, while receiving very high marks for its warranty terms. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HWP) appears to be the "winner" in that its terms and conditions, while rated significantly higher than its competitors only average around a B-, are at least considered more consistent, and receives high marks for ease of doing business, technical support response, and overall distribution strategy.

Additional areas covered in the research study include Web site usage and satisfaction, service and support issues (extent to which companies' internal support staff solves problems, 3rd party contracts/extended warranties, DOA accountability, and system failure tracking), and perceptions of whitebox and channel assembly issues.

The end user sample consists primarily of MIS/IT or purchasing managers at medium and large companies (500 or more employees) who buy a minimum of 100 systems annually. The sample represents an installed base of over two million desktops, servers and notebooks and a purchase intent of over 600,000 systems over the next 12 months. The channel sample consists of purchasing, operations and marketing managers at the leading systems integration, corporate reseller, distributor, and specialty VAR companies. A complimentary copy of the Executive Summary for this report is available at TBR's Web site at www.tbri.com.



To: On the QT who wrote (88152)1/8/1999 6:01:00 AM
From: Sig  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
Re: Whisper numbers

<<<Thank you for giving us some first hand insight as to how your company arrives at the "whisper number". I found that approach logical. In fact the posts of some of our fellow "threadsters" also
presented points that also had good logic to it. Unfortunately, there really, to my knowledge, is no one accepted to all "whisper number". >>>>
I hope you can forgive me for making a few comments in regard to the effect of whisper number
IMO the whisper number affects the stock price for only a few days after earnings are announced.Important for a trader, irrelevant long term.
Here is a URL I find useful at all times for looking at Dells historic performance:
htt
investor.msn.com
(If you have used the chart, ignore the following)(G)
*****************************************
Some useful tips on using the chart( I'm still learning)Hehe
If you zoom in ( several times) you can obtain a chart of more and more recent data, or by zooming out obtain all the historic data
Or by 'clicking' the mouse on a particular area creates a vertical line, moving right or left while holding the mouse button down shades a grey area, after which one can zoom in and only that data covered by the gray area will be shown.
By pointing the mouse on the curves at any point the actual values
of a stock or a reference stock you have added will be shown in numerals in the upper white band. And comparative stocks can be included on the chart.
*********************
Here is what I remember on Dell earnings for last 6 quarters:
Beat estimates by one, by one,by one, by one, by two, and by 1 cents.
Rather boring, but always very close to the whisper number.
( I did not adjust these Nos.for splits, but makes little diff,)
What happens to Dell in a few days after earnings:
May -10%
Aug -9%
Nov -9%
Mr Eckard's &&^%%* speech on Nov 11, the day before last earnings
did not help Dell at all. Whether we attribute Dells lackluster performance to the speech or to missing the whisper makes little difference, it still went down the usual(and predictable) 9% in price just after earnings.
Summary:
If you add the industry average to the MSN chart, Dell follows it like a a shadow while you walk. With todays comments of a 41% increase
in computer sales, Dell should move up.
Good luck, and Holy cow, look at them Globex futures!
Sig



To: On the QT who wrote (88152)1/8/1999 10:45:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
QT: you raise some interesting points, but I have a different perspective than you. I believe that the price of any stock is based on the collective perception of the investing public concerning the earnings outlook for any particular company. This perception is guided in part bay analysts, but it is also guided by rumors and gossip, including what we opine here. Collectively, these sources of intelligence constitute the whisper number.

The idea of an "official" whisper number is silly, because it has a life of its own. That would be like trying to certify some rumors as "official". So I think that the idea of manipulating a whisper number is nothing more nor less than trying to manipulate rumors and gossip.

What should be clear to all of us is that "analysts" expectations are manipulated all the time by two forces: first, the companies themselves wish to manage investor's expectations by setting the bar low enough so that they can consistently produce "earnings surprises"; second, by the brokerage houses who are loathe to issue honest analysis for fear of losing a real or potential banking relation.

TTFN,
CTC



To: On the QT who wrote (88152)1/8/1999 11:51:00 AM
From: DellFan  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
 
*Whisper numbers* - One last thought

I like your thinking, On the QT. The fact is that, as investors, we have to deal with whisper numbers, like it or not.

But what I hope doesn't happen, and IMHO, probably won't happen, is that MD apparently never shoots for either a whisper number or analysts' estimates. His only concern is, and should be, managing the company and continuing to optimize resource utilization. I admire him for that.

By the way, he is involved in another company, whose name escapes me right now, which has filed (or is soon filing), to go public. The company has developed software to manage resources from cash to materials purchase to sales to delivery to conversion to cash again. His specialty, and apparently his avocation.

I keep meaning to keep an eye on it, but my-oh-my, times fugit (latin for time flies).