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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (5708)	3/29/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Cdaisey, At least you should allow people to daydream and to destroy a beautiful dream is cruel. BTW, I do believe that 'Bearons' is having less and less impact on the market these days. They shouted the whole month last October that a market crash was coming. Well, a mini-crash did happen only to be quickly forgotten in the face of another wave of bulls. Also, like you pointed out, the comparison of current market with that of 29 is as stupid as you can get. You have given some very good analysis but did make a major mistakes. It's not thousands of people, but tens of millions of people are actively involved in this market an d basically no single force can pull the market down. Witness the minicrash we experienced last October. The selloff was mainly initiated by big brokerage houses and it was mainly individual investors who brought the DOW back to previous level the following day...... larry! larry!

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (5708)	3/29/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

This isn't 1929 Dr. Coz, while I would like to believe a market crash is impossible, I do not have your faith. Whether the market is controlled by ten men or thousands subject to herd mentality is no different in my mind (I'm not prone to conspiracy theories anyway). Money flows are not permanent nor in a fixed direction (as we know, countries can be bankrupted almost over night when hot-button money flows out) and, in a market economy, money (wealth) can also vanish as quickly (more quickly) than it is created. I just cannot be sanguine. (for your amusement nwlink.com Kip

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (5708)	3/30/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

The same thought occurred to many in Japan in the 80's and 7 years later their market is down 60%. It may see 10,000 before it see's 5,000 but I'm betting it see's 5,000 before to long. You can't have a collapse of the Asian economies, lower earnings from US corps, a trade deficeit of $ 250B, net selling of treasuries by Asia and a continue run up of the market, something will eventually give.

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (5708)	3/30/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Franco Battista	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Fear and Greed, the two basic elements that move the markets, have not changed. Human nature is what is driving this market to impossible valuations, and human nature is what will drive it down to ridiculously low valuations. Human nature does not change, we have the very same human nature at work today as was active in 1929.

To: Cosmo Daisey who wrote (5708)	3/30/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Coz, are you seriously arguing that the '29 crash was caused by ten people manipulating the market? I suppose the bull market up to the crash was the same ten guys manipulating too. Get real! Besides, if they were already short the market, who sold in the collapse. The answer is simple - everyone. Just because a handful of people were smart/lucky enough to go short in time does not prove that they manipulated the market lower or controlled the market. The late twenties was a mania plain and simple and it ended as they always do. Yes, many more people are involved in the market today than in the twenties (or any other time for that matter). Does that mean the mania won't end? No. Perhaps you should also consider the downside to the mass participation in the markets - that the pain will be felt (directly) by more people than in any previous collapse. What will happen to our economy when more people than ever before participate in a bear market? Or, are you saying bear markets can't happen any more either? Bob