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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/28/2020 7:35:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Not yet, because I first added to shorts of expensive calls :0) to get shorter-still on TSLA, and shall likely do puts this night as TSLA December 31st expiration comes within 48-hrs view. TSLA shorts is more sure than market-wide short. I am of the belief that together with the globals, the many China players in the EV space shall likely un-do TSLA in good time. bloomberg.com Tesla’s Dominant Position in China Could Be Threatened Next Year 29 December 2020, 05:00 GMT+8 Hyperdrive Bloomberg News Carmaker’s lead in biggest EV market under attack by locals Tesla’s fate in China will show if it has global staying power The Tesla Model Y. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg Sign up for Next China, a weekly email on where the nation stands now and where it's going next. Tesla Inc. is coming to the end of its first year selling China-made cars with a commanding position in the world’s biggest electric-vehicle market, but Elon Musk shouldn’t rest on his laurels. You've reached your free article limit. Limited time only: Subscribe now with an exclusive introductory offer. Cancel anytime. View Offers

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/28/2020 7:40:02 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

BMW or Tesla, 12-months from today, and we know the answer after all the bugs are worked out TSLA has painted on its back a bullseye I hope, and am not convinced, that TSLA can deliver a few more months of risk-free return before it goes into free-fall zerohedge.com BMW Will Produce An Additional 250,000 EVs Over Next 3 Years, CEO Says As if Tesla's inclusion in to the S&P 500 and ARK Invest's batshit insaneimpressive fund inflows over the last couple weeks haven't been enough to make you consider a top in Tesla, the rest of the automotive world continues to close in on the automaker. We have now officially seen electric vehicles from manufacturers like Hyundai, Volkswagen and Ford offering up "real world" competition to Tesla, who continues to struggle with quality control defects while focusing on getting their car horns to make fart noises. Now, BMW is throwing their hat in the ring - in a big way. The German manufacturer said this weekend that it plans to produce an additional 250,000 electric vehicles over the next three years. The company's CEO Oliver Zipse said on Sunday: “We already had ambitions growth plans and want to further expand our market position.” The CEO says he has remaining concerns about Germany's transition to electric vehicles will be slowed down by lack of charging infrastructure. He predicted that 15,000 private and 1,300 public chargers would have to be put into operation in the country, every week, starting now. [url=][/url] “Unfortunately we are far from that. Therefore, the next big joint project in Europe must be to expand charging infrastructure,” he said, according to Bloomberg. Recall, in the U.S., President Elect Joe Biden has already promised 500,000 new EV charging stations in the U.S. This will be part of Biden's plan to help create "over 1 million jobs by investing in clean energy", TechStartups wrote last week. The plan will mark a rapid expansion of EV infrastructure across the U.S., which had about 78,500 charging outlets and about 25,000 charging stations as of March 2020. It also means that Biden is going to have to convince Congress to continue to approve subsidies and tax credits, which have led to such wonderful wastes of money as Tesla's Buffalo plant. The initiative appears to be part of a plan to stop China from "dramatically outpacing" the U.S. in its adoption of EVs, Reuters noted last week. As part of his plan, Biden expects to nominate former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm as his energy secretary. Granholm has experience in taxpayer-funded subsidies, Reuters notes; she helped secure $1.35 billion in the past to incentivize companies to make EVs and batteries in her state when she was governor.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/28/2020 8:15:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

target-rich bloomberg.com Some of 2020’s Most Expensive Stocks Sink in Year-End Selloff Jeran Wittenstein 29 December 2020, 05:47 GMT+8 :58 Some of the year’s most expensive stocks encountered a wave of selling as investors moved to lock in gains in the last week of 2020. Zoom Video Communications Inc. and DocuSign Inc., fell more than 6% on Monday. Both companies have seen their shares soar this year amid a surge in new users and are trading at more than 20 times next year’s projected sales. The average price to estimated sales multiple in the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Stock Index is 4.6 times, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Among other notable decliners were digital-ad company Trade Desk Inc., which fell 11%, and data-mining comapny Palantir Technologies Inc., which suffered a 7.6% drop. DoorDash, the food-delivery company whose shares debuted earlier this month, sank 6.7%. Monday’s declines came as both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rallied to all-time highs. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/29/2020 12:47:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Respond to of 218544

Might be too early to <<deploy cheap puts>> for the timing service I rely upon for the technicals w/i which my ultra overarching macro plays has not given the Hindenburg Omen of the Jaws of Death etc etc I never understood technicals but know they sport sufficient merit to warrant deference “ What is interesting is that regardless of which large degree wave mapping scenario is occurring, both suggest stocks will top in the coming weeks, to be followed by a massive plunge.“ In any case, fwiw, Quote Today's Market Comments: Stocks rose Monday, on mild volume, with the exception of small caps that fell slightly. There were no changes to our key indicators. Our three-component Blue Chip key trend-finder indicator remains on a Neutral signal. Our NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicator remains on a Neutral signal. There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Monday, which suggests a large price move is likely over the coming days. The stock market continues to oscillate up and down in choppy modest price action, in search of a trend. This weak price action will end in early 2021. All this price action is a topping process. The stock market is concluding rising trends, and looks ready to top over the coming weeks. This should be a major top. Bullish sentiment is near all-time highs, which is a contrarian indication of a major top close at hand. Tonight we continue to see worsening large and growing Bearish Divergences between prices for the major averages and their 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators, as well as their Demand Power measures, telling us a top is approaching that will lead to a declining trend of some significance. We also see a huge Bearish divergence between our Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500. Divergences have excellent correlation with coming trend turns of significance. These are pointing to a significant decline starting in early 2021. This is a dangerous development for the stock market. Another plunge event is likely in 2021. Major negative news will accompany this plunge. This will provide an excellent opportunity for traders. There is a Jaws of Death Megaphone Topping pattern from 2017, that is a finishing component, completing a massive Rising Bearish Wedge pattern from 1986, which suggests that Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} is ending now. The coming plunge in 2021 would commence Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down. In this scenario, the 2020 March crash did not start {IV} down, but was a key tentpole in the Jaws of Death pattern, with the rally since March 2020 as the final wave (E ) up to complete Grand Supercycle degree wave {III}. We have updated charts in this weekend's report. The other possibility is that Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down started with the February/March 2020 crash, as shown in the chart on page 34. In this case, stocks look to be inside wave (C ) up, which is the end of a double zig zag pattern for Cycle degree wave B-up. Once that tops, a massive Cycle degree wave C-down should crash the stock market again. This coming wave C-down suggests some fearful news will accompany it in 2021. This is all inside Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, which is a massive Bear market that we find ourselves in at this time. Inside this Bear market will be several huge overlapping waves, as we have seen so far in 2020. We annotate a possibility for the Bear market price path in chart on page 35. So far, prices are closely tracking this projection pattern. Once this rising trend completes, possibly in early 2021, the next wave down, C-down of (A) down, will likely be another crash. But to reiterate, we would need to see a new Hindenburg Omen Crash signal for that to occur, and there is no H.O. on the clock at this time. Over the past 35 years, there have been no stock market crashes unless an H.O. was on the clock. The wave mapping warns 2021 could be unkind to stocks. What is interesting is that regardless of which large degree wave mapping scenario is occurring, both suggest stocks will top in the coming weeks, to be followed by a massive plunge. On Monday, Gold fell, Silver rose sharply, and Mining stocks fell modestly. These markets also are looking for a definitive trend, and have been oscillating aimlessly for weeks. Our HUI key trend-finder indicators remain on a Neutral signal, as the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator is on a Sell signal, at odds with the HUI 30 day Stochastic. Gold and Silver often track this indicator. There are two scenarios for the short-term path for Gold. Once Gold rises above 1,975, we will have strong evidence that a powerful new rising trend has started, with substantially greater upside potential. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Neutral signal December 10th, 2020 and remain there Monday, December 28th, 2020. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Tuesday, December 15th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on December 10th, 2020, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on December 21st, 2020. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal. Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, May 20th, and remains there Monday, December 28th, up 3 point (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 13. It will need to fall below negative - 5 for a new Sell signal. Demand Power was flat at 424 on Monday, while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 399, telling us Monday's Blue Chip rise was milder than the price move suggests. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal November 4th, and remains there Monday, December 28th, 2020. The HUI generated a key trend-finder indicator Neutral signal December 18th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal December 2nd, 2020, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on December 18th, 2020. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Exit Short signal December 17th. On Monday, December 28th, Demand Power fell 3 to 385 while Supply Pressure was flat at 390, telling us Monday's HUI decline was mild. DJIA/SPY PPI Rose 4 to Positive + 0.63, on a Buy DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 54.67 On a Sell DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 51.67 On a Sell DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 60.00 DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 60.00 DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 66.67 Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 3 to Positive + 13, On a Buy Demand Power Flat at 424, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 399 Buy McClellan Oscillator Fell slightly to Negative - 22.36 from -16.77 McClellan Osc Summation Index + 4071.41 Plunge Protection Team Indicator -1.23, an "OFF" signal DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 188.7 on a Buy NYSE New Highs 300 New Lows 6 Today's Technology NDX Market Comments: The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Neutral signal Tuesday, December 15th, 2020, and remain there December 28th, 2020. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on December 15th, 2020, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on December 22nd, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on November 3rd, 2020. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long positions signal Wednesday, November 4th and remains there December 28th. On Monday, December 28th, Demand Power was Rose 5 to 445, while Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 415, telling us Monday's rise was moderate. The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 5th, 2020, and needs to fall below negative - 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 12.6 on Monday, December 28th. NDX PPI Up 5 to 264.16, On a Buy NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 71.95 Slow 71.22 On a Buy NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 58.33 Slow 54.05 On a Sell NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 12.6 On a Buy NDX Demand Power Up 5 to 445, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 418 Buy RUT PPI Fell 1 to 172.99, on a Buy RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 100.5, On a Buy Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments: Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal December 18th, 2020. HUI PPI Fell 1 to 250.83 on a Sell HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00, Slow 60.56 on a Buy HUI Demand Power Fell 3 to 385; Supply Pressure Flat at 390 Sell McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report Unquote

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/29/2020 4:21:03 PM
From: TobagoJack	3 Recommendations Recommended By bull_dozer frankl marcher Respond to of 218544

Did nothing about puts, but continued to short naked calls as the leverage / pivot / reaction function continue to seem rewarding Message 33113808 But perhaps the culling has started Message 33114457 Let’s see what if anything the timing service has to say this HK day / NY night, about Jaws of Death and Hindenburg Omen and such happy-talk My own timing-sense is sending off signals urging, “dial 1 800 GET.ME.OUT” If and once confirmed by the timing service then need to phase-change from net-short to extremely-short. Another sign, and perhaps time to shelter the ladies and the children zerohedge.com Small Caps Puke At Cash Open, Erase Gains Vs Big Tech The cash market open in the US triggered a wave of selling in small caps (just like yesterday) and a bid for Nasdaq/Big-Tech (just like yesterday)... [url=][/url] The last two days have seen Small Caps give up all their relative gains to big-tech stocks since 12/21... [url=][/url] Regime change? Maybe, but Small Caps have a long way to go to catch down to the rest of the market for December.. [url=][/url] Which makes us wonder, is this year-end rebalancing?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/29/2020 8:20:51 PM
From: TobagoJack	4 Recommendations Recommended By bull_dozer carranza2 frankl marcher Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218544

Just did weekly call w/ buddy, and the rearguard program must start this night ... Below be my notes, and aggregated cheat-sheet for tonight, when dialling 1.800.GET.ME.OUT (1) Given the resources committed, looking like the Democrats can win the once per generation control of Senate by way of Georgia, and should such happen, uncertainty disappears replaced by whatever, depending on one's PoV / persuasion, and the aggregate reaction function that results from such PoV / persuasion Expect high volatility January 4th forward finance.yahoo.com (2) California / NY trashed, and particularly SF / LA and NYC (3) Short SLG finance.yahoo.com and its 100+ office buildings in NYC (4) Initiate / maintain short TLT finance.yahoo.com but be mindful that (friend advising for quite some time but I never did it) Euro / EU under severe stress and might just crater, as it engages in post-brexit devaluation gaming, and half-step jubilee (forced extension of sovereign debt term / upping of interest rate) that shall drive capital towards USA - rate down and dollar up (5) Downside to gold 16xx but sees only catalyst as market-wide drubbing, in the meantime silver better going forward, w/r to downside as well as upside (6) W/r to puts protection, no need to get fancy, just buy near the money puts on SPY and QQQ covering the period now to end-February, and partially finance by shorting OTM calls on same over same period SPY finance.yahoo.com QQQ finance.yahoo.com (7) Post cratering, should it happen, buy buy buy, especially the high dividend / preferred dividend shares (8) Exogenous shock per known known, USA-China trade war developments (9) Longer term shock per known unknown, civil unrest everywhere and rise of socialism agenda (10) End-game, jubilee, where sovereigns essentially cancel government bond markets in semi-coordinated way per none wants to be at 'competitive' disadvantage and all preparing population to accept cram-downs (by zero-ing, after phase-change of existing debt into perpetual and then zero-ing) and put selves on auto-printing of defined % of GDP, and hand out chips to bondholders to acquire equity as compensation Inflation. (11) Recommendation: keeping accumulating gold, then acquire more gold, and get still-more gold, but perhaps by way of bitgold and silver (12) Landlords in truly unfree locales are plucked and to be phucked (13) Move out of SF / LA / NY for Austin and such same, per relative-value play

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/30/2020 12:36:25 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Yes, following on to Message 33114798 I did below ... I purchased puts on QQQ and SPY both, and I financed the long positions by shorting calls of QQQ, SPY, and TSLA, my go-to negative-carry funding currency, trying for a win-win outcome. Had to deploy more naked-short TSLA expiration tomorrow and 8th January call strikes-710 & 750 as I could not reasonably finance 100% of the SPY & QQQ Put purchases by shorting SPY & QQQ calls alone. Was thinking that ... Given the volatilities and valuations of QQQ, SPY and TSLA, I am more confident to be able to roll the short TSLA call positions (to either higher premium and/or higher strike) than I am certain about doing same w/ QQQ and SPY positions. In any case ... Bottom line, yes I want to guard against market-wide drubbing to end-Feb 2021 (the volatility-splash should be reflected in the 19th Feb Puts even as we near the expiration) but no, I prefer that someone else pay for the play. I get what Trump said, about Mexico and the wall, but not so much re China and tariffs. Should the expected not materialize, as many expectations do not work out, I am guessing that I shall play one more round, to end-May, for reasons other than Georgia and regime-change splashing. I am also mindful the the Fed means ‘whatever it takes’ as it is guided by edict of inflation-targeting. Could have been cute and sell some GBTC to finance the entire undertaking, but that would make the exercise very expensive, I fear, as bitgold likely to rise further. I do not want to do the short bitcoin <=> long pizza trade :0) Let us see how it works out. 30K in gunsight ...

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/31/2020 12:52:10 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Following up to the anti-fragile, astute&agile trade done here Message 33115851 by which I went long Calls SPY and Calls QQQ, and financed the long position by shorting a combination SPY calls, QQQ calls, and TSLA calls 31st December strike-710 and 8th January strike-750. Today RobinHooders struck back along the entirety of the TSLA front even as SPY and QQQ positions wobbled against them. TSLA is at 715, and if i do nothing someone shall call TSLA shares from me, and unfortunately I do not have any to deliver. Bummer. finance.yahoo.com No matter, earlier in the HK night / NY day day I rolled, buying back the money losing strike-710s and shorted strike-750s expiring one week later, and later (HK 1:00ish am) as TSLA surge seemed stronger, I again rolled, tactically, bought back the strike-750s and shorted strike-800s still a week later, each time taking care to lighten my counterparties of their unneeded cash. Message to the Hooders, I can do what I do every week and never get tired, feeding off of their enthusiasm, for I intend to never ever deliver to them a single share of TSLA. Net net, instead of having obligation to deliver TSLA at 710 / 750, I now have obligation to deliver TSLA at 800, and got paid for making such an absurd promise never to be filled. Love the game, and the overall SPY-QQQ-TSLA aggregate continues to mint fiat cash. One fine day TSLA shall blowup before expiration and I start a new campaign. Sure beats working for TSLA. People say shorting naked calls is extremely dangerous. They must have forgotten about the roll, that just like in martial arts, rolling is a competitive tactic, and not risky. Short shares is risky. Bottom line, the <<cheap puts>> has gone from zero-cost basis to deeply negative cost-basis, all in 24 hours.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	12/31/2020 7:34:29 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> This am received probable early warning of the script of battle cry for January 6th, written by friend of friend and so I must assign some weight either as am only approaching the puzzle as a bystander holding stuff that would be affected. If actually play out just so, backed by ~70M, against perhaps another ~70M, we have the beginnings of an issue needing resolution. Should such be so, the zero-cost-basis puts would be epically cheap. If does not play out into a proto-problem, maybe the market would tank anyway, and if not, the cost of puts package was zero, so what the hack. ... [seven pages of intervening script I am not bothering to extract, but reader ought to be get the gist from above and below] ...

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/1/2021 11:03:31 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Following up to <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Message 33112887 and Re <<Tesla Short Sellers Lost $38 Billion in 2020 as Stock Surged>> Message 33117702 ... might and should be true, in that had one duked it out in house-to-house / street-by-street melee by shorting the equity itself, one would have been knocked out fairly early or lost a whole lot of blood. Re <<This “is not only the largest mark-to-market loss for any stock this year, it is the largest yearly mark-to-market loss I have ever seen,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, a managing director at S3 Partners.>> ... the devil is in the detail, and the detail is <<mark-to-market>> Only fund managers care about 'mark-to-market' that they need to report at month's end, fearful month after terrible month, clubbed like a baby seal, quarter after quarter, until they get the boot. This 'mark-to-market' discipline is very good, but really only for players who are not constrained by such silliness, and who, due to the funds disciplined ways that leads to insanely high volatility, that which enables perpetual roll to more incoming cash as well as higher call strike-price, there is not a problem except how to crystallise the cash, whether by booking the cash or redeploy to GBTC, the alt-cash. TSLA has been a fantabulous negative-carry funding currency, and the gains-to-date over 2020 has been insanely huge. (a) Of the realised net net of gains booked 2020, option gains (vast majority from naked shorting TSLA calls) to stock gains (I do not trade stocks nearly as often as options, but did book gains from DRD, GLD, GDX, and GDXJ) is 7.6 to 1, meaning had I not traded options, the total gains would be reduced by 7.6/8.6 or 88%. (b) Of the unrealised book, for every $1 dollar of gains unrealised on the stock side (due primarily to unrealised profit on DRD and especially GBTC) there now stands $4 of 'mark-to-market' losses on naked-short options (primarily TSLA calls) that would first decay to $0 (zero) and then to -$6 (negative six) as the shorted options expire worthless, adding to the gains realised as in (a), or (c) get rolled to longer time for still more option premium income and/or higher-still strike price for eventual extinguishment (blowup in face) of the counter-parties, thus adding to the realised gains described in (a). I love win-win outcomes :0) IOW, the higher the absolute valuation of TSLA and the richer the personal wealth of Elon Musk, the more insane the implied volatility, and the greater the mark-to-market losses of the TSLA shorts, especially at the equity arena, the better. As example of presumed win-win forensics is tagged to our dialogue re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> siliconinvestor.com Message 33117713

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/4/2021 7:55:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Following up to this Message 33119698 essentially short QQQ / short SPY trade, that which is a part to these siliconinvestor.com , I made some way-point calibration moves, to distill the wager by ridding of bells and whistles of shorted naked calls (1) The long QQQ Puts and long SPY Puts are doing okay first day engagement in the arena, both considerably higher than when bought last week, 9.53 to 7.12 for QQQ and 7.20 to 4.99 for SPY, good-enough for 6-days return on wager (2) I shall give the long Puts a few more days (2 weeks?) in the battlefield and see if Team Trump rides to the pincer movement (3) The financing legs of the trade are too small to matter, at at-best 1/4 of the cost. Much better to solely depend on Elon Musk / TSLA for negative-carry funding, and as the short QQQ / SPY calls were showing a profit, I decamped the positions without ceremony (4) The minutia of battlescape

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/5/2021 3:52:02 AM
From: TobagoJack	3 Recommendations Recommended By bull_dozer frankl marcher Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> The timing service advises ... What is interesting is that regardless of which large degree wave mapping scenario is occurring, both suggest stocks will top in the coming weeks, to be followed by a massive plunge. My impression of the service have always been that it is balanced, and specifically guides the trading of ETFs on the up as well as down sides, always by buying calls or puts on ETFs (GLD, GDX, GDXJ etc etc), or directly of Ultra Bull- / Inverse- ETFs. The sample trade sizes are small (5-10K per trade advised, of a theoretical 1M portfolio), and I have not noticed that it would go over 20% allocation at max (meaning generally 80% cash), and even so pays large % of annual expenses. I limit self to the GDX / GDXJ / SPY / QQQ stuff. I do not like the ultra- bull- / bear- ETFs. I do not look at the charts, because cannot be bothered. I like bullet points. I pay attention when it shouts Hindenburg Omen. It is not yet shouting. I like to be ahead in the queue when evacuations are called for. Not the first, but ahead. In any case, ... I quote, ... Today's Market Comments: Stocks fell sharply Monday, January 4th, 2021, on strong volume. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a new Sell signal, including the Purchasing Power Indicator. The NASDAQ 100 Purchasing Power Indicator fell to a new Sell signal. Russell 2000 small cap Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Sell signal. The sharp decline comes the day after our Phi mate turn date scheduled for Thursday, December 31st, 2020, a major turn date that was lined up with a major bottom in 2012. Monday's drop came as we continue to see worsening large and growing Bearish Divergences between prices for the major averages and their 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators, as well as their Demand Power measures, telling us a top is approaching that will lead to a declining trend of some significance. We also see a huge Bearish divergence between our Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500. Divergences have excellent correlation with coming trend turns of significance. These are pointing to a significant decline starting in early 2021. This is a dangerous development for the stock market. Another plunge event is likely in 2021. Major negative news will accompany this plunge. This will provide an excellent opportunity for traders. As far as pattern is concerned, we have the same comments tonight as in previous issues in December: There is a Jaws of Death Megaphone Topping pattern from 2017, that is a finishing component, completing a massive Rising Bearish Wedge pattern from 1986, which suggests that Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} is ending now. The coming plunge in 2021 would commence Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down. In this scenario, the 2020 March crash did not start {IV} down, but was a key tentpole in the Jaws of Death pattern, with the rally since March 2020 as the final wave (E ) up to complete Grand Supercycle degree wave {III}. We have updated charts in this weekend's report. The other possibility is that Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down started with the February/March 2020 crash, as shown in the chart on page 34. In this case, stocks look to be inside wave (C ) up, which is the end of a double zig zag pattern for Cycle degree wave B-up. Once that tops, a massive Cycle degree wave C-down should crash the stock market again. This coming wave C-down suggests some fearful news will accompany it in 2021. This is all inside Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, which is a massive Bear market that we find ourselves in at this time. Inside this Bear market will be several huge overlapping waves, as we have seen so far in 2020. We annotate a possibility for the Bear market price path in chart on page 35. So far, prices are closely tracking this projection pattern. Once this rising trend completes, possibly in early 2021, the next wave down, C-down of (A) down, will likely be another crash. But to reiterate, we would need to see a new Hindenburg Omen Crash signal for that to occur, and there is no H.O. on the clock at this time. Over the past 35 years, there have been no stock market crashes unless an H.O. was on the clock. The wave mapping warns 2021 could be unkind to stocks. What is interesting is that regardless of which large degree wave mapping scenario is occurring, both suggest stocks will top in the coming weeks, to be followed by a massive plunge. On Monday, Gold, Silver and Mining stocks rose sharply. Gold and Mining stocks rose to the upper boundary of declining trend-channels from the past several months. If they continue to rise from here, and break out above those boundary lines, we would have a strong case they are starting the next major rising trend. Mining stocks key trend-finder indicators generated a new Buy signal Monday, as the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a new Buy signal, joining the 30 day stochastic. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal January 4th, 2021 and remain there Monday, January 4th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Monday, January 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on January 4th, 2020, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on January 4th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal. Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, May 20th, and remains there Monday, January 4th, losing 6 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 9. It is trending down, and will only need to fall below negative - 5 for a new Sell signal. The next sell signal will be the first since May 2020. Demand Power Fell 7 to 413 Monday, while Supply Pressure Rose 14 to 408, telling us Monday's Blue Chip decline was powerful with deep pockets intervention supporting prices. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal November 4th, and remains there Monday, January 4th, 2021. But a huge Bearish divergence warns of a coming Sell signal and major decline. The HUI generated a key trend-finder indicator Buy signal January 4th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal December 2nd, 2020, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on January 4th, 2020. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long signal January 4th. On Monday, January 4th, Demand Power rose 19 to 404 while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 383, telling us Monday's HUI rise was powerful. DJIA/SPY PPI Fell 15 to Negative - 11.32, on a Sell DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 62.67 On a Sell DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 43.33 Slow 57.22 On a Sell DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 50.00 DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 43.33 DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 33.33 Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 6 to Positive + 9, On a Buy Demand Power Fell 7 to 413, Supply Pressure Up 14 to 408 Buy McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative - 87.76 McClellan Osc Summation Index + 3867.48 Plunge Protection Team Indicator -2.25, an "OFF" signal DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -30.7 on a Buy NYSE New Highs 167 New Lows 5 Today's Technology NDX Market Comments: The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Neutral signal Tuesday, December 15th, 2020, and remain there January 4th, 2020. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on January 4th, 2020, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on December 22nd, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on November 3rd, 2020. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long positions signal Wednesday, November 4th and remains there January 4th. On Monday, January 4th, Demand Power Fell 6 to 438, while Supply Pressure Rose 13 to 429, telling us Monday's decline was powerful with deep pockets intervention supporting prices. The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 5th, 2020, and needs to fall below negative - 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to negative -3.4 on Monday, January 4th. NDX PPI Fell to 250.99, On a Sell NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 62.20 Slow 66.83 On a Buy NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 53.33 On a Sell NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -3.4 On a Buy NDX Demand Power Fell 5 to 438, Supply Pressure Up 13 to 429 Buy RUT PPI Fell 5 to 163.49, on a Sell RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -158.2, On a Buy Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments: Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal January 4th, 2021. HUI PPI Rose 24 to 275.38 on a Buy HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 100.00, Slow 72.78 on a Buy HUI Demand Power Up 19 to 404; Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 383 Buy McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/5/2021 7:22:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> ... no wonder why the Puts are cheap. zerohedge.com SPY SHORTS HAVE EVAPORATED BY THE MARKET EAR TUESDAY, JAN 05, 2021 - 9:21 Source: JPM Source: Refinitiv The entire corona "shock" when it comes to loans on SPY is now gone. Is everybody "comfortably" all in long now? Despite the bullish feeling, SPX has done pretty much nothing since December. Small grinding higher and a few bigger down days has offered practically zero index returns. Note we are basically back to Pfizer vaccine day news highs. SPX has had problems pushing above that upper trend line lately, which is a loss of momentum. The only thing up since December is VIX. It would be truly epic if market tops out as people have practically closed out shorts.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/5/2021 11:19:23 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> likely as important, a heads-up re something we are dialoguing about ... zerohedge.com

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/11/2021 8:36:24 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> My friend remaining in cheap put, out to 19th February He says we had a wobble and does not like the trades that followed, and certainly did not like today (he is long and hedged w/ puts). He thinks dollar goes up and equity goes to 40K by year-end, but the squiggles between now and then could matter. He thinks Euro down. The Democrats need to get the infrastructure spending going and boost employment, else not good.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/20/2021 3:54:01 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Yes, did so just a few minutes ago, into the celebratory mood for whatever waits ahead Very cheap, actually free, with additional funds liberated to top up position Message 33154160

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/20/2021 4:08:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> After having a bit more time to ponder what I thought before falling asleep, I also deployed inverse-ultra-Dow to boost leverage. The overall group of trades still remains cashflkow-positive, and so qualifies as ‘cheap’ in the sense i understand cheap, as in effective-free. I wanted to execute a positive wager on TrueGold, but could not decide on the horse and let the moment pass. I have no imperative to GetMoreGoldNow as have short puts on GLD and DRD and SA, and have physical delivery in the pipe.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/22/2021 8:51:31 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> I am edging towards super duper bullishly bearish should the vaccine not work, and the Fed go 'one last round', then all-in and in my own case, a remind to not-forget-about-gold love the interview zerohedge.com Investing Legend Sees "Spectacular" Crash In "The Next Few Months" BY TYLER DURDEN FRIDAY, JAN 22, 2021 - 15:25 Two weeks ago, investing icon Jeremy Grantham turned apocalyptic and warned that the " Bursting Of This "Great, Epic Bubble" Will Be "Most Important Investing Event Of Your Lives." Since then the market has generally continued to melt up, yet Grantham's conviction that all this will end in tears has only grown, and in an interview with Bloomberg today, the co-founder of GMO who correctly called the last two crashes, now predicts that Joe Biden’s economic-recovery plan will propel stocks to perilous new heights, followed by an inevitable crash. “We will have a few weeks of extra money and a few weeks of putting your last, desperate chips into the game, and then an even more spectacular bust,” the value-investing legend said in a Bloomberg “Front Row” interview. “When you have reached this level of obvious super-enthusiasm, the bubble has always, without exception, broken in the next few months, not a few years.” Amid market euphoria the likes of which have - literally - never been seen before as the following chart from Citi shows... [url=][/url] ... and which prompted Citi, BofA and Goldman to all warn that a selloff appears imminent, and which was fueled by risk-taking behavior funded by the latest round of pandemic-relief checks, Grantham has “no doubt” at least some of the $1.9 trillion in federal aid Biden is seeking from Congress will end up being spent on stocks instead of food or shelter. While that will help push stocks even higher, Grantham then sees it all ending in tears, or rather a collapse rivaling the 1929 crash or the dot-com bust of 2000, when the Nasdaq cratered 80% before recovering thanks to trillions more in Fed "stimmy" checks. And while some (increasingly fewer) investors claim that today’s valuations are justified by the growth potential of transformative technologies and new business models, Grantham, 82, dismisses that argument as fanciful, and rejects the popular theory that the Federal Reserve can cushion or even the next crash with even more QE or easing. “At the lowest rates in history, you don’t have a lot in the bank to throw on the table, do you?” he said. Unfortunately for Grantham, and his now cemented reputation as a perma-bear who misses out on rallies, the stock market has sneered at all warnings it will crash and just keeps on rising. To be sure, as we reported last year, GMO’s bearish stance has been costly as assets under management fell by tens of billions of dollars during the decade-long bull market, as the firm steered clear of growth stocks. Then in April, GMO doubled down, insulating its portfolios from directional bets on the market and largely missing out on the second leg of the 2020 rebound. As Bloomberg notes, Grantham thought the economy was on shaky ground even before the pandemic and he was concerned about the steady decline in U.S. productivity, warning that the Fed had only succeeded in blowing out the inequality and income gap to record wides, amid worries that the profit-at-all-costs nature of American capitalism was destroying the environment and fraying the social fabric. For Grantham, the combination of fiscal stimulus and emergency Fed programs led to “spectacular excesses” and pushed an already overvalued market into bubble territory. Echoing BofA's earlier note, Grantham believes that the Fed's "Immoral hazard" will have other devastating consequences as well: “If you think you live in a world where output doesn’t matter and you can just create paper, sooner or later you’re going to do the impossible, and that is bring back inflation,” Grantham said. “Interest rates are paper. Credit is paper. Real life is factories and workers and output, and we are not looking at increased output.” As a reminder, earlier today, BofA's CIO Michael Hartnett - who is similarly concerned about the near-future - warned that asset price (hyper)inflation will eventually drag Main Street inflation higher, risking a disorderly rise in bond yields, which results in a taper tantrum, tighter financial conditions and "volatility events", i.e., a market crash. Grantham agrees and warns that the threat of inflation is the biggest risk, which is why he also thinks that bonds are risky. He also has reservations about gold because it generates no income. And in his view Bitcoin is make-believe nonsense. In short, he is an asset manager who sees no attractive assets, and who is prohibited from shorting because the Fed will just keep ramping prices ever higher. While selling everything and holding cash is one option, Grantham said his best advice for long-term investors is to focus on low-growth stocks that are cheap relative to benchmark indexes, emerging markets and companies fighting climate change with renewable energy and electric-car technology. “You will not make a handsome 10- or 20-year return from U.S. growth stocks,” he said. “If you could do emerging, low-growth and green, you might get the jackpot.” All this and much more in his full 38 minute interview with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker below: d

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)

1/22/2021 9:07:41 PM

From: TobagoJack

Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>>

Jeremy Grantham is bearish on tech but bullish on de-carbonisation tech, negative on bitcoin but okay w/ gold, not bullish of the general market, and warns of loss of faith

Paul Singer negative on bonds, and and and

Together, the two leaves us little wiggle room except non-USD denominated dividend-paying emerging market growth stocks and green investing

... DRD Gold, 0941.HK China Mobile, 0388.HK HKEX, battery makers ...?

bloomberg.com

Singer Says Long-Term Bonds Are a ‘Senseless’ Speculative Trade
Katia Porzecanski

Paul Singer

Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/BloombergBillionaire Paul Singer has a warning for his fellow investors: 1970s-style inflation can happen again, and almost nobody is ready for it.

The hedge fund manager -- a frequent critic of U.S. monetary policy -- said in an interview on Grant Williams’s podcast that the combination of “trillions and trillions” of dollars in Covid-19 relief spending, wage pressures and rock-bottom interest rates has the potential to shock markets. The interview was taped last week and published Friday.

“There’s a really good chance of a tremendous surprise, and a surprise in the relatively near future,” said Singer, speaking on the likelihood of consumer prices spiking higher. “Bonds could have a very significant and abrupt and intense price readjustment.”

Bond-market indicators of future inflation have risen sharply over recent months, with 10-year breakeven rates -- derived from the gap between yields on inflation-linked and ordinary Treasuries -- climbing above 2% to the highest since 2018. That’s up from a low of 0.47% last year at the onset of the pandemic.

Expansionary fiscal policy is helping to drive the change in outlook, even as the Federal Reserve, which holds a meeting next week, has struggled to gin up much inflation in the past decade with its own tools. It’s been promising not to apply the brakes anytime soon –- and urging politicians to hit the accelerator with more pandemic stimulus. President Joe Biden’s new administration is poised to oblige, asking Congress for another $1.9 trillion.

Read more: Inflation Rippling Through Markets Is Just What Fed Wants to See

Singer, whose Elliott Management Corp. has one of the best track records in the hedge fund industry, said that holding longer-term bonds is “senseless” at current yields.

“No institution can meet their goals by owning those bonds. They’re no longer a hedge against equity portfolios,” he said. “When you buy something with no yield, where you can only make money if the yield goes from zero to -5 or -10, you’re engaged in speculation, you’re not engaged in investing.”

Read more about problems facing the 60/40 porfolio

The 40 in 60/40 Portfolios Is Getting Wilder and Wilder

In New 60/40 Portfolio, Riskier Hedges Are Displacing U.S. Debt

Rates Flash Danger for 60/40 Portfolios With Shrug at Stock Rout

Along with inflation expectations bubbling higher, long-term government bond yields have surged, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 1.09%, up 18 basis points just this year. The 30-year yield is up about 20 basis points to 1.85%.

“I’m not talking about to 15%, but a price readjustment to yields of three or four for the 30-year or the 10-year in America would cause quite a ruckus,” he said.

Since opening in 1977, Elliott -- which invests across numerous strategies -- has posted just two losing years and annualized gains of about 13%. The fund gained 12.7% in 2020, beating industry peers.

Singer added that the worst trade he’s ever put on was in 2008, buying Japanese inflation-linked bonds against non-inflation linked bonds. He put the trade on at an implied deflation rate of 2.5% per year.

At the bottom, after Singer had “lost more money than I thought I could possibly lose in any trade,” the notes had an implied deflation rate of 4.5%. The trade eventually swung back, he said.

— With assistance by Zachary Mider

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/26/2021 3:39:34 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Besides the giggles in the GME arena, I added to the laughs that be long DIA Puts Message 33165310 partially financed by the giggles. I understand that the RobinHooders shall soon get replenishment of free chips to the tune of 2000 per head, but I suspect they would not be buying anything in the DIA package, even as all constituents of DIA would be getting their own Fed bailouts. I hardly have any GBTC left, but am wondering why BTC seems juiced out for now. Portends? Time shall tell. Bubbles everywhere looking for pins, and the only cheap spaces be cheap puts and cheap gold. But then hedge funds are blowing up on cheap puts, because they keep getting cheaper.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/29/2021 3:45:36 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Added more, and more flavors ... did not think up these trades, as they are simply ‘examples’ from the timing service i use as auto-bot fidget trades, and they generally do okay. Message 33168824 Shall likely follow up above w/ something more tonight, GME, silver and puts The officialdom and wall street got themselves into a corner, and the peasants are approaching w/ implements in hand. The unwashed looking angry zerohedge.com Washington Demands Hearings On "Manipulation" & "The State Of The Stock Market" *Update (1631 ET):* California Democratic Congresswoman Maxine Waters, who is also the chairwoman of the Financial Services Committee, is the latest high-profile lawmaker calling for a hearing into the recent activity surrounding Gamestop. Waters released this statement Thursday afternoon: "Hedge funds have a long history of predatory conduct and that conduct is entirely indefensible. Private funds preying on the pension funds of hard-working Americans must be stopped. Private funds engaging in predatory short selling to the detriment of other investors must be stopped. Private funds engaging in vulture strategies that hurt workers must be stopped. "Addressing that predatory and manipulative conduct is the responsibility of lawmakers and securities regulators who are charged with protecting investors and ensuring that our capital markets are fair, orderly, and efficient. As a first step in reining in these abusive practices, I will convene a hearing to examine the recent activity around GameStop (GME) stock and other impacted stocks with a focus on short selling, online trading platforms, gamification and their systemic impact on our capital markets and retail investors. "We must deal with the hedge funds whose unethical conduct directly led to the recent market volatility and we must examine the market in general and how it has been manipulated by hedge funds and their financial partners to benefit themselves while others pay the price." * * * A slew of high-profile people have commented on Robinhood's action this morning on trade restrictions of GME (along with several other companies) - going up the ladder of importance - Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts called for the SEC to do more to deal with "stock market manipulation." Meanwhile, Democrat, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, who is also the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, demanded a hearing on the "state of the stock market." Warren told CNBC, "the bigger issue for me is the SEC's inability and unwillingness to deal with market manipulation," adding that "a healthy stock market, you've got to have a cop on the beat. That should be the SEC. They need to step up and do their job." Of course, she was entirely clueless when asked to describe what "manipulation" took place and further raised questions about who was really behind the moves (although we are pleased she held herself back from claiming it was 'Russians'). She released this statement following the recent developments of Robinhood and GameStop. "With stocks soaring while millions are out of work and struggling to pay bills, it's not news that the stock market doesn't reflect our actual economy. For years, the same hedge funds, private equity firms, and wealthy investors dismayed by the GameStop trades have treated the stock market like their own personal casino while everyone else pays the price. It's long past time for the SEC and other financial regulators to wake up and do their jobs - and with a new administration and Democrats running Congress, I intend to make sure they do." And after Warren had explained that the solution was a "2c wealth tax" which would lead to a utopia where "mummies and daddies" could bring up their children with no worries about actually getting or keeping a job (ok, we paraphrased a bit). Meanwhile, Sen. Brown released a statement Thursday afternoon demanding it's time for a hearing on today's events. "People on Wall Street only care about the rules when they're the ones getting hurt. American workers have known for years the Wall Street system is broken - they've been paying the price. It's time for SEC and Congress to make the economy work for everyone, not just Wall Street. That's why, as incoming Chair of the Senate Banking and Housing Committee, I plan to hold a hearing to do that important work," Brown said in a statement. [url=][/url] Brown wants to hold a "hearing on the current state of the stock market." We suspect that the real culprit behind all of this will remain behind the curtain - The Fed's endless easy money and downside protection. Brown's plan should create solid cross-party support considering Senator Ted Cruz echoed similar criticisms made by AOC earlier on. Pelosi earlier said she will be "reviewing" GME. We joked and said: Grab the popcorn; this is going to get good. Is Washington about to fry Wall Street?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/29/2021 3:15:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> No, all SPY / DIA puts sold, simply obeying commands of the timing service per fidget-fidget protocol by ETF options maneuvers. They were all bought earlier this week. The timing service only does long puts / call and the ‘equity’ and leveraged-equity of index / inverse ETFs. My inverse ETFs order of battle (SDOW, SQQQ, SPXU, TZA) are still deployed and battling.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	1/31/2021 3:31:42 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218544

Re << Did you deploy cheap puts? >> Just following along the rehearsal for the Hindenburg Omen, Jaws of Death, and same such sign is given, along w/ call from buddy who has looked out for me since 1991. Below just in in-tray ... Today's Market Comments: Stocks plunged Friday, January 29th, on large volume, but not the highest we have seen in the past week. The market ended January 2021 with its worst week since October 2020. For the first month of 2021, the Industrials and S&P 500 ended below year-end 2020. Before this week, we noted that there was a major Bradley model turn date and a four observation Fibonacci Cluster turn window due this past week. That proved to be accurate. In Thursday's newsletter we wrote, "Friday could be a down day, perhaps wave three down in the pattern of lower highs and lower lows we have seen since late last week." The Industrials closed down 620 points Friday, the S&P 500 lost 73, and the NASDAQ 100 gave up 276 points. This weekend, our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicator remains on a Sell. Our three component NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicator remains on a Sell. Our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Sell. Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, May 20th, and remains there Friday, January 29th, but fell 6 points (out of a possible 9 points), to zero. It needs to fall below negative - 5 for a new Sell signal. To confirm when the next major declining trend is starting, we want to see our Intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator (which was originally named our Technical Indicator Index, but we changed it to reflect the intermediate term nature of the benefit of the signal, 3 months to a year typically) move to a new Sell signal. We show this in the chart on page 13. Our Secondary Trend Indicator, has been on a Buy signal since May 20th, 2020. Since that Buy signal, the Industrials have risen 6,465 points. Prior to that it generated a Sell signal on February 27th, 2020, catching the entire stock market crash. The decline this past week also comes after Bearish Divergences we have been showing for several weeks between prices for the major averages and their 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators, as well as their Demand Power measures, that were telling us a top is approaching that will lead to a declining trend of some significance. We also see a huge Bearish divergence between our Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500. Divergences have excellent correlation with coming trend turns of significance. We noted that these are pointing to a significant decline in 2021. That decline may be starting now. We have mentioned that this is a dangerous development for the stock market. Major negative news will accompany this plunge. This will provide an excellent opportunity for traders. Our Platinum program took advantage of this opportunity with several profitable trades this past week. We generated $18,100 on five closed options trades. We also positioned several Platinum / Silver Service ETF positions which are in a profitable position, but we believe could gain greater value in the coming weeks. So, is more downside coming to the stock market? We think yes. In the chart on page 37, we show the decline in the Industrials since January 20th's high, with a wave mapping that is interesting. The Industrials have declined in a series of waves one-down and two-up of three different degrees of trend. The decline Friday was wave {1} down of 3-down of iii down. The late afternoon bounce was some or all of corrective wave {2} up. Once complete, wave {3} down will follow. This could be a very strong points drop. But this is just the third of five subwaves for 3-down, which is just the third of five subwaves for iii down, all of which suggests significantly lower prices are likely. The larger perspective charts for the stock market warn that major Bearish Patterns have likely just topped. The downside price targets from these large degree patterns are substantially below current levels, even after this past week's decline. What could be the engine for such a coming massive decline? Do we have to think outside past norms? What is different? What is new? What could go haywire? Is anybody studying the escalating technology movement toward transhumanism and what the consequences of that are going to be for mankind? A.I. Robots, A.I. Chips; Nanobot vaccine injections; 5G; 42,000 satellites sent into space over the past few years by a private citizen; Plandemics; Unelected yet empowered CDC totalitarian mandatory lockdowns, mandatory social isolation, and mandatory masks with consequent Respiratory Lactic Acidosis and the loss of a sense of well-being; etc . . . all occurring while we are distracted by political warfare not seen since the Civil War. What changes are starting now, what are coming, that will drive these markets lower? I wonder what God is thinking about all of this. Just wondering. We have to be discerning. We have to be alert. Market patterns are warning something is seriously amiss, which is the point of our work here. The unique benefit about technical analysis is that it provides information about the coming direction of markets from the markets themselves. Markets are the accumulation of all information on the planet established in pricing which over time form patterns that communicate to us where they are headed next. These patterns do not tell us why, or how, or what specific news or events are coming, good or bad. That is left up to our individual insights. We have updated all charts for all markets we cover in this weekend's newsletter. Short-term, on Friday, Gold rose 9, Silver rose sharply, up 0.99. Gold is inside a descending expanding triangle pattern, with a horizontal upper boundary and a declining bottom boundary. See charts on pages 47 and 48. It is inside the final wave e-down of this pattern. The bad news for Gold bugs is, over the short-run, wave e-down looks to need more decline, perhaps even as low as 1,700ish. However, once it falls to that level, it will begin a robust and lengthy long-term rise. Silver should track Gold closely. Mining stocks fell slightly Friday, and look to be completing corrective wave iv down, with v-up to follow. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal January 27th, 2021 and remain there Friday, January 29th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Wednesday, January 27th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on January 25th, 2021, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on January 15th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal. Demand Power Fell 6 to 439 Friday, while Supply Pressure rose 16 to 457, telling us Friday's Blue Chip decline was powerful, with deep pockets intervention supporting prices from a much deeper decline. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal January 29th, and remains there Friday, January 29th, 2021. We received another early warning of a major top approaching from the Bearish divergence evident at this time. The HUI generated a key trend-finder indicator Neutral signal January 28th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal January 8th, 2021, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on January 28th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal January 11th. On Friday, January 29th, Demand Power was flat at 386 while Supply Pressure was flat at 413, telling us Friday's HUI decline was weak. DJIA/SPY PPI Fell 16 to -29.90, on a Sell DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 23.33 Slow 44.00 On a Sell DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 16.67 Slow 33.33 On a Sell DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 23.33 DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 13.33 DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 6.67 Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 6 to Zero, On a Buy Demand Power Fell 6 to 439, Supply Pressure Rose 16 to 457 Sell McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative - 190.50 McClellan Osc Summation Index + 3225.85 Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 12.55, an "OFF" signal DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator - 342.0 on a Sell NYSE New Highs 54 New Lows 5 Today's Technology NDX Market Comments: The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Wednesday, January 27th, 2021, and remain there January 29th, 2021. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on January 27th, 2021, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on January 27th, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on January 27th, 2021. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Shortpositions signal Friday, January 29th and remains there January 29th. On Friday, January 29th, Demand Power Fell 8 to 464, while Supply Pressure Rose 12 to 480, telling us Friday's decline was strong with deep pockets intervention supporting prices. The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal January 28th, 2021, and needs to rise above + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative - 8.0 on Friday, January 29th. NDX PPI Fell 14 to 257.49, On a Sell NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 36.59 Slow 52.20 On a Sell NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 19.05 Slow 39.29 On a Sell NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -8.0 On a Sell NDX Demand Power Fell 8 to 464, Supply Pressure Rose 12 to 480 Sell RUT PPI Fell 6 to 194.44, on a Sell RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -328.0, On a Sell Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments: Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal January 8th, 2021. HUI PPI Flat at + 249.17 on a Buy HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00, Slow 18.33 on a Sell HUI Demand Power Flat at 386; Supply Pressure Flat at 413 Sell McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary from that report is an educational service providing a body of technical analysis that measures the possibility and probability of future changes in mass psychology (swings from pessimism to optimism and back) which identifies possible new trends in major markets within various time frames, from very short term (daily) through very long term (years and decades). The tools we use are based upon price patterns, indicators and other proprietary measures that we have identified as correlative to future market trends. While an investor or trader could come up with ideas and strategies from the information published in our reports, at no time should a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended by this publication or our other services. We are not offering investing advice, but are only offering some (but not all) of the information that can be used in the investment decision making process with your own personal financial adviser. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by Robert D. McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your adviser to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions. Information contained herein is believed to be reliable, but the publisher cannot be held liable for errors or omissions. No specific advice can be construed from the following. The reader is solely responsible for all actions taken. Please refer also to our disclaimer in the back of the newsletter from which this Executive Summary is derived. Copyright c 2021 Robert McHugh

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	2/1/2021 1:28:08 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Raoul says to buy puts but perhaps better to go long TLT and / or go long TLT calls Message 33175335 - Unclear whether gold would get sold as perhaps the Boyz are not long gold, but who can know. - BTC may not have much leverage in it, given its volatility - However, as 'people' realise they can break the system, 'they' might just do it to see, without realising they would be cratering their own 401K Dopamine feed tonight, for drinks, then perhaps we see whether people power can act to puncture the spaceship we all are on. Right now am really only moderately protected by inverse ETFs as I had closed out earlier puts on the indices. Maybe have a chance to get back in when 'they' switch on the machine. Am high cash, and as always, high physical gold.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	2/1/2021 3:43:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re << Did you deploy cheap puts? >> Oops, did it again but at higher price than before. Might have to average down tomorrow.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	2/2/2021 1:03:30 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re << Did you deploy cheap puts? >> Yes, did it yet again, at lower strike but longer term, equal weight as earlier, but cheaper price that shall get cheaper still but cannot wait following on to Message 33176474

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	2/5/2021 3:53:19 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By re3 Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Do not know if cheap, but certainly more puts, as the earlier deployed got cheaper, but get cheaper still

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	2/11/2021 12:52:37 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Tripled up, as guided by fidget-fidget timing advisory, but still no Hindenburg Omen ...

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	3/3/2021 12:10:55 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> Yes, because no time left for hesitation, I fear, and only actions can do, I reckon. Executed first of 1 of 10-11 tranches of anti-bubble cocktail constituted per below blending: - Long 2 parts Puts divided evenly of May and April flavors, - Long 1 part Calls just in case there is still ummmmnnnph in the Nasdaq bubble of all bubbles led by five stocks rolling over - Short 1 part (in share count terms) of QQQ Going forward shall use the funding resulting from the QQQ short to buy more of the Puts, and if necessary, calls. I figure I can recover most if not all of the money spent on Puts and Calls by doing very little between now and the respective expirations even if I do not make money on the options. The beast is indubitably rolling over by look of simplest ocular inspection. Should I make money on the blended deployment, likely would mean everything else cratered, including gold and silver and crypto and and and ...

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)	3/3/2021 8:58:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>> I had followed up on the midnight actions Message 33224745 w/ further pre-dawn stocks, intending for a hedge to evolve into a wager, per campaign mode Doubled short QQQ and short Brazil, with additional prepared small rearguard action position (long ST calls) in case needed. The small leveraged hedge might be just sacrifices to money gods as the bigger pay-offs from shorts expressed themselves. First-day action is encouraging. Be nice if the market does not crash tomorrow. Need more time to fully deploy the revenue from QQQ / EWZ shorts into respective long Puts to add combustion-accelerant / flavor-enhancer / better-ummmmnnnph to the campaign. Unsure why I am bothering w/ ST hedge to the intermediate term bear wagers except as force of habit.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (166494)

3/4/2021 7:34:55 PM

From: TobagoJack

Respond to of 218544

Re <<Did you deploy cheap puts?>>

The earlier deployed puts, in the aggregate, are getting more expensive and so I deployed cheaper puts, while they are still cheaper.

The signs are favourable or not, depending on PoV.

Interest rate up, real or imagined, indubitably up, at first inspection. I do not believe interest rate in truth can remain up, but truth at times not matter. Fiction is much more flexible, and can be massaged to fit the truth.

So, means, I guess, dollar up and everything else down, a/k/a DUEED, including gold, or DUGDEED

As tech was and remains the most egregiously and outrageously valued, therefore most vulnerable, IOW, the low-hanging dangling fruits swinging in the breeze, to be kicked, and then drop-kicked

I deployed more of the revenue from shorting QQQ into long QQQ Puts, a naughty act. The campaign is showing much promise, and all roads seem to lead to the core, where we can find what was deemed important but actually not

QQQ holdings ...

Must be careful, because the science says QQQ heading to 15+% up which might be a misunderstanding of the market or by me nasdaq.com

Implied QQQ Analyst Target Price: $357

Contributor

Mar 4, 2021 8:36AM EST
Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the Invesco QQQ ETF (Symbol: QQQ), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $357.29 per unit.

With QQQ trading at a recent price near $309.16 per unit, that means that analysts see 15.57% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of QQQ's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are DocuSign Inc (Symbol: DOCU), Mondelez International Inc (Symbol: MDLZ), and Netflix Inc (Symbol: NFLX). Although DOCU has traded at a recent price of $219.64/share, the average analyst target is 26.57% higher at $278.00/share. Similarly, MDLZ has 21.05% upside from the recent share price of $52.94 if the average analyst target price of $64.08/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting NFLX to reach a target price of $609.38/share, which is 17.03% above the recent price of $520.70. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of DOCU, MDLZ, and NFLX:

Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:

NameSymbolRecent PriceAvg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target% Upside to Target

Invesco QQQ ETF	QQQ	$309.16	$357.29	15.57%
DocuSign Inc	DOCU	$219.64	$278.00	26.57%
Mondelez International Inc	MDLZ	$52.94	$64.08	21.05%
Netflix Inc	NFLX	$520.70	$609.38	17.03%

Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.

10 ETFs With Most Upside To Analyst Targets »

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.