Summary Rev 4c of CDMA2000 Links
4/3 Rev 4c QCOM Link Summary
QUALCOMM CDMA Summary Rev 4c (Revised 4/3/2001 for content), CDMA 2000 1X & 1X DV Data Links
SUMMARY Rev 4c:
ADDED MORE LINKS (+++= new) TO lengthy summary of articles and links that support the thesis that QCOM
and its CDMA technology are:
1) superior to competitive technology which is not operable, has limited data rates, and serious unresolved
technical/health issues,
2) deployed and operable as 2.5G 1X (154 to 307 Kbps),
3) Successfully pilot tested 1X EV at up to 2.4 Mbps,
4) accepted by China for massive $2.42 billion, 13 million sub build out in 2001 escalating in China possibly to $8.2
billion, 50 Million subs by 2005,
5) accepted and currently operational in India in with 3-5Million limited mobility WLL
phones to be sold in 2001,
6) operational as 95A in North America at Sprint, Verizon, Bell Mobility in Canada and
moving to 1X in 2001 at Sprint, in 2001/2002 at Verizon, in 2001 at Bell Canada
Mobility,
7) chosen by Nextel to replace current IDEN network and be operational in 2002
8) operating now in Korea as 1X,
9) operating this year as 1X at KDDI in Japan,
10) operating now as 95A at Telestra in Australia,
11) immediately operating in Australia as a brand new QCOM owned 8 city 1X-EV
(1.2Mbps) network to be built rapidly and completed by early 2002 by QCOM
Message 15563346
12) operating now in numerous smaller countries and,
13) planned rapid build out in many other countries
Subscriber 5 year growth rates for CDMA 95A, 1X and 1X EV have been estimated at 39%/yr while only 20% for
the competing European GSM, GPRS, and W-CDMA upgrade path. Banks and operators supporting the European
upgrade path are traumatized by delays in the technology and the approximately $150 billion spent by operators
in Europe for 3G licenses for which useable European 3G technology is years away.
GROWTH RATE:
Message 15506194
QCOM has released BREW software to be used by creative 3rd party inventive software writers to write useful C,
C+ & Java programs to be used in CDMA wireless phones. UNLIKE MSFT, QCOM has NO PLANS or means to
"eat its babies" by creating some massive Windows Like software incorporating the genius ideas of these 3rd party
software writers. It has set up a QCOM qualifying and monitoring procedure to
insure the quality of such programs whose code will flow from software writers to network operators to wireless
phones thus enriching software writers and wireless network operators as well as QCOM. In short, 3rd party
software writers will have a lightning love affair with QCOM unparalleled in the history of computers/software and
simultaneously reduce GSM, GPRS, TDMA and possibly non-QCOM W-CDMA
competitive advantage by means of first mover market advantage. Unlike the one size fits all philosophy on MSFT
Windows versions of creative programs, QCOM's wireless BREW model allows a myriad of unique programs
whose diversity will have the effect of mass customized killer software applications:
Message 15523155
Serious developer interest in Brew
Message 15575735
AND
Message 15581171
AND HP Java solution for Brew
Message 15338302
AND Wireless Knowledge Enterprise Mobility Apps
Message 15344148
AND huge Japanese support
Message 15316272
I. SUPERIOR QCOM TECHNOLOGY
a) Dr Jacobs' slide points out the huge bits/second efficient spectrum usage advantage QCOM's 1X and 1XEV have
over GSM, GPRS and W-CDMA. (Slide2)
qualcomm.com
b) The May QCOM "White Paper" compares the economics of CDMA 95A, 1X and 1X-EV networks to that of
GSM, GPRS, and WCDMA networks in the upcoming era of increased data usage. Conclusion is that
(1) ultimately network cost of providing of data using a 1X-EV network is a fraction of cost to provide the data with
a W-CDMA network
(2) user experience is better w/ 1X-EV because its much higher peak data rates will allow data downloads in a
fraction of the time of W-CDMA,
(3) in a head-to-head competition between networks providing data to
customers tolerating a $40/month wireless bill, the 1X and 1X-EV networks
will be several times more profitable to operators than would be GPRS and
W-CDMA networks providing the same amount of data.
See slide 18 & Table 7.
qualcomm.com
c) All types of CDMA must license QCOM patents and pay royalties to QCOM--includes 1X, 1x-EV, WCDMA
etc. Currently QCOM has the only operational 1X, 1X-EV technology and will be first with a full-featured W-CDMA
ASIC too. Thus the 3G market is rolling out equipment in 2001/2002 in Korea, US, Japan, Canada. The European
GSM to GPRS to W-CDMA proponents are years behind in this technology and just have nothing that competes.
The massive 2001 CDMA 95A technology rolling out in China can be upgraded to 1X and reportedly will be initially
built out as 1X in a few large cities.
d) Dr. Jacobs presents live 1X EV QCOM technology at Cannes pointing out that, except for QCOM's technology,
that is currently operating as 1X in Korea at SKT, KT, and LG and in Japan at KDDI, 3G W-CDMA technology
from the European upgrade path will be delayed until 2004/2005.
Message 15508067
e) On 3/20/2001, QCOM announced plans for their revolutionary MSM6500 and MSM6600 cell phone ASICS.
They will be multi-mode (running essentially all current and proposed wireless standards) and multi-band (allowing
all of the various frequencies used worldwide) thus allowing true worldwide roaming on one phone. Further, they
incorporate QCOM's revolutionary Radio One, ZIF technology and thus eliminate many of the electronic
components included in current phones and cutting the cost of bills of materials. With this system handset makers
worldwide can manufacture phones using a single ASIC that can be operated in Europe, US, Japan, China, etc. The
sample date on these ASICS is said to be by 2003,
siliconinvestor.com.
The MSM6000 series will use QCOM's revolutionary new Radio One, Zero Intermediate Frequency technology to
enable inexpensive multi mode, multi band ASICS
Message 15039771
f) The widely publicized DOCOMO W-CDMA network supposed to go operational in Japan in May 2001 is only a
pilot project that DOCOMO says will only sell 150,000 handsets in the first year. Data rates are said to be limited as
it is bases on unique NTT technology conforming to a 1999 draft W-CDMA standard. Only limited handsets are
available for DOCOMO's prototype as most handset makers missed the DOCOMO
deadline.
Message 15490882
g) European GPRS equipment delays. Note that if it ever arrives, GPRS supports only approximately 20Kbps data
rates, eats batteries rapidly, and emits huge amounts of potentially hazardous RF radiation. SAR numbers are the lab
measurements of the quantity of radiation a cell phone emits into a human head.
Message 15482564
(1) European GPRS causes health concerns. SAR limits in US & Korea are 1.6 watts/kg VS Europe's higher 2
watts/kg.
(2) Korea tightens SAR limits Message 14892906
(3) MOT was forced to cut back the data rate of its GPRS phone to avoid exceeding radiation safety limits
Message 14674531
(4) Luna 2/19/2001 article explains that the GPRS system to be launched in Europe in Fall 2001 is 2 years late, has
poor battery life, has power control issues, has radiation problems, offers only speeds of 20 to 40 K bps rather than
the 115K bps promised. Further, both Motorola and Siemens dodged Luna's calls and were unwilling to discuss
GPRS with her. Message 15541717
(5) Sleep disruption in Children linked to excessive cell phone radiation by NuroReport. Disney cancelled a license it
had granted a cell phone maker to use images of its cartoon characters
unizh.ch
AND
cellphones.about.com.
(6) GPRS "too hot to handle"
newscientist.com
(7) British Stewart Report concludes that children should not be allowed to use mobile phones
iegmp.org.uk
(8) Electric Words site links a huge number of RF safety studies. Note that Motorola has funded many of these. It
may be significant that MOT declined to make further comments concerning why it voluntarily lowered the data rates
on its new GPRS phone
electric-words.com
AND
electric-words.com
(9) Phones are not all equal in their radiation emission. Some phones emit 20 times more radiation than others. The
QCOM CDMA system inherently emits much less radiation than GPRS.
goaegis.com
(10) Mechanical phone designs can control SAR radiation to some extent. For example, Motorola has a patent on
the clamshell phone design, which directs the antenna away from the human head and thus significantly reduces SAR
radiation numbers for any phone design. Motorola sought to enforce this patent against Qualcomm when that
company was manufacturing phones and to use it to prevent Qualcomm from marketing a clamshell design phone,
which automatically would have a lower SAR rating. There is no evidence that MOT has dedicated this patent to the
public domain for the benefit of mankind.
Planetronics markets a wired hands free earphone & microphone device that reduces the SAR rating of phones
equipped with the device to zero radiation to the human head but continuing radiation to the portion of the human
body nearest where the phone is carried.
plantronics.com
(11) Radiation Issue Timeline
cellphones.about.com.
(h) GPRS, excess Operator Debt and delay of W-CDMA may cause Euro financial
disaster
(1) FINANCIAL DOOMSDAY
Message 15177702
(2) Europeans puzzle over extricating themselves from their 3G financial mess
Message 15520060
CEO's of British Telecom, France Telecom and Deutsch Telecom may be forced out of office over debt debacle.
Message 15590268
(3) Strategy Analytics says European operators are "alarmed" because they
have invested in GPRS networks but producers like Nokia cannot produce phones that meet their quality
requirements in sufficient volumes.
Message 15527895
(3) The GSM/GPRS/EDGE/W-CDMA upgrade path planned for Europe and
AT&T in US is not only slow to market and incapable of providing data rates faster than GPRS's 10 to 20 Kbps any
time soon but also saddles the operators and their customers with several expensive change-out-and-discard cycles
of both phones and base stations. In contrast for the CDMA 95A/1X/1X-EV
upgrade path phones and most of the base station equipment is forward compatible and thus may continue to be
used when CDMA networks are upgraded (SEE GPRS and CDMA Comparisons in column
mobiledataevolution.com
(4) GPRS 3/2001 development problem--said unable to hand off call to next base station without losing connection.
Message 15589644
+++(5) The European W-CDMA version which s intended to compete with Qualcomm's 3G CDMA2000-1X has
been very slow in development and may be delayed at least until 2004.
Message 15606448
(i) QCOM's Snap Track is the best, least expensive, position location system. Twice as accurate as the FCC
mandated specs, it is built into QCOM ASICS. It is currently in use by DOCOMO and has been studied by the
Europeans
(1) Sprint to deploy Snap Track Message 14762246
(2) Tested in Europe
Message 14893130
(j) CDMA WLL ( Wireless local link ) technology (like that being used in India) uses the same networks as other
CDMA technology and thus, with minor adjustments, supports mobile CDMA.
(1) ENGINEER EXPLAINS WLL CDMA Message 14835685
(j) Why European W-CDMA is years away. ENGINEER (SI's CDMA technical
whiz) explains why the Euro rollout of W-CDMA will have so much debugging
and system adjustment that it won't be ready until 2004. Thus, QCOM's 1X is
going to market literally years ahead of W-CDMA. FURTHER, Engineer has
explained that once 1X is installed, only a few inexpensive cards are required to rapidly move to 1X-EV which
provides a blazing 2.4 M bps within a very few months.
Message 14692405
+++(k) Other companies such as Nokia seem to have numerous difficulties developing reliable ASICS and software
to implement CDMA technology.
(1) Nokia supplied Verizon snd was forced to recall numerous CDMA phone
models using Nokia developed ASICS and software.
(2) In April Nokia revealed that it had 4.5 million CDMA phones in use that
Had a bug preventing them from working on the3G CDMA2000 1X networks under construction.
Message 15599004
II. North American Operators committed to rapid 1X roll out
a.) NXTL CEO Donohue says at ML technology conference that NXTL will roll out 1X in mid 2002 early 2003 time
frame. He can't understand AT&T's announced wireless strategy to move to W-CDMA by going first to
GSM/GPRS. Does not plan to use only MOT phones. More to be said at 3/20 CTIA conference.
Message 15501769
AND
Nextel in the US has stated several times that they plan to CDMA2000 1X. However there is no formal Company
announcement. Nextel VP Geo Santos confirms what Pres Donahue confirmed during Q&A at the Merrill Lynch
Telecom Conference recently.
siliconinvestor.com.
b) Sprint which has issued CDMA 1X purchase orders will announce their detailed plans to move from 95A to 1X
(time frame is 2H 2001 and early 2002) at CTIA conference. Compare the measly $700 to $800 million it will cost
Sprint to upgrade to 1X, doubling voice capacity, to the cost others must pay to get to 3G.
Message 15199945
AND
siliconinvestor.com.
c) Verizon on 3/19/2001 cut a 3 year, $5 billion contract with Lucent to rapidly upgrade its network to a 3G CDMA.
It had considered a slow upgrade to 1X in 2002 but now has decided to keep up with competitor, Sprint. Testing of
1X had been underway for some months.
siliconinvestor.com.
Testing
Message 14864873
North & South America May Follow US CDMA2000 1X Direction
Message 15590405
d) Bell Canada's Bell mobility unit rolling out 1X beginning late 2001
Message 15582682
III) In Japan, KDDI has announced that QCOM's 1X CDMA will be operational in OCT 2001 increasing data rates
from the current 64K bps to 144K bps. Further, KDDI has announced plans to spend $US 8 billion over the next 5
years to deploy advanced 3G CDMA ( this means 1X EV and 1X EV DO(data only).
Message 15580509
AND
Message 15580509
KDDI just successfully completed trials of a 1xEV-DO(data only) network with their partners, Hitachi, Sony and
QCOM.
biz.yahoo.com
IV) India operational in limited mobility WLL's which ultimately will utilize 20MHZ nationally to be split among
multiple operators with 3 to 5 million CDMA WLL phones to be installed in 2001 providing service at economical
rates of under $0.01 per minute. Note 1 "lakh"=100,000 & 1 "crore"=100 "lakhs"= 10 million. India plans to increase
its phone density from 3 per 100 population now to 7 in 2005 (about 10 million additions per year) and then
eventually to 10. WLL lines will be a major part of the increase.
a) BSNL purchasing $400 million in CDMA based WLL equipment to serve 600,000 phones noting that PO' have
been placed with LG et al. AND that of 600,000 villages in India 200,000 have zero phones of any kind.
Message 15498353
b) On Indian WLL
Message 15296094
b) Indian WLL forces Indian conventional cellular to get competitive
Message 15373266
c) Samsung plans to sell 2 to 5 million CDMA phones in India in 2000
Message 15473168
AND
Message 15462875
d) Comments on India WLL
Message 15217169
e) Many operators seek India's new WLL licenses
Message 15288086
f) India to have huge WLL build out
Message 15180396
g) India to raise phone density from 3 per 100 to 7 per 100 in 2005 and 15 per 100 by 2010.
Message 15311807
AND
+++ Message 15606469
V) China UNICOM is issuing CDMA PO's in March, 2001 for a Phase I, 13.3 Million added line, 200 city, $2.42
billion wide area CDMA 95A network (designed for easy upgrade to 1X or, according to one report, being built out
as 1X initially)) to be built out rapidly in 2001. Phase II is to be even larger rising to an eventual build out costing up
to $13 billion. China realizes that with its extremely high population density, only CDMA networks are spectrum
efficient enough to allow China to provide the 200Million wireless lines it has decided it must have in place in a few
years. It appears that this network will be upgraded annually by an estimated 10 million new lines up to 50 or 60
Million lines
a) Wed 3/28 China Unicom officially announced a Phase I CDMA 1X build out of a $2.42 billion CDMA 95A
network to accommodate 13.3 millon subscribers. Phase II will be even larger it was said.
Message 15574390
b) Thur 3/29 Report says that over the next 3 years the build out cost will be $8.46 billion
Message 15580280
c) MARCH 2001 CONTRACT LETTING trans by laodeng
Message 15477281
d) Unicom sees 50 million CDMA lines in 3 years
Message 15471795
e) there are many Korea-China CDMA joint ventures
Message 15582946
+++f) According to one April report, these networks will be built out as 1X networks initially rather than 95A
networks.
Message 15597640
VI. Operational Korean 1X network owned by SK will likely ramp up in June, 2001 when government restrictions
ease.
a) Message 15461193
VII. CDMA and CDMA WLL are quite active in S America. However, there is less definitive news out of there than
out of ASIA and US and Europe
a) Vesper and Telesp in Brazil to roll out 1X by end 2001
siliconinvestor.com.
AND
Message 15585594
VIII. Many Smaller countries are going CDMA
a) Vietnam Message 15211891 b) Israel
c) Jamaica
d) Romania Message 15523095
e) Indonesia (a high population country)
hankooki.com
f) Peru
h) Australia
i) Venezuela siliconinvestor.com. density
+++j) Russia (small scale trials)
Message 15606506
IX. QCOM has announced a MSM6000 inexpensive limited feature 1X ASIC to have the 2 times 95A voice capacity
of 1X networks, support SMS, and clearly targeted to enable $100 range phone that compete cost wise with GSM
phones. Ideal for India, South America and Chile WLL systems. Completion date unknown but presumably early
2002.
Message 15485601
X. The Asian plan is to link the CDMA networks of Korea, Japan and China by December 2001 at the earliest. There
are numerous other networks that could link up in the future such as US, Canada, Australia.
Message 15485469
XI. Jacobs says 90 million CDMA phones in 2001. Depending on QCOM's market share, which should be
extremely high, ASIC sales could really jump up in 2H 2001.
Message 15254284
XII. AT&T has apparently bet the company on their conviction that DOCOMO's I-Mode will be accepted in the
US. They have sold DOCOMO 16% of AWE and agreed in exchange to overlay their TDMA system with GSM,
then GPRS, then W-CDMA and to install I-mode in 2001. Thus they forgo the ability to have high data rates any
time soon as GPRS only provides approximately 20Kbps. They will have slow data speeds but a first mover market
advantage on I-Mode.
Message 14920372
Message 14918474
Message 14920719
XII. Cingular in the US has been left in a very vulnerable position by the AT&T move. Formed as a joint venture of
the TDMA properties of Bell South and SBC Communications, Cingular is supposedly going to GPRS in the US.
Thus they would have slow data, NO I-MODE First MOVER ADVANTAGE and W-CDMA
delayed until approximately 2004.
Message 14796088
Bell South is installing CDMA in their South American networks but appears to be in an odd arrangement in the US.
Recent reports are that Bell South would like to sell their Cingular interest to some GSM lover an buy into Sprint.
XIII. Recent detrimental political activity. There has been a longstanding war of words and deeds by companies and
countries attempting to enhance their control of the worldwide telecom market standard. Several trends are evident.
a) Countries and companies, often government controlled in non US countries seek, by any means, to extend their
standards world wide and purchase control of telecom operators in other countries.
(1) One claim they use to support the exclusion of other standards a home and the export of their standard abroad is
the need for one future CDMA mode to enhance world wide roaming using one phone. This is false in most areas of
the world that do not contain postage stamp sized countries because only a very small percent of phone users in
larger countries will ever cross their national borders. This is soon to be false everywhere because Qualcomm will
solve the roaming issue with their Radio One multi mode, multi frequency ASICS starting in 2002.
(2) The old entrenched, state controlled monopolies such as NTT (owned by Japanese government), AT&T and
Deutsch Telecom (owned by German government), France Telecom and British Telecom seem to hang together and
exert undue anti competitive political influence inside their countries. In Japan, the government pretends to censor
NTT anticompetitive activities, but the threat is always years away. Outside the US, these old companies have a huge
positive cash flow due to uncompetitive pricing at home. They use these excess profits derived from uncompetitive,
socialistic practices at home to spend money unwisely and attempt to purchase influence and % ownership in
telecom companies in other countries. Once ownership is achieved in companies outside their borders, these
companies use it to advance their favored technology, often to the detriment of rapid technological progress.
(3) Standards bodies are used in attempts to slow the evolution of new technologies and build proprietary
technologies into international standards at the expense of best available technology and rapid time to market.
(4) The European Commission blocks the spread of any competitive technology (other than the European one they
choose) into Europe and the US and other countries seem to accent their position while allowing European
companies to tap markets abroad. Whereas, in the US, the government must go to court, thus generating a public
airing, to stop mergers, in Europe, the European commissioner's chief anti-monopoly regulator can, with only the
barest majority, prohibit mergers in Europe and the US, with no court action to air the case. Needless to say, such
closed-door decision-making could be subject to the worst of abuses.
The Executive branch of the US government has ceded the Congress's power over US companies to the European
Commission in various WTO treaties.
b) For the US and other counties outside the world monopoly the Europeans obtained with GSM wireless, the rapid
adoption of CDMA2000 1X and 1X EV is the key to both breaking up costly monopolies and enabling rapid
wireless innovation through unleashing competitive innovation. This will gelp the whold world rapidly move beyond
the wired PC era.
c) There is a widely circulated unconfirmed report that VOD (a 45% owner in the US company, Verizon) seeks to
sieze control of the US CDMA operator and to some extent enforce European WCCMA on Verizon (or force a
delay of the previously made decision) because Vodaphone is unhappy with Verizons recent choice of
CDMA2000-1X. To justify these actions, Vodaphone VOD reportedly invoked the familiar mantra of "international
roaming" using one WCDMA phone. Verizon mgt has countered that less than 1% of their New York customers
ever leave the city.
Message 15587461
AND
siliconinvestor.com.
AND
Message 15583940
AND
siliconinvestor.com.
Verizon's CTO, Richard Lynch, says "One tenth of one quarter of one half of our customers care about an
implement they can travel with," he says. "The typical New York user doesn't even leave the New York system."
Message 15583940
Quamcomm's President, Richard Sulpizio, stated publicly that the Financial Times article was false in that it claimed
that international roaming between
CDMA2000 1X EV and WCDMA is not possible. He pointed out publicly at the 3/21/2001 S. G. Cowen Global
Technology Conference in Cannes France that the new 6000 series Qualcomm multi mode, multi frequency ASICS
will solve complaints about international roaming. See the first 3 minutes of his speech.
qualcomm.com |
