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The plot: There seems to be an enormous opportunity in the telecommunications industry to sell convergence billing and customer care software and services. Due to regulatory change and increased competitive pressure, the telecommunications services market is moving to converge, or bundle services. changing regulations, technology and competition are leading long distance carriers to enter local and wireless telephone service, local carriers to move into long distance, cable companies to offer telephony services and all carriers to consider offering Internet access services. The worldwide market for spending on billing and records is projected to be $5.8 billion in 1997 and to grow at a 14% compounded annual growth rate to $8.4 billion in the year 2000. There is a clear trend toward outsourcing billing and customer care systems in new markets, such as postpaid and prepaid wireless, cable and DBS, online interactive services and in new deregulated business opportunities, such as international or convergence billing. The trend toward outsourcing is driven by time-to-market pressure, a need for more flexible systems and by competitive pressures to keep costs low. The players: ITDS (25$) - rated strong buy by BT Alex Brown and Furman Selz ITDS is a leading provider of comprehensive transactional billing and management information solutions to providers of wireless, PCS, long distance and satellite telecommunications services. CSN (Cincinnati Bell Inc) (35$) - rated strong buy by Furman Selz CSN consists of a telecom services division and 2 fast growing communications outsourcing divisions. LHSG- LHS Group (100$) rated Market Outperformer by Goldman Sachs (due to valuation) LHS is a leading provider of client/server billing and customer care for the teleco industry. SAVLY - Saville Systems Plc (55$) rated buy by Montgomery Sec and BA Robertson Stephens Saville produces a series of software modules running on IBM AS400 that enable telecommunications network operators to provide customer initiation, customer event processing, billing and post-billing services. BILL - Billing Concepts (25$) rated as a hold by Jeffries (due to valuation) USCS - (20$) rated strong buy by Furman Selz CSGS - (38$) rated buy by BA Robertson Stephens other players: INTAF, ACEC, AXIM, ALLTEL and EDS The question: As you see, on paper these companies all look very similar to each other. But who will be likely winner in this "game" ? Who are your favourites ? My favourites are ITDS, SAVLY, CSN although I think this is a sector play, so holding any 3 of these should ensure a good portfolio performance. -oliver | ||||||||||||||
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