Rev 2. ADDED MORE LINKS (ID by **) TO lengthy summary of articles and links that support the thesis that
QCOM
and its CDMA technology
are 1) superior to competative technology which is not operable, has limited data rates, and serious
unresolved technical/health issues, 2) deployed and operable as 2.5G 1X (154 to 307 Kbps), 3) Successfully
pilot tested 1X EV at up to 2.4 Mbps, 4) accepted by China for massive 10Million sub buildout in 2001
escelating in China possibly to 50Million subs by 2005, 5) accepted and currently operational in India in
India with 3-5Million limited mobility WLL phones to be sold in 2001, 6) Operational as 95A inNorth
America at Sprint, Verizon, Bell Mobility in Canada and moving to 1X in 2001 at Sprint, in 2001/2002 at
Verizon, in 2002 at NXTL, 7) Operating now in in Korea as 1X, 8) Operating this year as 1X at KDDI in
Japan, 9) Operating now as 95A at Telestra in Australia, 10) operating now in numerous smaller countries
and planned rapid build out in many other countries.
Subscriber 5 year growth rates for CDMA 95A, 1X and 1X EV have been estimated at 39%/yr while only
20% for the competing European GSM, GPRS, W-CDMA upgrade path. Banks and operators supporting the
European upgrade path are traumatized by delays in the technology and the apx $15billion spent by operators
in Europe for 3G licenses for which useable European 3G technology is years away.
GROWTH RATE Message 15506194
QCOM has released BREW software to be used by creative 3rd party inventive software writers to write
useful C, C+ & Java programs to be used in CDMA wireless phones. UNLIKE MSFT, QCOM hasNO
PLANS or means to "eat its babys" by creating some massive Windows Like software incorporating the
genius ideas of these 3rd party software writers. It has set up a QCOM qualifying and monitoring procedure to
ensure the quality of such programs whose code will flow from software writers to network operators to
wireless phones thus enriching software writers and wireless network operators as well as QCOM. In short,
3rd party software writers will have a lightning love affair with QCOM unparallelled in the history of
computers/software and simultaneously anniolate GSM, GPRS, TDMA and possibly non-QCOM W-CDMA
competative advantage by means of first mover market advantage.
** Unlike the one size fits all philosophy on MSFT Windows versions of creative programs, QCOM's wireless
BREW model allows a myrid of unique programs whose diversity will have the effect of mass customized killer
software apps
209.10.210.210.
1. SUPERIOR QCOM TECHNOLOGY
a) Dr Jacobs' slide points out the huge bits/second efficient spectrum usage advantage QCOM's 1X and 1XEV
have over GSM, GPRS and W-CDMA. (Slide2)
qualcomm.com
**b) The May QCOM "White Paper" compares the ecomomics of CDMA 95A, 1X and 1X-EV networks
to that of GSM, GPRS, and WCDMA networks in the upcoming era of increased data usage. Concl is that (!)
ultimately network cost of providing of data using a 1X-EV network is a fraction of cost to provide the
data with a W-CDMA network (2) user experience is better w/ 1X-EV because its much hgher peak data rates
will allow data downloads in a fraction of the time of W-CDMA, (3) in a had to head competition between
networks providing data to customers tolerating a $40/month wireless bill, the 1X and 1X-EV networks will be
several times more profitable to operators than would be GPRS and W-CDMA networks providing the same
amount of data.
qualcomm.com
c) All types of CDMA must license QCOM patents and pay royalties to QQCOM--includes 1X, 1x-EV,
WCDMA etc. Currently QCOM has the only operational 1X, 1X-EV technology and will be first with a full
featured W-CDMA ASIC too. Thus the 3G market is rolling out equipment in 2001/2002 in Korea, US, Japan,
Canada. The European GSM toGPRS to W-CDMA proponents are years behind in this technology and just
have nothing that competes. The massive 2001 CDMA 95A technology rolling out in China can be upgraded
to 1X.
d) Dr. Jacobs presents live 1x EV QCOM technology at Cannes pointing out that except for QCOM's
technology which is currently operating as 1X in Korea at SKT, KT, and LG and in Japan at KDDI, 3G
W-CDMA technology from the European upgrade path will be delayed until 2004/2005.
Message 15508067
e) The widely publicized DOCOMO W-CDMA network supposed to go operational in Japan in May 2001 is
only a pilot project which DOCOMO says will only sell 150,000 handsets in the first year. Data rates are
said to be limited as it is bases on unique NTT technology conforming to a 1999 draft W-CDMA standard.
Only limited handsets are available for DOCOMO's prototype as most handset makers missed the DOCOMO
deadline.
Message 15490882
f) European GPRS equipment delays. Note that if it ever arrives, GPRS supports only apx 20Kbps data rates,
eats batteries rapidly, and emits huge ammounts of potentially hazardous RF radiation.
Message 15482564
(1) European GPRS causes health concerns. SAR limits in US & Korea are 1.6 watts/kg VS Europe's higher
2 watts/kg.
Korea tightens SAR limits Message 14892906
MOT was forced to cut back the data rate of its GPRS phone to avoid exceeding radiation safety limits
Message 14674531
Sleep disruption in Children linked to excessive cell phone radiation by NuroReport. Disney cancelled a
license it had granted a cell phone maker to use immages of its cartoon characters
unizh.ch
GPRS "too hot to handle"
newscientist.com
** British report concludes that children should not be allowed to use mobile phones
iegmp.org.uk
** Electric Words site links a huge number of RF safety studies. Note that many of these have been
Funded by Motorola. It may be significant that MOT craw fished out of making further comments comcerning
why why it voluntarily lowered the data rates on its new GPRS phone
electric-words.com
AND
electric-words.com
** Phones are not all equal in their radiation emission. Some phones emit 20 times more radiation than others.
The QCOM CDMA system inherrently emits much less radiation than GPRS.
goaegis.com
(2) GPRS and delay of W-CDMA may cause Euro financial disaster
FINANCIAL DOOMSDAY Message 15177702
**Europeans puzzel over extracating themselves from their 3G financial mess
Message 15520060
** The GSM/GPRS/EDGE/W-CDMA upgrade path planned for Europe and AT&T in US is not only slow to
market and incapable of providing data rates faster than GPRS's 10 to 20 Kbps
any time soon but also saddles the operators and their customers with several expensive
change-out-and-discard cycles of both phonees and base stations. In contrast for the CDMA 95A/1X/1X-EV
upgrade path phones and most of the base station equipment is forward compatible and thus may continue to be
used when CDMA networks are upgraded (SEE GPRS and CDMA Comparisons in column 1)
mobiledataevolution.com
e) QCOM's Snap Track is the best, least expensive, position location system. Twice as accurate as the FCC
mandated specs, it is built into QCOM ASICS. It is currently in use by DOCOMO and has been studied by the
Europeans
(1) Sprint to deploy Snap Track
Message 14762246
(2) Tested in Europe
Message 14893130
f) CDMA WLL ( Wireless local link ) technology (like thak being used in India) uses the same networks as
other CDMA technology and thus, with minor adjustments, suppouts mobile CDMA.
(1) ENGINEER EXPLAINS WLL CDMA
Message 14835685
g) Why European W-CDMA is years away. ENGINEER (SI's CDMA technical whiz) explains why the Euro
roll
out of W-CDMA will have so much debugging and system adjustment that it won't be ready untill 2004.
Thus, QCOM's 1X is going to market literally years ahead of W-CDMA. FURTHER, Engineer has
explained that once 1X is installed, only a few inexpensive cards are required to rapidly move to 1X-EV
which provides a blazing 2.4 M bps within a very few months.
Message 14692405
V) North American Operators committed to rapid 1X roll out
a.) NXTL CEO Donohue says at ML technology conference that NXTL will roll out 1X in mid 2002 early
2003 time frame. He can't understand AT&T's announced wireless strategy to move to W-CDMA by going
first to GSM/GPRS. Does not plan to use only MOT phones. More to be said at 3/20 CTIA conference.
Message 15501769
b) Sprint which has issued CDMA 1X purchase orders will announce their detailed plans to move from 95A
to
1X (time frame is 2H 2001 and early 2002) at CTIA conference. Compare the measly $700 to $800 million it
will cost Sprint to upgrade to 1X, doubling voice capacity, to the cost others must pay to get to 3G.
Message 15199945
c) Verizon will upgrade to 1X but this will likely be in 2002; 1X-EV trials underway
Message 14864873
d) Bell Canada's Bell mobility unit rolling out 1X beginning late 2001
post.clubs.yahoo.com.
VI) India operational in limited mobility WLL's which ultimately will utilize 20MHZ nationally to be split
among multiple operators with 3 to 5 million CDMA WLL phones to be installed in 2001 providing service at
economical rates of under $0.01 mer minute. Note 1 "lakh"=100,000 & 1 "crore"=100 "lakhs"= 10 million
a) BSNL purchasing $400 million in CDMA based WLL equipment to serve 600,000 phones noting that PO's
have neen placed with LG et al. AND that of 600,000villages in India 200,000 have zero phones of any kind.
Message 15498353
b)On Indian WLL
Message 15296094
c) Indian WLL forces Indian conventional cellular to get competative.
Message 15373266
d) Samsung plans to sell 2 to 5 million CDMA phones in India in 2001
Message 15473168
AND
Message 15462875
e) Comments on India WLL
Message 15217169
f) Many operators seek India's new WLL licenses
Message 15288086
g) India to have huge WLL build out
Message 15180396
VII) China UNICOM is issuing CDMA PO's in March, 2001 for a 10 Million added line, 200 city, $12 billion
wide area CDMA 95A network (designed for easy upgrade to 1X) to be built out rapidly in 2001. China
realizes that with its extremely high poplulation density, only CDMA networks are spectrum efficient enough
to allow China to provide toe 200Million wireless lines it has decided it must have in place in a few years. It
appears that this network will be upgraded annually by an extimated 10 million new lines op to 50 or 60
Million lines
a) MARCH 2001 CONTRACT LETTING trans by laodeng
Message 15477281
b) Unicom sees 50 million CDMA lines in 3 years
Message 15471795
c) there are many Korea-China CDMA joint ventures
ragingbull.lycos.com
VIII. Operational Korean 1X network owned by SK will likely ramp up in June, 2001 when gvt restrictions
ease.
a) Message 15461193
IX. CDMA and CDMA WLL are quite active in S America. However, there is less difinitive news out of
there than out of ASIA and US and Europe
a) Vesper in Brazil to roll out 1X by end 2001
Message 15166181
X. Many Smaller countries are going CDMA
a) Vietnam Message 15211891
b) Israel
c) Jamaca
** d)Romania Message 15523095
X) QCOM nas announced a MSM6000 inexpensive limited feature 1X ASIC to have the 2 times 95A voice
capacity of 1X networks, support SMS, and clearly targeted to enable $100 range phone that compete
costwise with GSM phones. Ideal for India, South America and Chila WLL systems. Completion date
unknown but presumably early 2002.
Message 15485601
XII. The Asian plan is to link the CDMA networks of Korea, Japan and China by December 2001 at the
earliest. There are numerous other networks that could link up in the future such as US, Canada, Australia.
Message 15485469
XII. Jacobs says 90 million CDMA phones in 2001. Depending on QCOM's market share which should be
extremely high, ASIC sales could really jump up in 2H 2001.
Message 15254284
XIII. AT&T has aparantly bet the company on their conviction that DOCOMO's I-Mode will be accepted in
the US.
They have sold DOCOMO 16% of AWE and agreed in exchange to overlay their TDMA system with GSM
then GPRS, Then W-CDMA and to install I-mode in 2001. Thus they forgo the ability to have high data rates
any time soom as GPRS only provides apx 20Kbps. They will have slow data speeds but a first mover
market advantage on I-Mode.
Message 14920372
Message 14918474
Message 14920719
XIV. Cingular in the US has been left in a very vulnerable position by the AT&T move. Formed as a joint
venture
of the TDMA properties of Bell South and SBC Communications, Cingular is supposedly going to GPRS
in the US. Thus they would have slow data, NO I-MODE First MOVER ADVANTAGE and W-CDMA
delayed to apx 2004.
Message 14796088
Bell South is installing CDMA in their South American networks but appears to be in an odd
arrangement in the US. Recent reports are that Bell South would like to sell their Cingular interest
to some GSM lover an buy into Sprint. |
