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Gold/Mining/Energy
Smoky/Boltan Natural Gas Exploration Play
An SI Board Since March 2002
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Emcee:  Kerm Yerman Type:  Moderated
Smoky/Boltan Natural Gas Exploration Project As Of March 26, 2002

This Northwestern Alberta exploration play is considered a "high risk", but also a "high reward" project. Significant reserves and production could be added to the joint venture partners if the drilling results are successful.

The originator of this exploration project was Olympia Energy. Olympia obtained working interest partners to share the capital costs; ideally, these partners are "promoted" into the play by paying more than their share of the costs. Cost of drilling the well is between $11-12 million. Drilling commenced November 13, 2001.

The below list reflects the "Before Payout" and "After Payout" interests in the joint venture. Also, note that some of the sections (6) was farmed out by AEC and RioAlto (formerly Renata) to complete the area play. This land was due to expire in November 13, 2001 leaving little time for these larger companies to evaluate the play. As a result of the farm out agreement, these companies retain a 10% non-convertible override.

Joint Venture Partners

Company Name Symbol BPO APO Company Tel #
Olympia Energy (OLY) 26.67% 44.00% (403) 265-2723
Meota Resources (MRZ) 27.50% 19.00% (403) 781-2445
Nation Energy* (NEGY-US) 25.00% 15.00% (800) 400-3969
Birchill Energy (Private) 12.50% 13.00% Unknown
High Point Energy (HPE.A) 8.33% 5.00% (403) 264-2487
Norglen 0.00% 4.00% (am making inquiry as to identity)

*Nation Energy is based in Vancouver and their shares trade in the U.S. on the OTCBB.

Background

A deep Devonian exploration well has been drilled to the target depth of 4,800 metres in the Boltan area at 9-9-59-2W6M. In addition to the deep Devonian targets in the Nisku, Wabamum and Leduc reefs, there are several shallower zones, which also may result in a successful well. This is one of the benefits of drilling a deep well in which all the zones are owned.

Olympia developed the Leduc Play "in-house". It was the high-density 2D seismic shot by Olympia and the subsequent interpretation of the geological model which were key to the acceptance of the play. The drillable anomaly is a significant distance back from the edge of the regional Leduc reef (commonly referred to as the "Simonette reef edge." The Olympia interpretation clearly shows the "Boltan Channel" which supports the geological model.

The well location is approximately 3.5 miles away from an AEC-producing well (3-11-59-3W6M) which had also been drilled a significant distance from the Simonette edge. The offsetting well is currently producing 7.5 mmcf/d and has recovered an approximate 9 bcf to date.

According to the Olympia interpretation, the drillable anomaly under its land is ten times the size of the AEC discovery. On seismic, the structure appears to be 10 sections in size (about 10 square miles). It appears to be an atoll feature which will probably result in partial structure development - roughly about 60%. However, due to the depth of the well, the reservoir should be high pressure which would indicate large reserves in place. Initial estimates are up to 1 trillion feet of recoverable reserves. Even if it is only as big as the AEC pool, this will impact gas reserves of all participants in a big way.

The announcement of March 25, 2002

Meota Resources Corp., Olympia Energy Inc., and Partners announce that the Meota Olympia et al Boltan well located at 09-09-59-02-W6M has reached total depth and has been logged. The logs indicate that the well penetrated a significant reefal development within the Nisku Leduc complex. During drilling, the well encountered numerous drilling breaks with associated natural gas. Meota is proceeding with completion and testing which will take up to 30 days. Testing will determine the well’s economics and preliminary reserves.

Impact

Although information is preliminary, this does appear to be a very significant discovery. Based upon what I have heard and seen in print, I am placing a conservative recoverable reserve estimate of .5 tcf on the play. That would be within the range (200 bcf to 1 tcf) of other fields in the region such as Windfall, Pine Creek and Obed. Again, actual results should be known within 30 days (some say in just a couple of weeks).

Assuming the field approximates my estimate, along with other factors such as a conservative Cdn$1.25 in ground reserve value and added develpment costs, this play could yield a value of an approximate Cdn$300 million in reserve value. One can estimate added impacting net asset value to the involved companies - simply multiply the total reserve value by the earned interest and divide that number by the company’s number of fully diluted shares outstanding.

Caution

A word about Devonian reservoirs. Besides having capability of holding huge amounts of natural gas, they have also been known to hold quite a little water. In addition, these limestone reservoirs are not always fully developed from a permeability basis - gas may be present but it doesn’t mean it will flow.

Disclaimer

I am starting this subject because I have an interest in one of these participating companies. On the other hand, isn’t this why we start these subjects to begin with. Consider my opinions as just one person’s opinion. Perform your own due diligence and consult with your financial adviser as you see fit.

I’m excited about this play from an investment viewpoint. Is anyone else?
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
32Not great news....... to date. Meota Resources Corp. and partners announce statRichard Saunders-5/10/2002
31Kerm, I agree that delays on results are due to testing not yet completed. Thanteevee-4/30/2002
30teevee I just don't think they are done testing or finalized analysis. WheKerm Yerman-4/30/2002
29Kerm, I'll add my two cents worth in on the rumor mill....I heard the delay teevee-4/30/2002
28Mr. Resource I agree - all the participants got wacked today - big time. Work Kerm Yerman-4/29/2002
27Anything is possible. I see a number of factors here: 1. There will be any numteevee-4/29/2002
26There's some whispering around Calgary today that the well has water problemmrResource-4/29/2002
25Given the amount of money to be made long or short, I see two possible scenariosteevee-4/29/2002
24some rather ugly action on OLY last week and today. Boltan results were to be exmrResource-4/29/2002
23Research / Meota Resources Copied from another stock talk site Merrill Lynch CKerm Yerman-4/27/2002
22Annual Report / Olympia Energy Olympia Energy Inc. Announces Cash Flow and EarnKerm Yerman-4/20/2002
21Research Report / Meota Resources Meota Resources Reinstated Near-Term `Buy'Kerm Yerman-4/20/2002
20M&A / High Point Energy High Point Energy to Buy Mesquite Exploration for CKerm Yerman-4/20/2002
19M&A / High Point Energy High Point and Mesquite announce agreement for HighKerm Yerman-4/20/2002
18Financing / Nation Energy CUBIX INVESTMENTS LTD.: NATION ENERGY INC. - Cubix EnKerm Yerman-4/14/2002
17Financing / Nation Energy NATION ENERGY INC - Closes Private Placement TorontKerm Yerman-4/14/2002
16All / Meota Resources Links <b>Home Website</b> meota.com <b>Kerm Yerman-4/13/2002
15Mr Resource / Home Alone Glad to see there is someone else interested in this sKerm Yerman-4/13/2002
14Hi Dave - I may play through Meota. MRZ looks attractive without Bolton to me. Bearcatbob-4/13/2002
13Hey Kerm - I got into this play through OLY back when they first spud this well.mrResource-4/13/2002
12StockTalk / Share Activity David Pescods Late Edition Olympia Energy (T-OLYKerm Yerman-4/13/2002
11Financial / High Point Energy High Point Energy Corp. (CDNX:HPE) CALGARY, ApriKerm Yerman-4/12/2002
10Coming Announcement / Countdown A week has gone by and no posting activity hereKerm Yerman-4/12/2002
9Financing / Nation Energy Nation Energy Announces Closing of Private Placement Kerm Yerman-4/5/2002
8Research Report / Jennings Capital April 1, 2002 This report relates to the imKerm Yerman-4/4/2002
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