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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (15242)	2/10/1999 9:09:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Thanks for the link to Jan's market update Seems like a rather bleak picture if I am reading it right Most of my knowledge of the status of P&F indicators is from OJ -- and it seems that it has been remarkably accurate in catching tops and bottoms over the past few months -- which is about as long as I have followed these signals. I am curious about one thing: when the various P&F indicators give a sell signal, why do you not recommend shorting stocks as opposed to being in cash? It would seem like the thing to do when prices are likely to head down -- and then cover when the indicators flash buy signals. Am I missing something??

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (15242)	2/10/1999 9:10:00 PM
From: Kona	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Yikes! I have the DWA site in another browser window and I'm going looking at the SPX and after 1150/40 I can't see any real support until 1080. 1120 would be like mooring an aircraft carrier with dental floss. What's your take on AOL's chart ? Now that looks scary !

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (15242)	2/10/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 44573

Thanks to the P&F people stepping in in OJ's absence. I like the P&F analysis and it is something I must add to my arsenal in due course. I don't know what to make of this. Confusion I guess. SI is overwhelmingly bearish from the posts I have read. Everyone is calling for more downside, maybe a slight pop and then more down. I had a client in today that I have been trying to get to change her IRA from CD's to mutual funds for years. Well, last year she finally did....in the middle of July! Oh shit. Her account is still down a couple hundred bucks. Not a big account, but still it bothers me when you finally get someone to invest properly and they end up picking the worst possible timing. Heck, if she had done it in Feb when I told her she would still be up from the start...but middle of July? It can't be much worse. I am in the process of moving anything that isn't into cash. Just a bad feeling. The charts Frank put up make me think there will be a bounce tomorrow. The SI bearishness makes me think so as well. However, it may just be a bounce to get short. I am starting to think this might be the beginning of something most people don't want to see..... There are tons of reasons why the market could continue much lower and those same reasons could be placed in the wall of worry column. I guess I don't know what to think, but I do think the short side is the side to play unless you are Jack be nimble. I am going to .... maybe play the bounce if it comes tomorrow, but it will only be with a tight stop on entry and if the entry is solid then I will probably run a tight stop up with the move. The ultimate goal of such an attempt, if I do it, is a SAR to a short position. This may be one where I attempt to do a GZ and let it run for a bit rather than take the profits when they are presented, to copy a phrase I have read many times..... Just not sure what to make of all this. It is very interesting to see that any bounce, no matter how significant it starts out as, turns into a selling frenzy. It also seems the trading is more choppy as of late. Not a fluid motion, but up two, down three, up one and half, down two real quick stuff. Nothing fluid and slow and grinding about it....except that at the end of the day, it generally has been grinding slowly lower. So what does everyone think? A good solid bounce to get the naysayers thinking the downside is over and then a good spanking? Heck, if we go to 45/50 tomorrow, we could have a nice spanking on FRI to 1210 or 1200. If that happens, you could get some people thinking about the exits over the weekend and have a nice ugly Mon. Anyone think I am getting overly bearish? -Scott