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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenne who wrote (33824)	1/9/1999 11:08:00 AM
From: Cosmo Daisey	Read Replies (11) \| Respond to of 164684

Jenne, If you buy 100 to 200 shares of AMZN now and hold it for five years you will probably be a millionaire. Sure there will be downturns and upturns but that's what makes a market. AMZN is using the AOL business model that has made them a blue chip internet stock. The model is keep investing in the company to get customers now and worry about profits later. AMZN has a huge cash flow, they sell you a book and get your payment and then pay for the book about 14 days later. This is a huge resource for them. Home Depot is successful for the same reason, they sell you the goods before they pay for them. Five years from now it won't matter whether you paid $190 or $90 for the stock. Borders Books announced lower expected earnings, take a guess why? There are only so many books that will be sold each year and AMZN is cutting the bricks and mortar retailers out of the market. I ordered three books and had them sent as gifts, no mailing time for me, credit card already on file, no trip to Borders, best price for the books. Speaking of credit cards, this is another reason AMZN will grow. Your card number is on file. If you order a book from someone else you have to go through the card info process again, this brings customer loyalty because it's easier at AMZN. Our investment is on the right track. The price action Friday is good and shows sign of continued strength. The price hit an all time high, pulled back sharply but closed well above the low for the day. This is the most bullish sign you will see. I doubled my position on the pullback. cdaiseyPhD@heliopause.com

To: Jenne who wrote (33824)	1/9/1999 11:29:00 AM
From: Peter Bernhardt	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 164684

.. I cant think why other than it is quite overbought.. but amzn is owned by many institutions and .. oh well.. Im freaked. Help? As someone who has believed for quite some time that this stock is so grossly overvalued as to defy description, I read the above with a mixture of both sympathy and (I regret this) some gratification. Why am I sadly gratified to hear from one of the unfortunate individuals who bought this stock at yesterday's high? Because it provides evidence that this mania has now reached a stage where inexperienced investors will buy on speculation without considering much beyond the fact that the price keeps going up and up and up. Contrary to your belief, AMZN has negligible institutional sponsorship (as of 12/31, about 5%). In the early stages of a company's growth, this could actually be read as a positive. But not here, not when the stock price is at such ridiculous levels that no fund manager with an ounce of brains would consider making an investment. At what point, it must be asked, will this insanity come to a close? The bubble burst? When AMZN's market cap reaches the total value of all books sold in the world each year (and it's not too far off)? When inexperienced investors realize what a market cap actually is? Or a price to sales ratio? Unfortunately, no one really knows. Next week, for example, AMZN could continue riding up higher and higher (greater fools may come along to rescue those such as yourself who, it seems, are relying on momentum and good luck to compensate for sound research and good sense). Indeed, this may prove a buying opportunity as the stock goes on to triple or quadruple -- once AMZN reaches the milestone of achieving a cap surpassing the total of all book sales worldwide, the next step might be a value equal to the total sales of everything in the world (Mr. Blodgett may very well be preparing such a rationalization for release shortly after Amazon reports yet another quarter of record losses). As has been said many times before by many others on this thread, this stock is not for investors, but gamblers. I truly wish those who got stung Friday may get out with a minimal amount of financial pain and that they learn something from the example AMZN is providing us -- that outrageous speculative profits can just as easily become disasterous losses, that money is more often than not made in the stock market over the long haul, that those looking for a quick buck usually end up going broke. That this is gambling, not investing. Sorry for the sanctimony. I guess I've earned it after being so wrong about this stock for so long (but, as Glenn has pointed out time and again, not wrong about the company). - Peter B

To: Jenne who wrote (33824)	1/9/1999 11:30:00 AM
From: ChinuSFO	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 164684

<< ....Unfortunately my first time in amzn and I foolishly bought around the high in the morning ... now Im very scared... what do you think will happen on Monday..... >> I do not understand all this ruckus about Amazon.com It did close on the positive side. some after hour trades indicate positive side trades. Management has demonstrated their long term business growth goal by opening up a new center in Nevada to keep pace with the very highly likely demand in e-tailing. These to me are similar to fundamentals. In the early days of semiconductors, people were afraid to use computers, the semiconductor industry was not readily welcome. But the likes of Intel with the foresight went and built the infrastructure (manufacturing, R&D etc.) and today they are the leaders. And the same is the story with MSFT. So my point is that AMZN has the infrastructure for being a leader in e-tailing. As more and more people jump on board e-tailing, AMZN is ready, willing and able to meet the needs. Granted, books is a low margin item. But books and CD are the only items that I can sample in a local store (if I want to) and then order it via AMZN. When people start to buy clothes, shoes etc. the who knows, AMZN may jump in. But the important thing is they have built their E-STORES. So my friend, do not panic. Let the MMs, profit takers, daytraders move in after the 3-1 split. When the dust settles in the next week or two, AMZN will restart its climb, if not at a phenomenal pace, but a climb nonetheless. Happy weekend Chinmoy

To: Jenne who wrote (33824)	1/9/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: Bo Le	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

> Unfortunately my first time in amzn and I foolishly bought around the high in the morning ... now Im very scared... < Jenne, First, lots of people like you. So don't feel too bad. Here is my suggestion for you. On Monday open, sell some (if you have 200 shares, sell 2 contracts, if you have 100 shares, sell 1 contract, etc.) AMZN April 160 call. You should be able to get a price around $50. After that, if your AMZN shares get called away, your total proceed will be $210 per share. You make some money. However, if the AMZN price keep falling, say to $130, buy your April 160 call back but sell April 120 call (or July 120 call). You can keep do these until your AMZN shares get called away. You will come out with a smile. In any case, don't buy more at lower price to lower your per share cost. AMZN is overvalued at around $200, it is still overvalued at $20. You have only limited resource. It is a sure way to loss all your money if you average down. I am amused to read your friend GST saying he/she doubled his/her position on AMZN when it fall 30 points. As far as I know, most AMZN investor are fully invested, even lot of them are using margin. AMZN is extended, they are extended more. Bo Le

To: Jenne who wrote (33824)	1/9/1999 12:47:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Anyone buying the 'Thing' @ these prices should be scared to death. Some people thrive on fear. Maybe your one.

To: Jenne who wrote (33824)	1/9/1999 6:49:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Jenne -- I hate giving one-to-one advice on exactly what you should do, especially with a live wire like AMZN. But since you asked -- first, don't put another cent into this stock. Second, if you bought any stock on margin, sell it as soon as you can. The opening bell is risky, not knowing how this will play on Monday in the first hour. But sometime during the day you should head for the exit with whatever you bought on borrowed money. Third, if you are playing with money that you cannot afford to lose, look for a chance to get out on Monday anywhere near what you paid. I would take anything above 175, but you might see 185 sometime during the day. Higher than that -- who knows? The evidence is strong that the trend is shifting and the risks are very, very high. Just as the was 'no end to high it can go' now there is 'no end to how low it can go'. AMZN going to 100 or less? Very possible. Less than 50? Also very possible. Good luck