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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: freeus who wrote (130205)	6/1/1999 6:41:00 PM
From: calgal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Freeus: Re: You dont think it is a bear market we are entering or you dont think I'm looking at the facts? Freeus. Two weeks does not make a bear market. Let's talk again. I think the tables will reverse. LW

To: freeus who wrote (130205)	6/1/1999 6:49:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

freeus, over the past 18 months we've had NAPM data under 50. We get two months above 50 and it's a bear market. Two months above 50 ONLY implies a trend reversal from the previous 16 months of falling prices. The prices still totally suck. Prices are dirt cheap as they stand now and we have two months above 50 where Manufacturers can report price stabilization, and we are in a bear market. the prices upon which the NAPM are based should be 25% higher for manufacturers surveyed in general to make the equivalent margins of Dell. Obviously if prices didn't suck OR had been rising consecutively for six months you can possibly claim that prices are getting to the point where companies margin's will be affected relative to earnings. But we have two months. Today's NAPM data is equivalent to paying $3.00 for a Big Mac in January of 1998, $2.70 in July 1998, $2.20 in December in 1998, and $2.35 in May 1999. We're still off considerably from January 1998 prices. And commodity prices continue to suck with little end in sight for them. Where is the bear market (other than technology stocks falling from their too highs)?

To: freeus who wrote (130205)	6/1/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

freeus: from Dow Jones after market: <<Meanwhile, construction spending in April declined for the first time since last October amid broad-based drops in private and public spending. The Commerce Department said total construction put in place fell 2.4% in April to a seasonally adjusted $697.4 billion annual rate. That's the largest decrease since a 3.0% fall in January 1994. The April decline follows a revised 1.3% gain in March. Commerce previously estimated an increase of 0.5% in March. Private sector construction spending declined 1.9% to a $545.7 billion rate during April, compared with a revised 1.9% increase in March. Within the private sector, nonresidential spending fell 1.0%, compared with a revised 2.6% advance in March. Spending on residential buildings fell 3.0% during the month, following a revised unchanged performance in March. April public sector construction spending dropped 4.2% to a $151.7 billion rate after declining a revised 0.8% in March. Economic indicators have shown some recent moderation in the housing sector, which has benefited this year from low interest rates and the strong stock market. Housing starts fell 10.1% in April, Commerce said last month, and analysts expect a slight cooling in the construction sector to contribute to a slowdown in GDP growth. Still, construction spending is up 8.0% from April 1998 through April 1999. In chained 1992 dollars, construction spending declined 2.7% in April to a seasonally adjusted $559.8 billion annual rate. A third report indicates the U.S. economic expansion, now in its ninth year, should continue into early 2000 to become the longest ever, despite a slight slowdown in leading indicators. The Conference Board's composite index of leading indicators fell 0.1% in April to 107.1, its first drop in almost a year, according to preliminary estimates. The leading index for March was also revised to show no increase. "This looks like only a temporary pause, although last week's drop in the stock market adds some complications," said Michael Boldin, director of business cycle research at the Conference Board. Most leading indicators, including the stock market, show increases this year and "this expansion should continue and become the longest ever in 2000," according to Boldin. Six of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index fell in April. The most significant decreases were vendor performance, average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance and building permits. The Conference Board is a nonprofit business research group that computes the composite indexes from Commerce Department. Copyright (c) 1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 06/01 5:25p CDT>>