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Strategies & Market Trends
The Art of Investing
An SI Board Since August 1998
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
10711 190 1 PICK
Emcee:  Sun Tzu Type:  Moderated
Let's devote this forum to sharing the strategies and tactics for investors with an "intermediate" time horizon of two months to two years. There is no greater teacher than experience, so if you choose to graciously share your successes and failures in the market, or to discuss a current position you hold, may I suggest that you focus on explaining your investment criteria, and what would make you reconsider your position.

The distinction between investing and trading is subtle but significant. Here investing means a position that either you do not feel compelled to worry about over the next 6 - 60 months, or that if it takes a substantial hit (greater than 25% and ideally a 50% hit) then you will actually be excited about the opportunity to purchase more at those lower prices rather than worry about the hit to your portfolio. Another way to think about it is that if you were to take an extended vacation for a few months to somewhere without Internet, you'd be comfortable with your investment and it would not ruin your vacation to not be watching it.
Subjects that are relevant to this thread include:
(1) Why a stock or commodity is a great investment now (per above definition of investment)
(2) How you scan for your investments and ideas
(3) How you balance your portfolio and manage risk
(4) Where you think the market is headed (over the next 6 - 60 months) and how you'd play it.
(5) Overall market risk/danger signals
(6) How the valuation of your pick compares within its history, sector, and the broader market.
(7) Economic, sector, and company news - if and only if you put it in an investment context ([e.g. company XYZ is getting hammered due to poor EPS report, and is now selling at a historically low price-to-sales ratio)

Topics that are not welcomed:
(1) Daytrading technics
(2) Pumping/cheerleading a stock without any thoughtful analysis behind the post.

If you want to understand my trading/investing style, read the full thread below twice. He does a better job explaining my method than I have ever done myself. Then appreciate that I almost always follow the trend, unless and until I see a counter trend developing near my red/green lines. Those are the times where likely everyone has moved to one side of the boat and it may tip over.

Useful Resources:

Prof. Aswath Damodaran's investment valuation blog
Dr. Ed's Blog - Yardeni Research
Lyn Alden – Investment Strategy
How They Make Money
How to Analyze a 10-K
Research & Insights — Bridgewater Associates
Mohamed A. El-Erian
PIMCO Blog | PIMCO Blog
Newfound Research Blog
Ray Dalio - Bridgewater Associates
lazyportfolioetf.com
investopedia.com
evidenceinvestor.com
tipranks.com
zacks.com
simplywall.st
finviz.com
fknol.com
earningswhispers.com

marcellagerwerf.com

NOTE: US law by default treats all work as copyrighted. If you run a chat room or a newsletter, you must reference the ideas that you get from this board properly and give credit where it is due.


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10711By default I don't trust Grok (for good reasons), and in this particular casSun Tzu1Sunday
10710There is some research that aligns with your thinking. But I don't have acceSun Tzu-Sunday
10709Grok.... How much has FINRA Margin Debt grown in ratio to total U.S. stock markeDinoNavarre-last Saturday
10708Nice trend! Interesting that the COVID low was shallow in comparison to the othskier311last Saturday
10707Speaking of ETFs, I think the decline in normalized margin debt is concomitant wh_2last Saturday
10706There is no such thing as an unbiased statistics as there is not such thing as aSun Tzu1last Saturday
10705The magic of statistics in one perspective.Arran Yuan-last Saturday
10704And this is why there was a 3rd sentence in my opening statement.Sun Tzu-last Saturday
10703There are lots of ways to graph margin debt ratios. Margin Debt/Jizz, for examplajtj991last Friday
10702As a public utility service, I hope to put this margin debt chart crime to bed fSun Tzu2last Friday
10701[X] Another all red backtest to go with all time low cash allocations. https://DinoNavarre1last Thursday
10700[X] Careful out there chaps https://t.co/vOCqYKDixj— Alexander Stahel 🌻 (@BurgDinoNavarre-last Thursday
10699[X] Quote of the Day - “Our coding teams are realizing productivity gains of 3DinoNavarre-last Thursday
10698AbCellera and Bruker Reach Global Settlement of Patent Litigation Business WireSultan-last Thursday
10697Medical Device Network Excellence Awards 2025: Butterfly Network medicaldevice-Sultan1last Thursday
10696UBER... UBER has been gasping and wheezing since the earnings report. I sold isixty2nds-last Wednesday
10695Long story short... A lot of shots on goal. Cheers, 60 seekingalpha.comsixty2nds1December 14
10694Good afternoon! What makes you be so positive about ROIV? I'd appreciate upSun Tzu-December 13
10693Happy Saturday Morning! I'm still holding my ROIV position. It is a 1/4 Possixty2nds-December 13
10692Here are my winners an losers for the day. The biggest loser is down (in total, Sun Tzu-December 12
10691All I can say is thanks to weed stocks. Because of them, my portfolio is down 0.Sun Tzu4December 12
10690More OT stuff - the pain never ends! Debug trace below (one of many). 2) ThSun Tzu-December 11
10689Completely OT - It's always important to eat your own dogfood. For those whoSun Tzu1December 11
10688UBER... I added some shares on the drop today. Holding 89% of a 2X Position. Wsixty2nds-December 10
10687[X] Just after we published this yesterday! https://t.co/Hd86cQmPAzpic.twitter.DinoNavarre-December 9
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