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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 12:41:00 AM
From: Pruguy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
your wrong...you are looking at the company from the viewpoint of a computer geek, not from a practical consumer point of view. I too am experienced on the net and I like aol and see where their strengths are. Nothing is perfect, but I and the MAJORITY of consumers prefer aol as their isp or internet central point. You will drive yourself nuts if you ignore the masses when trying to pick winners.....just look beta and vhs and aapl and msft. It's reality. aol is the gorilla and as long as they don't get arrogant, they will stay that way



To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: Diamond Jim  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
"Favorite Stocks ATHM, EGRP"
==
Okay genius, E Trade is great? Obviously not but you still like their stock I see.



To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 9:07:00 AM
From: J. P.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 41369
 
I'm one of those sheep that recommend AOL!

This is why, AOL has millions of users who have loyalty to the product, and they're adding more every day. They're not just an ISP, but they're sort of a community. I can hear you scoffing at this notion, but it is an incredible value added. A regular ISP is nothing more than a winsocket connection, what fun is that?

The feature that I like most is the 'buddy list'. You can instantly communicate with friends and family that are on AOL. I use this feature constantly, and it saves me tons of phone calls. Plus it's an effective way to communicate.

Even though I'm soon getting TCI @Home service, I'll still keep my AOL with a TCP/IP connection, which is like 9 or 10 bucks a month.

And remember I'm a telecommunications software professional, so I'm no novice to technology, and I still love AOL. AOL will soon be ubiquitous and available with cable access and xDSL, if the information I'm reading is correct. I believe they'll use this leverage to exponentially increase not only their annuity streams of revenue from added subscribers, but their advertising revenues.

I'm buying as much as I can with a several year horizon.



To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: ChinuSFO  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
<< .....I ask one question:
Do you know what the hell AOL is? (or 2) Will that product be needed in the future?!?!??..... >>

Sir, AOL is a CYBER COMMUNITY. With one click of the button, I have access to the Internet by category. I also get a e-mail address, buddy chat and et al. If you are good at computers than you like UNIX. IF not then like WINDOWS. Windows is a bunch of crap, but nonethe same is most widely used and accepted. UNIX???

Need I explain more on its analogy with AOL? Let me know if I need to do so. I will refrain from doing so and not insult your intelligence. But if you allow me to do so, I will take the pains to explain, why investors will make tons of money on AOL.

Regards

Chinmoy



To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: RocketMan  Respond to of 41369
 
Your handle is very descriptive LOL



To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: Cosmo Daisey  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 41369
 
Sponge Brain,
Cable connections will be a part of the future and their is room for them. The phone Co's are testing ASDL modems in many areas, ASDL works about as fast as cable. There are still a lot of areas that don't have cable but most houses have a phone. The first utility that goes down in a storm in my area is cable. The reluctance of the Bells to offer ASDL is because they are charging big bucks for T1 lines that do what the less expensive ASDL's will do. They don't want to lose the business but the cable's are breathing down their necks. AOL is a content provider and millions of poeple are looking for that content. AOL is a huge company that is responsive to the changing needs of the public. AOL is the leader, cover those shorts and go long.
CD



To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: OD Bobo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
It's exactly this thinking that kept me out of AOL until I finally
came to my senses.

From an investing point of view AOL needs to be looked at for
what it is and what it is becoming, from the perspective of the
average computer user. Most people know less about computers
than they do about investing, and when they buy a new computer
and they want to go online, what are the only two words they
know? This has happened and will continue to happen, as the
computer/online population grows. This will add to AOL's
customer base, which is huge already and only getting bigger by
the day. It will take a long time to dismantle a customer base of
this size (can you say Microsoft?!), and AOL has enough resources
to adjust to the changes of the immediate future, whether it be cable or DSL or "whatever."

AOL's proprietary services are junk and anything they offer can
be found better on the web for free


I couldn't agree more. But that won't prevent it from growing and
growing and growing. I've told numerous friends and family the
same thing, I told them to talk to me before they go online and I'll
hook them up with a good ISP. Before I knew it I was getting
e-mail from everyone and their sister @ aol.com ...

Think as an investor.

all, of course, IMO



To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 2:54:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 41369
 
You know, you are absolutely right! And while we're on the subject of convenience don't you agree that DOS is so much better than Windows also, no huge memory overhead, you can get by very nicely with a 16MHz machine and a 20 Megabyte HD. All of those fools who buy those fancy computers with all kinds of hardware they don't need. Wordperfect for DOS is the answer. Who needs all of those fancy GUI doodads! And when consumers realize this Microsoft will tumble.

I also believe that the internal combustion engine is a fad, and we need to go back to the gold standard. And television is just a convenience for the weak of mind who don't know how to read.

That's why AOL will fail!

TTFN,
CTC



To: SpongeBrain who wrote (2731)1/16/1999 4:51:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
SpongeBrain:WSJ: AOL,cable,AT&T."While this thread sleeps, AOL hard at work",
TA
(note: "Some observers believe that AOL, in particular, is using regulatory pressure to help it cut a deal with AT&T.")

================================

Outcome of Battle in Oregon
Stands to Shape E-Commerce
By BRYAN GRULEY
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Jan,15,'99

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Is it time to regulate a powerful and lucrative new gateway to the Internet? Eight citizens of this city and its environs have volunteered the nation's first answer: A reluctant yes.

Their decision matters because the world is witnessing the birth of an industry -- with the Internet as its vehicle -- that is motivating regular people to spend huge sums of money by clicking a computer mouse. Like the auto and steel industries of the early 20th century, online commerce is changing the way the economy works.

While the shift has been driven chiefly by the high-tech industry, regulators in cities, states and Washington, D.C., will play a big role in deciding whether it is fueled by competition, dominated by monopolists, or hamstrung with regulation. Policy makers are writing, or choosing not to write, rules that will determine who gets access to the pipelines that connect people to the Internet, and who fills those pipes with the stuff people want to watch, listen to, play with and buy.

Arguments for Access

Indeed, those are the issues already confronting regulators in AT&T Corp.'s proposed $40.9 billion acquisition of cable giant Tele-Communications Inc. Consumer groups, Internet-service providers, or ISPs, and at least one Baby Bell telephone company want the Federal Communications Commission and municipal cable regulators to require AT&T to make TCI's cable network -- reaching about one-third of the nation's homes -- available to any and all rivals who want to funnel Internet services through that network.

The reason: AT&T plans to spend billions of dollars to make TCI's network capable of delivering Internet service as much as 100 times speedier than what most consumers now see. This "broadband" technology provides, via cable modem, a fatter pipe through which AT&T can simultaneously supply video images, phone calls and Web pages that pop up as quickly as television channels. AT&T plans to offer this service exclusively through TCI's affiliate, AtHome.

But here's the rub. Consumers who covet AtHome's high-speed service but want to use, in addition, America Online Inc. or another ISP can do so only if they first agree to pay $40 a month or so for AtHome. That, contend AOL and others demanding direct access to the broadband network, would give AT&T too much control over the future of this industry.

Quite the contrary, argues AT&T. The Basking Ridge, N.J., company says it is offering what Congress wanted when it deregulated telecommunications three years ago -- direct competition to the Baby Bells, which have a lock on local phone service. Even if it was technologically practical -- AT&T says it isn't -- AT&T doesn't think it should have to open its network to rivals that aren't taking the risk of buying and upgrading it. Such a burden would discourage other companies from investing in broadband technology too, the company argues.

'The Larger Competition'

"Is it more important to give people the flexibility to define 'access' the way they want, or is it more important to get competition for the Baby Bells?" posits Neil Goldschmidt, the former Portland mayor, Oregon governor and U.S. transportation secretary who has lobbied on AT&T's behalf. "I think there's a huge good in getting the larger competition."

While the cable pipe offers a handsome platform, it isn't the be-all, end-all of broadband. U S West and other Baby Bells are rolling out their own speedy Internet services, and wireless and satellite technologies show promise. Also, companies that snipe at each other over policy might turn around and become business partners tomorrow. Some observers believe that AOL, in particular, is using regulatory pressure to help it cut a deal with AT&T.

In Portland, the Mount Hood Cable Regulatory Commission, an eight-member panel of unpaid appointees, recommended last month that AT&T be required to offer "nondiscriminatory access" to its cable platform. Elected city and Multnomah County officials adopted the rule -- the first of its kind -- as a condition of approving the transfer of TCI's cable licenses to AT&T. "We think this is a monopoly issue, we think this is a competitive issue, we think this is a compelling public-policy issue," says Sue Diciple, a Portland business consultant and Mount Hood commissioner.

AT&T has rejected the condition, contending that local regulators have no legal authority to impose it. The company this week told local officials that it would file a lawsuit in federal court to have the provision declared illegal. Meantime, Portland risks missing out on high-speed Internet service, says James Cicconi, AT&T's general counsel. "Consumers wind up losing," he says.

The Justice Department has already approved the merger, and the FCC isn't expected to impose an access condition on the deal itself. But the agency may consider separately whether all cable networks offering high-speed Internet service should be opened to rivals. That could take a year or more.

Portland as Trailblazer

City regulators don't think they can afford to wait. In Los Angeles, Denver, Seattle, San Francisco and other cities, officials who oversee TCI's cable franchises are considering access rules. While AT&T has obtained approvals from more than 700 of the 1,000 communities that must approve the merger, the company is concerned enough that its top lawyer, Mr. Cicconi, has taken to visiting with city officials. But some cities are pressing on, following the trail blazed by Portland.

On Sept. 2 last year, three months after AT&T announced its plan to acquire TCI, the companies filed a routine application to transfer TCI cable franchises in Portland and Multnomah County to AT&T. The petition went to the Mount Hood Cable Regulatory Commission.

The commission's namesake is a mountain that lies east of Portland and is often shrouded in the low gray-and-blue sky of winter. The panel makes recommendations on cable regulation to elected city and county officials, who usually follow the advice when making decisions. The commissioners toil over tedious matters of franchise compliance for no pay and in virtual anonymity. Their last controversy involved an obscenity-law proponent who wanted to broadcast a public-access program called "Orgy TV." (He didn't get on.)

"We do this for the love of our city," says commissioner Ruth Miles, who co-manages an office building and runs her own graphic-arts business. "It's not something you talk about at a cocktail party."

The AT&T-TCI deal thrust the two women and six men into the middle of a fierce debate between AT&T and an unlikely coalition of opponents: the local Baby Bell, U S West Inc.; and a group of mostly small local ISPs, which themselves have been quietly abetted by AOL, the nation's largest such provider.

Ironic Alignments

U S West lent a touch of irony. The Denver-based Bell had just finished battling the local ISPs over a similar issue before Oregon phone regulators. The company had resisted opening its phone lines to rivals who wanted to use them to supply enhanced Internet service. After U S West lost that fight, it aligned with the ISPs and AOL to demand that AT&T's cable network be opened.

They found a sympathetic ear in David Olson, the Mount Hood panel's paid staff director and, according to his e-mail address, "cableczar." Amid the clutter of paperwork and Diet Coke cans in his downtown office, Mr. Olson, 46 years old, has won a national reputation as an aggressive regulator.

He had his own Internet epiphany three years ago, when his father contracted lymphoma. Mr. Olson jumped on his PC and in minutes was downloading the latest research papers and clinical trials on cancer, which he packed off to his dad. "I said to myself, 'This is unbelievable,'" he recalls. He has used the AtHome product, and says it's "terrific."

He says he had thought about opening up cable networks before AT&T agreed to buy TCI, but the deal crystallized his thinking. With a gigantic phone company planning to bundle voice, video and data services, he felt it was crucial that its precious pipeline be opened to others, with fair reimbursement to AT&T.

When U S West and AT&T "are going to dominate the two wires that go into everybody's home, from pauper to king, they need to have that wire be available to serve other interests but their own," he says. "That's been the core of telecommunications policy for years."

Across the country, AOL was making the same argument to Washington regulators. Eventually Mr. Olson was speaking with Steven Teplitz, a Washington lobbyist for AOL. Mr. Teplitz also made contact with Richard Horswell, the 27-year-old head of a Portland ISP and president of a trade group representing 40 Oregon ISPs.

Forming a United Front

Mr. Horswell says his group had been aware of the issue, but his discussions with Mr. Teplitz "really helped focus our strategy." AOL hired a local lobbyist to work for the group and had its lawyers prepare a supporting brief. AOL and the ISPs also talked with U S West "to get our ducks in a row," Mr. Horswell says. "When it comes down to an issue as big as this, you can't afford not to work together."

In a Sept. 30 letter to AT&T, Mr. Olson asked if the company planned to offer ISPs access to the high-speed service "on nondiscriminatory terms and conditions."

AT&T responded in subsequent letters that At Home is a cable service and thus isn't bound by rules that require telephone companies to make their lines available to ISPs at a fair price. Nor did AT&T think the city had authority to impose such requirements; in AT&T's view, that more properly falls to the FCC (although AT&T doesn't think the FCC legally can require it to open its cable network either).

Cable laws include a number of requirements for third-party access to a network, but none cite Internet service. "It clearly is a gray area," Mr. Olson says. But "I come from an environment that says, unless the federal [law] says you can't do something, you can."

A Mind of Its Own

Oregon has long had an independent streak. The state has led the nation in confronting such touchy issues as assisted suicide and marijuana for medicinal use. Its autonomy showed again at the Mount Hood panel's Nov. 16 meeting, in a crowded conference room at a local community college.

Mr. Horswell, whose Europa Communications posts ads in the restrooms of some of Portland's many pubs, pleaded the ISPs' case. The commissioners found it compelling, in part because some of the small ISPs had been diligent about getting service to rural areas where bigger providers wouldn't want to bother. It was important that they not be crushed by AT&T, Ms. Diciple, the commissioner, says.

AT&T thought these small ISPs were mistaken. Many probably wouldn't be able to use the AtHome architecture, the company says, and even if they could, the network couldn't handle many ISPs without risking a slowdown. But George Vradenburg, AOL's senior vice president for global and strategic policy, says the ISPs might be able to show the cable people a few things about expanding capacity. "I have enormous optimism in engineers," Mr. Vradenburg says.

The panel voted 5-2, with one member absent, to recommend imposing the access condition. Even those favoring the condition were torn, though. As a vice president at hard-driving Nike Inc. in nearby Beaverton, Commissioner Robert Kreinberg says he could sympathize with AT&T. "I'm not a big regulatory fan," he says. "But I think there are some issues where regulation is needed to maintain a sense of competition and fair play. It's like if I owned all the airports in the world and I owned an airline and said only my airline could land there."

Yet it's clear that the Mount Hood panel didn't address some questions that easily could arise if their rule sticks. For example, how would regulators ensure that AT&T doesn't favor certain ISPs over others? And what if the network really can't handle a limitless number of ISPs?

"We all agree this is a debate that would have been better to have at the FCC," Ms. Miles says. "But in the vacuum of leadership from the federal level, we have made this decision hoping they'll take notice."

Nor did AT&T address those broader issues at the November meeting, preferring to focus on the legal aspects. After the vote, AT&T lawyer Richard Thayer told Mr. Olson, "I hope you have a big budget." He wasn't smiling, Mr. Olson says. A spokeswoman for AT&T says Mr. Thayer was referring to potential legal costs for his company as well and didn't mean to sound aggressive.

Unanimous Backing

Efforts to reach a compromise failed, and on Dec. 14, the Mount Hood panel decided to reaffirm its earlier vote, and this time, they unanimously supported the access condition. Three days later, Portland city and Multnomah County commissioners adopted the recommendation with only one dissenting vote.

AT&T has since refused to sign off on the city and county license transfers because they contain the access condition. That, in effect, means the company's petition for the license transfers is denied. No immediate change in cable-TV service is expected because AT&T and TCI aren't expected to close their deal for several weeks, at least.

Earlier this week, AT&T and TCI officials paid courtesy calls on city and county officials to warn them that a lawsuit could be imminent. But AT&T held its legal fire while Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, a Democrat, intervened in the hopes of brokering a compromise, sources close to the matter said.

Mr. Olson, the Mount Hood staffer, is scheduled to fly to Los Angeles today to brief cable officials there about the commission's actions. The Californians are paying his airfare.