| An SI Board Since January 1998 |
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IKM
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This is a thread for discussion of information resources, trading strategies, and development of the speculative opportunity described by Patrick Young in the October '97 issue of Applied Derivatives Trading ( adtrading.com ). Go there, register (it's free), and pick the October '97 issue in the archives and the article of the title above. Some excerpts to get your speculative juices flowing:
The EMU process requires currency rates to be sealed by January 1st, 1999 under the terms of the existing agreements . . . the EU's Finance Ministers have decided that forex rates will be locked "irrevocably" by as early as May 1998.
Frankly, the concept of going from a global billion dollars a day high volatility business, to a market with a fixed price - no matter what the imbalance of supply and demand - appears absolutely barking. To expect it to last for 8 months (somewhere around 150 individual trading sessions), strikes me as being a hugely opportunistic move which has got considerable potential to go sour.
. . . during the 8 month interregnum, EU Central Banks are not obliged to protect other EMU member currencies. Will the Bundesbank therefore show huge interest in defending a currency under attack ahead of its obligations starting on January 1, 1999?
The last time I traded futures was when I bet on Japanese Yen in October 1987. My assets were miniscule (just out of B-school) and I had no business playing futures, but I probably increased my net worth 25% in the space of a few weeks. I heard an interview last year with a trader who acknowledged that he made his retirement fortune from that same bet. As Young describes this one, it sounds like a similar opportunity. Let's delve into understanding the opportunity, mentally steeling ourselves for the inevitable RISK. A chance to ride on the coattails of Soros and his ilk, if we are prepared.
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