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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/21/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: Cheeky Kid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

What if you don't have 50 words? I believe Greenspan may come in and say something to cool off the market. Who knows, 40% drop may be 60%. Even if they dropped 40%, in my opinion they are still way over valued. Are we not due for another correction soon, anyways?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/21/1998 9:21:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Respond to of 3543

1. The Tulipomania Blowoff Contest Index will drop at least 40% over the five trading days beginning on Tuesday January 5th, 1999. This will be attributed to a general market panic induced by an article which will run in one of the business newspapers (such as the Wall Street Journal or Investor's Business Daily). The article will be about the Tulipomania Blowoff Contest--and may or may not give my prediction as an example. That part I cannot yet say for sure. ;-) --MM

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/22/1998 10:38:00 AM
From: Zirdu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

My prediction, is that these net stocks will begin their drop with the first trading day in 1999. All of these stocks of course have huge gains in 1998. Many of their stockholders are likely sitting on huge capital gains, but are waiting till 1999 to sell and so put their tax gains off into the next year. The net stocks pricing in the market seems chaotic, in the scientific sense. Like the weather, a small change on the margin somewhere can magnify itself into a huge change in the momentum. I say that change will come starting January 4th, the first trading day of 1999, and be due to some of the net stock's "long term" (if such a term is appropriate for stocks that were IPO's in 1998!) holders bailing out. If you look at the history of some other stocks that have been at the top of the gainers for one year, it is not unusual for them to have a bad year the following year, for the above reason.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/22/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: purecntry5	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

who is ponying up the 5 G's for this contest?? Çß

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/22/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 3543

1. Hello Auric with the internet Gold-Finger -g- My FURST internet top is for Christmas EVE. It's possible we will have a 40% decline into the 3rd week of January and will gladly accept the prize if it happens -g- and that's my prediction. Reasons why: vertical nature of the internet indexes, Amazon.com who is bleeding money is valued higher than many Dow stocks that have made profits and paid dividends for decades. If that don't work, we will easily lopp off 40% in the March-April topp to July 99 low. NOW IF YOU WANT A 40% 5 DAY DECLINE IT WILL BE IN LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY 99. Marke IT NOW. bb

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/23/1998 2:05:00 AM
From: Hector	Respond to of 3543

Auric, 1. One or more of the internet "guru" analysts and their firms will have a meeting with their consciences and start to question what they've helped to foster. When some of these internet stocks reach the targets set by these analysts, (e.g. AMZN, $400) they will reduce their rankings. This will trigger a sell-off, which will then feed upon itself. At the rate some of these stocks are moving, Dec. 29, 1998 sounds like as good a date as any to me. 2. Alan Greenspan will start to have doubts about what he has helped to foster. He will be interviewed and question the reasonableness of the valuations of these stocks. He'll use the words "internet bubble" in his interview and that will set off rapid selling, which will then feed upon itself. I expect this scenario to take place Feb. 20, 1999. 3. Margin requirements for internet stocks will be raised to 200% of the amount invested. Since most of the movement in these stocks appears to be due to concerted manipulation by certain groups of daytraders, interest in these stocks will quickly be lost and they'll tank. I expect some external event like Russia's default on debt or a final Japanese death spiral to get the blame. Since everybody knows January is an up month, It will happen around Jan. 25, 1999. When everybody knows something, it's not worth knowing. Regards. Dave Walter

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/23/1998 4:30:00 PM
From: johnd	Respond to of 3543

1) Jan 5th, 99. Reason: Profit taking in 99 2) Jan 20th, 99. Reason: Slower growth warning from one of the internet companies 3) April 9, 99. Reason: 99th day of 1999. Computer glitch kindles crash

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/23/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Annette	Respond to of 3543

1) I will guess January 19, 1999 Why? It always seems to ME that Tuesdays are bad, at least this year when I had class and couldn't babysit the stocks...something bad always seemed to happen. Also, The euphoria of the holidays has worn off, the credit card bills come in, the weather is cold and it all points to everyone dumping their internet stocks(maybe because of seasonal depression due to lack of sunlight)...except AOL, they are now exempt because of the S&P 500! Annette

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/24/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: Slumdog	Respond to of 3543

#1) I predict that it will happen the second week of Feb. 99. (8th), Trading is halted suddenly in internuts. SEC launches investigation into suspect trading and accounting practices. Involvement with Long Term Capital Management exposed. They attempted to pay back the FED for bailout with internut play. Two weeks later. Resume trading. Gap down to 25. Absolutely no chance to get out.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/25/1998 12:54:00 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 3543

Sorry, but IMHO this contest is an effort to funnel ideas to shortsellers. This could result in a tendency to create "self fulfilling prophecies". If someone came up with a good idea he may collect the $5000. If Mssrs. Goldfinger & Co. take that idea up and spread it anywhere - if it's compelling they'll be making millions. So Mr. Goldfinger doesn't have a position now in net stocks, he may have one in the future. I do have long positions in some stocks with e-biz appeal and I think that this "contest" is just an effort to create volatility. However I do believe that one should put money where his mouth is. My mouth isn't here so I shut up. Only want to stress that this looks more than odd and of questionable substance. Imagine longs to make an "idea" contest for real a snake-oil sales scheme. Anyone would depict that as a contest for "pump & dump" scriptwriting and rightly so. Just because this is a shorts' effort this should be viewed entirely different ? Can't hardly believe that. best regards CROSSY

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/26/1998 12:39:00 AM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

1. The collapse will begin on Tuesday, December 29. The reason is that this is the first day that people with huge capital gains can sell their stocks and not have to pay taxes until April, 2000. The reason it's Tuesday and not Jan 4 of 2000 is that there is a 3 day settlement period, so proceeds from sales on December 29 are not taxable until they are "received" on Jan 1, 2000. This gives everyone 1 trading day to initiate short positions for the coming collapse. On Tuesday the knowledgable people will begin selling. The less sophisticated investor will wait until Jan 4 (the first trading day of the new year) without realizing that they could have sold next week. This will be their fatal error.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/26/1998 8:07:00 PM
From: HiSpeed	Respond to of 3543

1) My prediction is it never happens! While there will be days when Inets are 'dragged out into the street and shot' they will rebound just as quickly. The "BIG 3": AOL, YHOO, AMZN will be fine. AOL is less subject to the extreme moves we see in the others simply because it is a NYSE stock. Only the naive would believe the MMs aren't having a ball playing with prices on other inets stocks the way a cat plays with mice - before it eats them. OTOH I won't rationalize the values at which these puppies trade. However, I will offer the supply and demand theory for the ADRs.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/27/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: Sea Otter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

1) When: May 11th, 1999. Why: Major terrorist attack on US soil via a weapon of mass destruction. A high-visibility target is hit (maybe Wall Street?) and the result causes a panic and massive downdraft in stocks of all sorts. Highly speculative bubble stocks are hurt the worst, since they depend on extreme public optimism in order to keep their value.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/27/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: Sea Otter	Respond to of 3543

2) When: July 1st, 1999. Why: y2k (I bet a lot of people think this will be the reason). Ok, the media won't have anything better to do, so they'll start relentlessly hyping the y2k issue. Also, every nutcase on the planet will be doing the same. It doesn't matter whether there is a y2k technology bug or not - there surely is a y2k societal bug. That is, there will be enough fear and millineal(sp?) fever over this date to begin with, and y2k will simply be the match to set it off. Specifically, people will wonder if the internet will function come y2k. If no internet, what happens to the value of the internet companies? Geniuses will put two and two together and there you have it: crash.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/27/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: Sea Otter	Respond to of 3543

3) When: These stocks NEVER go down, they keep doubling forever, into the infinite future. Why: This is the Dawn of A New Age, the age of Peace and Prosperity, where the old rules no longer apply, and the lamb shall lie down with the lion (but perhaps not get much sleep). We are smarter than all previous generations, more attractive too, and there is nothing that will ever stop the ever-upward spiral into the glowing rhinestone-studded sky of digital e-commercial progress. Amen. And place another market buy on Yahoo.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/28/1998 2:20:00 AM
From: Ed Bowes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

1.) 01/15/1999 The overall fundamental backing of a stock's price is the company's current assets, as well as future assets (cash) based upon earnings potential. Most internet stocks are trading well above their assets per share. For example, Amazon.Com (AMZN) has a book value per share around $3.50. However, the stock is trading around $325 per share, leaving a price-to-book value of almost 100. In order for Amazon to maintain this stock price, it needs to have assets closer to $40.00 per share, bringing the price-to-book down to under 10. In order to sustain current stock prices, internet companies with 20-100 million shares outstanding will need to each generate $2 billion in net profits in next 2 years. This will quickly be seen as impossible by the investment community, after the holiday shopping numbers materialize the first week of January 1999. Put simply, the numbers, in terms of current and near-term assets (which will be cash from profits), will not add up and most internet stocks will decline to more appropriate levels.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/29/1998 3:20:00 AM
From: AlaskaBud	Respond to of 3543

My Guess 1) January 26th, 1999. Internet Mania is nothing more than a legalized pyramid game and they all collapse at some time. Bud

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/29/1998 3:44:00 AM
From: Charles	Respond to of 3543

My #2 post: Jan. 4, 1999 is the peak. AMZN will probably rise strongly up to Jan. 4(I pick amzn because it should lead the pack). Then I don't foresee any more good news better than aol is going to s&p500 and amzn to ndq100. I see the initial selloff will be triggered by market selloff around Jan 5. CBOE VIX is rising!(option market is telling you something.) AMZN may drop sharply 40% and then retrace 1/2 of drop. Then if you want to short, the time to do it is on the day of amzn's earnings announcement. I foresee then another 50% drop. I internet sector will drop until Zapata pulls out of internet market.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/29/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: Early Out	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

1) Business Week will feature at least one of the Tulipmania stocks on the cover of the Feb. 15th edition of the magazine. The week of Feb. 15th-19th will not be kind to the Internuts. The decision by the Business Week editors to give in and give coverage to these stocks will lead to their impending doom. Note that I do not know for sure when one of these stocks will be on the cover, so if it happens to be before or after the week of Feb. 15th, start selling! -jsc

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/31/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: Tavros	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Auric, #1 : I don't know when it will happen. But if it happens, it will NOT be because it is a Tulipmania Blowoff. It will happen because of a major unanticipated event that is not currently reflected in the stock prices. Some additional thoughts follow THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THIS FORUM, and all the views posted here, guarantee that, to some extent, these scenarios are reflected already in the prices. So forget high PE ratios, no earnings, tax effects, etc. People who talk about Tulipmania miss the extent of the fundamental sea change that is taking place with internet in retailing, distribution, dissemination of information, etc., etc. Are the high stock prices justified? Most likely they are overdone. But efforts to quantify by how much and to pinpoint timing are at best futile. Also a very good point that has been made in this forum is, that the AOLs and YHOOs of the world are going to be the last to correct (if such a correction takes place!) Which brings me to my last point. If you look at history and look for events that have stop developments in their tracks, you conclude that it takes events such as wars or physical disasters. So, to add bit of spice to your forum, I would post a MAJOR EARTHQUAKE in California as an example of such an event that would bring about a blowoff to the internet stocks (war is not in the radar). Most of high tech innovation is coming out of California and a major earthquake there would have an impact that would go beyond the local effects. My 5 cents (hoping to convert them into $3,500) Tavros

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/31/1998 9:35:00 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3543

IMPORTANT RULE MODIFICATIONS:CRASH Measurement Period extended to 8 trading sessions (or less). As well, contest will end January 1, 2000 if the Tulip Index has not met the criteria for a 40% decline by that date. IF, after conferring with the judges, as well as the posters, Mr. Goldfinger decides to extend the contest and additional year he shall make it so and post that extension to this thread. There have been some excellent posts and the judges and myself would like to encourage further participation. Good Luck!

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	1/3/1999 1:17:00 AM
From: jpbrody	Respond to of 3543

1.) (Date: January 29, 1999) Why: The Internet Advertising Bureau (http://www.iab.net ) will release the third quarter Internet Advertising Report at the end of January (an independent report done by PriceWaterhouseCoopers and released quarterly, the 2nd quarter report is available at iab.net ). The report will show that the growth rate in internet ad dollars is no longer astronomically high and that more and more advertising deals are being done on a performance basis rather than a cost/impression basis. Amazon has shown through their affiliates program (a commission based program) that a performance based advertising campaign can cost less than 10% of a cost/impression campaign. This will force a re-evaluation of revenue projections, particularly for portal sites, other internet companies will come back to earth with the portals. The outrageous projections have been based on a cpm rate and the expectation that eventually the big boys (Proctor & Gamble, Coca-Cola, etc) will spend their ad dollars on-line to build their brand. It'll never happen. -- Jim

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	2/1/1999 7:05:00 PM
From: Cheeky Kid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Is my entry valid? Monday, Dec 21 1998 1:15PM ET Message 6920144 Don't I get a pat on the back?

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	3/21/1999 5:56:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 3543

#2 3/21/99 These 5 net stocks will decline 40% as a result of a nasty general market correction caused by rising bond yields and oil prices. The general market has become extremely vulnerable for a variety of reasons. First, fund inflows for '99 are running at a rate of less than half that of '98. techstocks.com techstocks.com Second, the breadth as shown by advancers/decliners has steadily deteriorated for the past 2 months, proving that participation in the rally is waning. decisionpoint.com Notice how current advance decline line is in a nearly identical formation to that of Aug.15th 1981, which was preceded by the deep low in 1980 followed by a 40% rise in the markets. decisionpoint.com Sound familiar? A nasty 20% decline ensued once the A/D line took out the 1980 low. I predict a repeat performance in the general markets as the current A/D line takes out the Oct. 98 low. This spells trouble for the net stocks, which have been the market leaders. So what are the events that pushes this market off the edge of the cliff, which is where the A/D line suggests it is? The key items to maintaining a healthy bull market in stocks are strong fund inflows and declining bond yields/rising bond prices buoyed by lowering inflation expectations. The rug has been pulled on this scenario for the short term, as OPEC continues to get its act together. Oil prices will rise substantially over the next couple weeks, as panic buying materializes by end users and finally disbelieving shorts. With oil prices up 60 to 80% over their lows just a few months ago, inflation expectations will begin to rise... and the scenario for disinflation/deflation will temporarily be aborted. Those in the know are well aware that low inflation expectations provide much needed fuel for a rising equities market. This "fuel" will be replaced by lead and the balloon will collapse, as bond prices tumble to new recent lows on the change in inflation expectations. The trump card behind this prediction is the fed meeting on March 30th & 31st. With these conditions worsening into that meeting, and anecdotal evidence of rising wholesale and consumer prices going into the meeting, the equities markets will see panic selling into and through the meeting, worried that Greenspan will now finally realize that the "insurance" purchased last fall to protect against a deflation related depression is no longer needed. Quite the opposite, as Asia shows further signs of recovery and the American economy continues to grow at an above trend level. As the long bond inches toward 6%, market players now begin to realize that bond yields have risen 27% off their 4.7% lows, making equities 27% LESS valuable than they would be with a 4.7% yield. But what did equities do while the bond yields rose 21%? (4.7 -> 5.7) They rose 43.3%!!! (923 -> 1323 SPX). This has created much tension on valuations. Since this will be a valuation correction, the most overvalued stocks will be hit the hardest. Net stocks have probably gotten ahead of themselves a bit <g>, and many investors are sitting there with huge gains. Profit taking driven by the collapsing general markets will bring the all important 40% correction to fruition. Do not be surprised if many Wall Street Brokerages who missed the huge run up in net stocks now come out and downgrade or recommend outright sells in order to bring the stocks into their buy zone. David

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	8/27/1999 11:44:00 AM
From: Tim McCormick	Respond to of 3543

#1) Date crash begins: 8/30/99. Catalysts include: tightening Fed, weak dollar, IMF discredidation, technical deterioration, Greenspan's Wyoming speech, Clough resignation, trade tensions, labor strife, and multiple violent uprisings. The Fed has raised the FF rate twice. The assumption of this being the end is polyannish. The historically strong dollar has allowed inflation to stay in check. This trend is over. The dollar has plunged vs. the yen recently. This is an indication of repatriation going into Japanese fiscal YE for balance sheet dressing. Recent huge bank merger in Japan is smokescreen to hide derivative losses and bad loans. Yen carry trade has blown up destroying bank and hedge fund liquidity. Although the US dollar index is still stable, this will change next week as the equity market weakens and all intl. players begin repatriation. The recent Russian money laundering issue has destroyed political support for the IMF. This this takes away psychological support for end of third world crises as Ecuador defaults on Brady bonds. The cumulative A/D line is scraping new lows as indexes float higher. Greenspan's Wyoming speech has made it clear he will tighten until wealth effect is diminished. Charles Clough resigns as his multi year caution forces this high profile bear to throw in the towel. Trade tensions are growing with Europe as the US trade deficit balloons. Labor strife is growing as Boeing and NW Air have problems. Violent uprisings are increasing in Indonesia, Russia, Brazil and maybe even Harlem next week. Get out your checkbook Auric. Tim

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	9/10/1999 3:52:00 AM
From: S. maltophilia	Respond to of 3543

#2 10/22/99 Analyst does turnaround on Inut stocks A prominent and outspokenly bullish wirehouse Internet analyst suddenly resigns his post and joins an investment boutique with no underwriting relationships. He then appears on CNBC and blasts brokerage analysts for pimping stocks solely to curry favor (and investment banking fees) with the issuers. He recants all his previous recommendations, going into explicit detail how analysts spin a lousy "business model" and a perpetual string of losses into a bullish scenario. He does an in-depth analysis of one of his former favorite stocks showing how its finances lead to an inevitable Chapter 7 within a year.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	12/10/1999 2:48:00 AM
From: S. maltophilia	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

#3 12/15/99 Index fund passes on YHOO Citing its fiduciary duties, and its presence in a great number of retirement accounts, a prominent index fund announces that it has not and will not buy YHOO. Furthermore, it will evaluate AOL and other absurdly valued issues in the index and dispose of them as well. This cold splash of reality causes the i'nut bubble to burst as money flows from them to more reasonably priced issues in a traditional year-end rally.

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	1/6/2000 4:14:00 PM
From: Zog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

How am I looking? #reply-12392636? Given Lucent just warned, I suspect things may get ugly in tech land (knock on wood)!

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	1/6/2000 8:58:00 PM
From: AugustWest	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3543

SO tell me, those of you been 'round long enough. Is this an '87 senerio or are we looking more at the '71-'74 bear market? The quick falls tend to make the rebound just as fast and continue to plow further. The slow steady step down is what we need for the 71'-74' market(which BTW I only know about from what I've read on it.)

To: Sir Auric Goldfinger who wrote (1)	10/7/2000 7:05:45 PM
From: PMG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

1) 10/10/2000 Because in recent weeks there has been a serious decline in trust of the interconnection of visions and their exploitability for profits. This is accelerated by concerns in sysstem stability i.e. what the consequences of defaults could be. The fear of a chain reaction is finally the cause why there will be an overwhelming majority of sellers over long-termers and buy-the-dippers. As Keynes said, stock markets are not about reality but about perceptions. After interest rate increases, economic slow down, valuations, oil prices and 'just' market risk the walls of warry have become so high, that the fear of more AAPL-like 50% slashes makes people so sleepless that the stay out, reduce/are forced to get out off margin, short sell etc. In recent moth the writing on the wall has been there, the reasons are know. What was missing was the time variable. With this earnigs season we seem to have this moment of truth that starts what has been overly due. Well, I'm looking forward to win the price! Please notify me if I made a formal error... PMG