The UPS Strike- Opportunity of the year?

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Non-Tech
The UPS Strike- Opportunity of the year?

An SI Board Since August 1997

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans
25	0	0

Emcee: Rubble	Type: Unmoderated

Introduction Compact

I've taken a great interest over the past couple weeks in the competitors of UPS, and the potential for long-term earnings increases. Analysts at first did not believe a strike could ever occur, then once it started, they predicted a quick resolution. Now they are beginning to concede the possibility of a long drawn-out strike...but they still cling to the belief that any earnings gains will be temporary.

I disagree. The way I see it, once someone uses a new carrier, they will be likely to continue using that new carrier. In addition, I believe even the majority of businesses that do return to UPS will continue some relationships with other carriers after the strike resolves, so they won't be caught high and dry again (most carriers have been so overrun with business lately that new customers have been turned away, and old customers have had a package cap set at the pre-strike volume...many companies have no feasible way to ship packages).

Last week I bought into FDX, which is the biggest publicly traded carrier I know of. I'm looking to open up positions in ABF (an air freight company that recently put out awesome earnings) and CNF (which looks to me to be the best ground carrier). Anyone want to discuss these and other carriers that stand to benefit from the UPS strike?

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Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
25	A resolution to the strike has been announced. The details haven't. I'm	Rubble	-	8/19/1997
24	I too am bullish on ABF. The PE of ~12 is perhaps the lowest of all the carrier	Rubble	-	8/17/1997
23	I'm very bullish on ABF. They price doubled in a very short period way befo	Michael Foy	-	8/17/1997
22	If I'm not mistaken, I believe PBI ships ALL of their meters via the Postal	mr.bill	-	8/15/1997
21	Bill- You may be on to something. If businesses are flocking to PBI for postage	Rubble	-	8/15/1997
20	One of the companies that might benefit from the UPS strike is PBI. As a postal	mr.bill	-	8/15/1997
19	Another idea perhaps? Are companies that rely on UPS, ie mail order firms, tan	Jake's mom	-	8/15/1997
18	< FedEx is not taking on any new customers so it doesnt benefit them that mu	Rubble	-	8/15/1997
17	WOW I wonder who owns UPS? I heard that management owns it but that would means	John Liu	-	8/15/1997
16	Thanks Don. Thought Air Ways was a freight carrier. Dont think this would be mu	Jim	-	8/14/1997
15	FedEx is not taking on any new customers so it doesnt benefit them that much. T	stockvalinvestor	-	8/14/1997
14	Air Tran merged with Valujet. Vjet could be viewed as the one who took over.	Don Dunlap	-	8/14/1997
13	< Do you know if FedX is union and has similar risks? > If I recall corr	Rubble	-	8/14/1997
12	Rubble I am on the Vivus thread and had been discussing the same play with my	Jim	-	8/14/1997
11	< 1)Service 2)Cost 3)Reliability > Well...UPS has already ru	Rubble	-	8/13/1997
10	Judy, I agree that costomers will go back to UPS. The question I have is whet	Brian VanHiel	-	8/13/1997
9	I think folks will go back to using UPS once the strike is over and forget the	Judy Muldawer	-	8/13/1997
8	I think you are right about UPS losing some business but I think it will be MUC	Bear Down	-	8/13/1997
7	FDX is up only about two points since the strike began. It closed on August 1 a	Rubble	-	8/13/1997
6	Do you know how many points and/or percent has FDX risen since the begining of	John Liu	-	8/13/1997
5	One consequence of the UPS strike that I find inevitable is that UPS will raise	Rubble	-	8/13/1997
4	John, UPS' cost structure is better since they have an extensive ground ne	JJ	-	8/13/1997
3	What I am look for is to see if FDX can compete with UPS once the strike is don	John Liu	-	8/13/1997
2	John, <i>Does anyone know of the different cost structure of each	JJ	-	8/13/1997
1	I was looking at FDX right after the strike started but have not moved yet sinc	John Liu	-	8/13/1997

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