To: kemble s. matter who wrote (113939 ) 4/2/1999 9:01:00 AM From: D.J.Smyth Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
kemble, all: 07:53 DJS IMF Official Sees Asian Economies Stabilized, Headed Toward Recov 07:53 DJS IMF Official Sees Asian Economies Stabilized, Headed Toward Recovery SINGAPORE -(Dow Jones)- Asia is half-way along the road to overcoming its economic crisis, now that economies in the region have stabilized, said Hubert Neiss, director of the International Monetary Fund's Asia and Pacific Department, on Friday. "The next task is recovery," Neiss said in an interview with CNBC Asia television, an affiliate of Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of this and other newswires. In related news, a World Bank conference on corporate recovery in Asia on Friday said closer attention to micro-level data would have forewarned of the region's economic crisis. Analysis of what went wrong in Asia has tended to focus on macroeconomic factors. Critics of the IMF's bailout programs in Thailand, for example, say its high interest rate policy to stabilize the baht led to many corporate failures. Delegates to the World Bank-sponsored meeting considered studies of nearly 4,000 Asian corporations from five countries, based on data stretching back to before the region plunged into turmoil in 1997. Government agencies from Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines carried out the studies with support from the World Bank. "Excess capacity was reflected in the pre-crisis data," Mari Pangestu, executive director of Indonesia's Center for Strategic and International Studies, told a news conference to mark the close of the three-day conference. She was referring to the huge oversupply that built up in many Asian economies during the high-growth years, while asset prices soared many times above real productive value. Pangestu said the general consensus among delegates was that high interest rates had starved viable companies across the region of funds for production. "In general, credit availability was an issue," she said. Thailand's Fiscal Policy Office, however, said in a report considered by the conference that "there was little evidence of a severe credit crunch" in the country. According to Thai companies surveyed, 78% said declines in revenue were the major source of liquidity problems. Fewer companies surveyed said insufficient supply of credit was a problem. Indonesia's Pangestu said policymakers must implement macroeconomic strategies to stimulate domestic demand, but must also pay attention to corporate and financial restructuring. "For corporate recovery to take place, it's not enough for one set of policies," she said. Meanwhile, Neiss said Indonesia lagged other countries in its progress toward recovery because its reform process was taking longer, and conceded that political instability there could slow the reforms further if it worsened. But he said the IMF was pleased with Indonesia's progress. Neiss expressed optimism on Japan, saying the government had taken very strong stimulus steps by easing monetary policy "almost to the limit," passing a large fiscal package and undertaking "impressive" reform of its banking system. He said there was a possibility that Japan would need to act again on the fiscal front late this year to prevent the fiscal stimulus from fading away. He also said it was conceivable that Japanese output this year would be slightly below last year's level. But he said he believed Japan's stimulus steps would "during this year produce recovery, and create the support for the recovery to continue." Eventually, the benefits of Japanese corporate restructuring will filter through to the economy, though this will take some time, he said. On Malaysia, Neiss said the government's policies were in line with the IMF's current judgment in many areas, including expansionary monetary and fiscal policy and restructuring of banks and corporations. He said the IMF remained skeptical of capital controls in general, but that in Malaysia's case, the controls appeared to have given it some "breathing room" to enact other reforms. Neiss strongly defended the IMF's record of policy guidance to Asian countries during the region's crisis, saying that while the IMF might have handled some specific areas better, with hindsight "our fundamental strategy would probably remain unchanged." Copyright (c) 1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 04/02 7:53a CST happy Easter to you and others.