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Oliver: Thanks again for your discussion of the SS literature. I had emailed you about SS before I rec'd your note, so this is a followup. >Just got SystemSoft package over the weekend (they definitely are better = >at marketing hype than PTEC, just comparing annual reports). But as I = >dug into substance, I'm convinced that PTEC is a superior technology = >company and the smart OEMs know this (no OEM will put themself in a = >position to have to rely on one vendor for system software, particularly = >as small as SYSF or PTEC however). =20 I'm inclined to agree with you about this. >SystemSoft outlines about 6 major standards that cover "call avoidance" = >in their annual report. "Plug and play" is a major one. While SYSF has = >been hyping their CardWizard, PTEC (and not SYSF) has licensed their = >"Plug and Play" technology to Microsoft for Windows 95 (stated in PTEC = >annual report).=20 PTEC should be trumpeting this loudly and clearly. Goes to show that maybe they need a new marketing chief. Alternatively, perhaps Riopel is on the road too much! >Finally, look at the deal with DEC and Intel. They've only said that = >they will put in "several million dollars" (5 or 6?) not just in money = >but in intellectual property, etc. This doesn't sound like much (nor = >very committed) for a supposedly "revolutionary" product. At least = >SYSF's CEO was honest about one thing...Microsoft's coming to the = >unveiling doesn't mean they're committed (only that they support this = >type of product because it makes them look better and they don't want to = >build it right now themselves). The 10K forms indicate that INTC is putting in about $300,000 per quarter in revenues to SS. But the forms also hint that the profit on this revenue is "low margin", so INTC seems to be playing hardball and not at all like a benevolent rich uncle. >On a side note, I finally realized why PTEC is twice the size of SYSF, = >even though SYSF supposedly has 80% of the portable market and PTEC only = >has about 20% of the desktop market. How do you know PTEC has only 20% of the desktop market? I thought it was higher? Also, PTEC perhaps should be throwing more resources into capturing more portable BIOS market share, as notebook sales are growing faster than desktop >SYSF has about 80% of only about = >15% of the total market. By picking up Intel and Dell, I think PTEC = >should double or triple their current market share in desktops (and = f>ileservers). (By the way, even though SYSF supposedly just got a deal = >to sell PCMCIA software to IBM, PTEC already has a deal with IBM to = >ship its Telephony software on all IBM Aptivas (which I think is a = >bigger deal). I also think Dell's recent endorsement of PTEC's PCMCIA = >software (kicking out SYSF) says MUCH more about the quality of PTEC's = >PCMCIA offering than IBM's endorsement of SYSF. Let's hope it snowballs! >Just for the fun of it, I forecast that if SYSF maintains its 50+ price = >for more than a short time (the time it takes hype to die down), that = >PTEC will be at least at 36 within 3 months. If not, I think PTEC will = >be in the mid-twenties by September. Maybe even higher, if the insane valuations that's characterizing the tech stocks can be applied to PTEC. I'm thinking the next earnings report in July should be a blowout, which would help even more. Gary | ||||||||||||||
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