Hi CB, <<Is this headline over the top or is there something (else) to worry about?>>
The Chairman named Mao had at one time said “Who is our friend, and who is our enemy, that is the fundamental question, and the question to be answered first …”, and Japan has no friends in Asia, none.
Nope, nothing to worry about, as it turns out that there are plenty of folks on this side of the Pacific ocean knowing exactly what Japan is thinking and may likely be up to, and the next time Japan acts up, America will not have to do very much at all, for the Koreans, in their nutsy-Chaebol-DRAM death-level-discount fashion will take care of what needs to be done.
In the unlikely event that the North-South united Koreans with ready-made existing toys fail, there will be about another 1.odd billion folks in the immediate neighborhood ready to take a go at Japan. Asia has changed, thanks to the Japanese sowing of the seeds. This is why Japan is keen on NMD. It is fortunate that, however NMD will work, it cannot work within the 5-minutes ballistic flight time and that Japan is conveniently concentrated in two greater metropolitan areas.
Disclosure: A quick “Search” on my past postings indicates that my bias may have caused me to be somewhat harsh on the Japan. We will simply have to wait and see.
Chugs, Jay
Reference:
Message 12853201
… <<“Our magical Son is working the crowds to a frenzy.
Frenzy is good.
I am picturing the raised swaying arms of the crowds in Japan gently pass us over head one at a time to Nirvana Ranch on Maui, as the Latino beat pulsate throughout the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with tears in their eyes and NTT Docomo phones around their necks>>
Message 12861272
<<Stop, just stop, it can not go on like this hour after hour, day after day. The crowds in Tokyo do not have enough tears to stream down their messmerized faces>>
Message 15080691
… <<maybe still a Japanese sympathizer>>
Message 15126319
… <<The US will recover much faster than Japan, maybe within 24 months, while I am not sure Japan will ever recover in SI’s life time. Japan may simply slip below the waves altogether, weighed down by the heavy burden of their idle capital, sheltered, demoralized and fast degenerating people. They may even once again turn to a false god born of the empire days>>
Message 15134944
… <<I do not know about the Japanese politicians but none-the-less opinion that the bunch never lived down losing their “justifiable” war>>
<<I feel I am pretty level headed about most subjects I comment on given my market neutral background … born a citizen of Trinidad and Tobago in China, of Chinese Shanghainese (the distinction is important to her) mother (US citizen who had voted for Clinton because e had a nice face) and cocktail dad (Chinese, French, Creole, looked Indian), with English Jewish (living in China) and American Jewish (living in Russia) half brothers, (have gorgeously engineered cousins (some are Italian, Japanese, Chinese, French, African and Scottish mixes), nieces and nephews in all large countries of the world), educated (high school and college) in the USA, and totally corrupted in HK. Most of the clan is still in Trinidad. And yes, I love my country and the folks there, and I think it is good that they do not have to work too hard given that they are floating on oil and gas. I am basically the best and worst of everything, but very happy-go-lucky>>
Message 15137009
… <<The Japanese central bank, its government and the people ruled by the government had almost all the liquid money in the world and that was precisely the problem>>
<<The Japanese certainly wants to save the Japanese economy from the outside world, and yet, even with their astronomical savings, they have yet to succeed ... the means are theirs to use, the will is lacking>>
Message 15257332
… <<I believe in tech, global I-net, Japanese savings, Japan I-net, and at times I even have a secret hope for Japan reform success. I also believe in economic and credit cycles, and I fear the retribution that awaits us at the end of this glorious journey>>
Message 15318267
… <<without fuss, regret and without the need for Japanese style apologies>>
<<Chapter Three - How to recognize Japan:
A country where government infrastructure spending replaces private venture formation, interest rate trends toward zero, rewarding the debtors, taxes are raised then cut, deficit rises, entrenched and self-interested interests rule, markets are propped up, pensioners robbed, and yet, still nothing good happens because hope has been taken away, followed by faith and confidence>>
Message 15330928
… <<(e) The baby boomers will then retire on cheapened money, hollowed out CSCO, and pay back the Japanese on their long term loans to the US, wearing China made clothing and clicking on Taiwan made PCs.
Interesting game plan. Let us hope that there will be no tax increases in the interim, and that the Japanese do not need the money for their own oldsters>>
Message 15332625
… <<It is thus correct to say China’s sub development is aimed at the US, as Japan will not be a country of consequence, much less the Britains of the world, and certainly not India>>
Message 15332628
… <<The borrower of Yen is of course cheering the Japanese retirees to endure a bit longer of getting zerodotzeroodd percentage return on their savings so that we can live better driving Lexus SUVs, eating sushi, tap Sony computers, snicker about Japan and being sanctimonious about what is wrong with their previously feared system>>
Message 15421566
… <<“Japan to Save Economy By Increasing Defense Spending”>>
Message 15481977
… <<I am one with the world everywhere except (you guessed it) while visiting Korea and Japan. Those folks up north puzzle me. Either they will learn or I will>>
Message 15499316
… <<(f) <<The comparison to the ancient period 1929, and the comparisons of present day America with 1980s Japan are misleading>>
You are right, Japan worked more (hours + robots), saved more (30+%), individuals played the market less (<25%), without the help of leverage and Internet, and what debt there was, was cheap, fueled by export earned liquidity, not by depending on foreigners’ largesse>>
(h) <<Russia is no longer in free fall, slowly reviving after the cataclysmic fall of the empire>>
Rome’s fall, as Japan’s, took eons. Many entities pretended, but wealth vaporized for all but the very few. History is not a news clip on CNN;
(i) <<Japan has bottomed, having given back all that was unearned, readying for another charge upward, fueled by liquidity level rivaling any historic period>>
Rome bottomed eventually, but even in its last days, exacted victims. Japan and its liquidity have not yet done its work. The original liquidity bubble, born of the ‘70s oil crisis and resulting aggregation of funds, forced the US and Japan to seek solutions (recycling), thus generating a conduit for the bubble to move from the oil basins back to centers of production. The last twenty years merely witnessed the same bubble being passed back and forth between the two main centers of physical production, gathering more strength with each pass. Ask yourself, which good folks paid the most outrageous sums for US real estate (hint, not the US folks). Let’s hope there is one more pass to go around.
When Japan eventually (sometimes I think “if” rather than “when”), the recovery may be led by massive inflation hereto unseen by history, as the liquid solution of old cause new problems for the future. History is a connected whole, not a series of discrete events.>>
Message 15591228
… <<Hi Arthur, On "why not" fight the FED, I meant the FED will have little to do with the direction of the economy for a while ... else Japan's problems would have been solved 10 years ago. The Japanese did everything their collection of smart folks, systems and institutions allowed them to do>>
Message 15731781
… <<(d) Possibly inducing trillions of Japanese money to provide an exit for the world, once again, and/or>>
Message 15813707
… <<What I lack in imagination, I compensate with suspicion and healthy fear.
The system we got now simply has too many links, and weak ones at that.
This explanation can be used to understand Japan as well>>
Message 15839776
… <<I think gold vs. dollar vs. Euro vs. Yen, trade blocs vs. globalization, Islam vs. Christianity, Hindu vs. Islam, Israel vs. Arabs, Japan vs. Asia ex-Japan, India vs. China, Pakistan vs. India, Russia vs. EU, communism vs. capitalism vs. socialism, gun vs. butter, nuclear power vs. carbon energy, Republicans vs. Democrats, Tory vs. Labor, Marx vs. Adam Smith, inflation vs. price stability, US vs. China, China vs. Taiwan, Via vs. Intel, Legend vs. Dell, Linux vs. Windows, etc. are all dots on the same continuum of geopolitical, socioeconomic and ethnic tapestry. Any issue on this tapestry is related in every way to every other issue>>
Message 15859195
… <<1. Japan is a demographically doomed nation. Their mistreated women folks do not care to make babies with their overworked, alcohol poisoned, and spiritually polluted men folks. There will be more than 50% less Japanese in the world in many of our life times;
2. Halve the population, halve the domestic market demands, quarter the active work force, and decimate the savings, free up the land, pulverize the real estate value, break the banking system (but, I am counting on them to try and not to unload their platinum hoard in a disorderly fashion);
3. At that time, 60 some million Japanese will be living on a resource deprived island amidst of some fairly friendly and relatively large neighbors with a long memory … the two Koreas will have been united, revitalized, and ready to go, China, well, will still be China, and Russia, will, of course still be Russia, and Taiwan, with then have a population of say 40 million and a possibly stronger industrial base, will be, oops, China, and there appears to be some unfinished business from many years ago;
4. Japan’s industry, what is left of it in Japan, as opposed to relocated to China, none with magic or sustainable advantages, will still be 50% concentrated in the greater Tokyo area, at the center, or rather, epicenter, of a quake zone; and
5. No, it is all looking beautifully precarious, and not very good at all, and they know it. Sincere apologies and a profound sense of regret will be the order of some day in our life times, no doubt.
6. Japan can save itself in some more drastic fashion, of course, like by allowing freer immigration. I do not know very many folks wanting to move there, other than from Korea and China, in which case, again, Japan is finished. Its savings ought to be used to buy some neighborhood insurance protection.
Yes, I think the speed at which Japan will duplicate Britain’s fall into irrelevancy will surprise the world. But, yes, I have Japanese relatives, in Trinidad, love Japanese food, some girls, many of Korean origin, all of the gadgets, and some of the movies. No need to learn the language, just as there is little need to study Carthage’s vocabularies :0>>
Message 16020847
… <<I agree, and we should watch for signs that protectionism is getting stronger political support. I am curious to see how Japan and the US intends to cooperate on Japan’s pain-sharing (export) and the US pain-sharing (capital flow).>>
<<Japan has been steering for a while and they are not stupid as the media make them out to be>>
Message 16024396
… <<Japanese JGB 10-year market blows up, because interest rate is raise by 0.125%>>
Message 16063875
… <<Japan's job for the foreseeable future is to surrender its standard of living via deflation of assets and inflation of imported goodies via devaluation; capital and manufacturing outflows; capital, banking, insurance and pension losses.
Given the unnatural interest rate in Japan, dislocations have probably caused the formation of yet more bubbles ... just like a big ship that got hit by torpedos, the sinking takes awhile.
In a short sentence ... I am in no hurry to buy Japan, until DJIA and S&P blows up, and Nasdaq wimpers no more.>>
Message 16063901
… <<Valuing Japan out of context is dangerous, as it had been for the past 15 years.
Borrowing JYen is probably a good idea, if one wants to be burdened with the small volcano risk.
The JGBs will blowup, without regard to whether the volcanos do or not; because interest rate can not stay at zero; if it does, Japan will finish itself faster still.>>
Message 16079563
… <<<<Japan as a threat>> No, I don't believe Japan is a threat. I referenced them only because that they are (so is everybody else, no doubt) working on this which could be the basis of the truly fabulous big kaboom ... >>
Message 16090882
… <<For a regional example, Japan just decided to protect its salt industry from Chinese import competition. Silicons, salts, electrons, what's the difference. And so, the Shanghai mag-lev train will be sourced from Germany, and if successful, the new Beijing-Hong Kong mag-lev train. Trains, cars, machine tools, what's the difference.>>
<< Taiwan is the place I am watching ... capital gush is still picking up pace, split between US and China. An unofficial strategic alliance between US and China against Japan should be able to squeeze quite a bit of capital from that country too, benefiting all others, including unofficial alliance partners <g>.>>
Message 16091917
… <<... and I believe the solution is to gang up on the Japanese and rob them of their savings ...
... which, BTW, is exactly what the world is doing, but we call it "reform".
I am just trying to figure out why I am not taking advantage of the opportunity to borrow Yen and not pay back.>>
Message 16104084
… << Or, to look at the banking issue in another way, the world's bank, called Japan, is very ill ... >>
Message 16111099
… <<... No, it is not Japanese, as you should have guessed:0) >>
<<My conclusion upon finishing with the 13-page article is “If Japan fails to save itself, we are in trouble; and if Japan succeeds, we are in bigger trouble, at least in the short run of say 5 years”.>>
Message 16118003
… <<I can imagine my feelings should I be the guy waking up from the happy slumber you described ... I would wake up, feeling hungry, go to neighborhood sushi house, newspaper in hand, sit down and after ordering, proceed to read the news ...
... leave quickly for the toilet, throw up and otherwise cleanse myself of what I do not have in my stomach, mostly bubbles, try look for a job that is not there, feel despondent ...
... and eventually put in a vote for any politician promising to repatriate any and all overseas assets in attempt to 'jump start' Japan via voodoo economics, whether the scheme would work or not is no longer my concern, because I just want to have a distribution to ease my life.
The money flows back to Japan, banks are saved, economy now dependent on domestic consumption, and all is well ... at least in Japan.>>
Message 16118333
… <<I also note that, historically, during such unfortunate times as they are suffering (apparently obliviously by all accounts, and even happily, by observation of the tourists in Hawaii, Hong Kong and China), voodoo politicians get a crack at powerful offices, and in Japan's case, they may be in already.
Voodoo does not have to work. It is only enough that people believe it will work, downside consequences be ignored.
We will all have to live by the Japanese voters' choice, and thus my worry>> |
