From: JohnG
Thursday, Mar 15, 2001 8:20 PM
Here Is a lengthy summary of articles and links that support the thesis that
QCOM and its CDMA technology
are 1) superior to competative technology which is not operable, has limited
data rates, and serious
unresolved technical/health issues, 2) deployed and operable as 2.5G 1X
(154 to 307 Kbps), 3) Successfully
pilot tested 1X EV at up to 2.4 Mbps, 4) accepted by China for massive
10Million sub buildout in 2001
escelating in China possibly to 50Million subs by 2005, 5) accepted and
currently operational in India in
India with 3-5Million limited mobility WLL phones to be sold in 2001, 6)
Operational as 95A inNorth
America at Sprint, Verizon, Bell Mobility in Canada and moving to 1X in 2001
at Sprint, in 2001/2002 at
Verizon, in 2002 at NXTL, 7) Operating now in in Korea as 1X, 8) Operating
this year as 1X at KDDI in
Japan, 9) Operating now as 95A at Telestra in Australia, 10) operating now in
numerous smaller countries
and planned rapid build out in many other countries.
Subscriber 5 year growth rates for CDMA 95A, 1X and 1X EV have been
estimated at 39%/yr while only
20% for the competing European GSM, GPRS, W-CDMA upgrade path.
Banks and operators supporting the
European upgrade path are traumatized by delays in the technology and the
apx $15billion spent by operators
in Europe for 3G licenses for which useable European 3G technology is years
away.
GROWTH RATE
Message 15506194
QCOM has released BREW software to be used by creative 3rd party
inventive software writers to write
useful C, C+ & Java programs to be used in CDMA wireless phones. UNLIKE
MSFT, QCOM hasNO
PLANS or means to "eat its babys" by creating some massive Windows Like
software incorporating the
genius ideas of these 3rd party software writers. It has set up a QCOM
qualifying and monitoring procedure to
ensure the quality of such programs whose code will flow from software writers
to network operators to
wireless phones thus enriching software writers and wireless network
operators as well as QCOM. In short,
3rd party software writers will have a lightning love affair with QCOM
unparallelled in the history of
computers/software and simultaneously anniolate GSM, GPRS, TDMA and
possibly non-QCOM W-CDMA
competative advantage by means of first mover market advantage.
I) SUPERIOR QCOM TECHNOLOGY
a) Dr Jacobs' slide points out the huge bits/second efficient spectrum usage
advantage QCOM's 1X and 1XEV
have over GSM, GPRS and W-CDMA. (Slide2)
qualcomm.com
b) All types of CDMA must license QCOM patents and pay royalties to
QQCOM--includes 1X, 1x-EV,
WCDMA etc. Currently QCOM has the only operational 1X, 1X-EV technology
and will be first with a full
featured W-CDMA ASIC too. Thus the 3G market is rolling out equipment in
2001/2002 in Korea, US, Japan,
Canada. The European GSM toGPRS to W-CDMA proponents are years
behind in this technology and just
have nothing that competes. The massive 2001 CDMA 95A technology rolling
out in China can be upgraded
to 1X.
b) Dr. Jacobs presents live 1x EV QCOM technology at Cannes pointing out
that except for QCOM's
technology which is currently operating as 1X in Korea at SKT, KT, and LG
and in Japan at KDDI, 3G
W-CDMA technology from the European upgrade path will be delayed until
2004/2005.
Message 15508067
c) The widely publicized DOCOMO W-CDMA network supposed to go
operational in Japan in May 2001 is
only a pilot project which DOCOMO says will only sell 150,000 handsets in the
first year. Data rates are
said to be limited as it is bases on unique NTT technology conforming to a
1999 draft W-CDMA standard.
Only limited handsets are available for DOCOMO's prototype as most handset
makers missed the DOCOMO
deadline.
Message 15490882
d) European GPRS equipment delays. Note that if it ever arrives, GPRS
supports only apx 20Kbps data rates,
eats batteries rapidly, and emits huge ammounts of potentially hazardous RF
radiation.
Message 15482564
V) North American Operators committed to rapid 1X roll out
a.) NXTL CEO Donohue says at ML technology conference that NXTL will roll
out 1X in mid 2002 early
2003 time frame. He can't understand AT&T's announced wireless strategy to
move to W-CDMA by going
first to GSM/GPRS. Does not plan to use only MOT phones. More to be said
at 3/20 CTIA conference.
Message 15501769
b) Sprint who has issued CDMA 1X purchase orders will announce their
detailed plans to move from 95A to
1X (time frame is 2H 2001 and early 2002) at CTIA conference
c) Verizon will upgrade to 1X but this will likely be in 2002
VI) India operational in limited mobility WLL's which ultimately will utilize
20MHZ nationally to be split
among multiple operators with 3 to 5 million CDMA WLL phones to be
installed in 2001 providing service at
economical rates of under $0.01 mer minute.
a) BSNL purchasing $400 million in CDMA based WLL equipment to serve
600,000 phones noting that PO's
have neen placed with LG et al. AND that of 600,000villages in India 200,000
have zero phones of any kind.
Message 15498353
b)On Indian WLL
Message 15296094
c) Indian WLL forces Indian conventional cellular to get competative.
Message 15373266
d) Samsung plans to sell 2 to 5 million CDMA phones in India in 2001
Message 15473168
AND
Message 15462875
e) Comments on India WLL
Message 15217169
VII) China UNICOM is issuing CDMA PO's in March, 2001 for a 10 Million
added line, 200 city, $12 billion
wide area CDMA 95A network (designed for easy upgrade to 1X) to be built
out rapidly in 2001. China
realizes that with its extremely high poplulation density, only CDMA networks
are spectrum efficient enough
to allow China to provide toe 200Million wireless lines it has decided it must
have in place in a few years. It
appears that this network will be upgraded annually by an extimated 10 million
new lines op to 50 or 60
Million lines
a) MARCH 2001 CONTRACT LETTING trans by laodeng
Message 15477281
b) Unicom sees 50 million CDMA lines in 3 years
Message 15471795
c) there are many Korea-China CDMA joint ventures
ragingbull.lycos.com
VIII. Operational Korean 1X network owned by SK will likely ramp up in June,
2001 when gvt restrictions
ease.
a) Message 15461193
IX. CDMA and CDMA WLL are quite active in S America. However, there is
less difinitive news out of
there than out of ASIA and US and Europe
X) QCOM nas announced a MSM6000 inexpensive limited feature 1X ASIC
to have the 2 times 95A voice
capacity of 1X networks, support SMS, and clearly targeted to enable $100
range phone that compete
costwise with GSM phones. Ideal for India, South America and Chila WLL
systems. Completion date
unknown but presumably early 2002.
Message 15485601
XI) The Asian plan is to link the CDMA networks of Korea, Japan and China
by December 2001 at the
earliest. There are numerous other networks that could link up in the future
such as US, Canada, Australia.
Message 15485469
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