Cory Gault, John Fowler, Tony Viola, et al...
> > insults is really what this thread is about > this has now become the all Intel all the time thread
Hello, Cory and folks. I decided to just take a look through the posts since #50000 in order to validate your theories, but I found some variance existing between the version of reality that I am observing and the version of fantasy upon which you are basing your hypotheses. Below is an accounting of the posts to this thread starting 6:00am August 6th and ending with the post to which I am replying. I've noted the basic direction of each message in order to get a general idea of how much of the thread revolves around flaming Intel advocates.
First off, though, I wanted to point out that I have three people on my ignore list: (a) Niceguy: He really isn't a mean person or anything, I just couldn't stand his overly frequent messages which all basically contained the same content, that of the "AMD is doing great and is poised to launch to the moon!" mentality (b) Paul Engel: He bases nearly his entire relation to this thread on insulting others, goading people into arguments, and generally attempting to lower the intellectual content of the thread by posting old news repetitively in a manner not unlike Niceguy's. Additionally, the majority of his messages contain immature potty humour in some form or another. How anybody can complain when he gets suspended is completely beyond my comprehension, regardless of the amount of fabrication that can be made about his content (c) Yousef: I should take him off the list. When he first entered the thread, his numerous posts were completely oriented towards insulting or goading others. He was suspended for a short time, and from the responses I see to his messages (while looking back through these archives), he is now making valuable contributions to the thread.
I acknowledge that there are more Intel advocates than there are AMD advocates on my ignore list, but I will point out that Niceguy and Paul both had very large volumes of posts, while Yousef likely has not posted too voluminously. I am hoping the sentiments of Niceguy and those of Paul and Yousef cancelled each other out.
Posts since #50000:
Message 16173022 Neutral AMD
Message 16173027 Neutral
Message 16173041 Neutral
Message 16173042 Neutral
Message 16173043 Neutral
Message 16173046 Neutral (slightly flamish, but neither at AMD nor Intel)
Message 16173047 Neutral
Message 16173049 Neutral
Message 16173056 Neutral
Message 16173057 Neutral
Message 16173060 Optimistic AMD, Pessimistic Rambus ("No one with any brains is still holding the stock")
Message 16173076 Pessimistic Rambus ("It does look like the fat lady already sang on that one")
Message 16173282 Off Topic
Message 16173317 Neutral
Message 16173339 Neutral
Message 16173374 Off Topic
Message 16173381 Neutral AMD
Message 16173453 Optimistic Intel ("Even without servers, Intel's IAG business certainly makes a solid profit")
Message 16173470 Off Topic
Message 16173556 Neutral AMD
Message 16173577 Humour
Message 16173601 Pessimistic AMD ("It seems likely that AMD is playing word games, and Thoroughbred will actually be larger")
Message 16173616 Neutral AMD
Message 16173651 Pessimistic Intel
Message 16173753 Optimistic SOI
Message 16173796 AMD, Intel news
Message 16173844 Anti-Analyst
Message 16173868 Anti-Analyst
Message 16173918 news, Pessimistic Intel
Message 16173942 Humour (could be taken as Pessimistic Intel)
Message 16173972 AMD news
Message 16173989 Pessimistic Intel, slightly pessimistic AMD
Message 16174021 Slightly pessimistic Intel, pessimistic AMD
Message 16174023 Anti-Analyst ("Anybody with half a brain have known about these price cuts for about two weeks. Now the stock takes a hit after Dan Niles tells the world about them")
Message 16174035 Neutral
Message 16174138 Anti-Intel ("POS would be more accurate")
Message 16174230 Neutral
Message 16174262 Confusing -- possibly Humour, possibly Anti-Intel
Message 16174276 Neutral
Message 16174323 Optimistic Intel, Anti-AMD ("there are no reports about P4 stability, or lack of same, as there are with Athlons")
Message 16174329 Accurate Flame
Message 16174346 Anti-Intel ("There are plenty of reports about P4 instability"), and a little bit of flamage
Message 16174378 Pessimistic Intel
Message 16174401 Attack on Moderator/Thread
Message 16174447 Neutral
Message 16174491 Pessimistic AMD, slightly Pessimistic Intel
Message 16174498 Neutral
Message 16174511 Off Topic (annoying), Anti-Intel
Message 16174516 Intel News
Message 16174520 Moderation commentary
Message 16174525 Neutral (though assumptive)
Message 16174527 Anti-Intel
Message 16174551 Optimistic AMD ("Best Buy was full of Athlon systems this weekend")
Message 16174561 Neutral, flamage (sort of -- "does that make you the POS Guy?")
Message 16174572 Neutral (excellent post, btw)
Message 16174591 Off Topic
Message 16174598 Pessimistic AMD, slightly pessimistic Intel
Message 16174622 Mixed AMD, Intel
Message 16174655 Neutral
Message 16174987 Off Topic
Message 16175010 Neutral
Message 16175068 Anti-Analyst
Message 16175074 Neutral
Message 16175134 Neutral
Message 16175259 Neutral
Message 16175295 Neutral
Message 16175314 Slightly pessimistic Intel
Message 16175351 Off Topic
Message 16175426 Neutral
Message 16175451 Off Topic-ish
Message 16175481 Off Topic
Message 16175580 Off Topic
Message 16175637 Pessimistic AMD related post
Message 16175713 General Market (anti-Analyst) post
Message 16175869 Indifferent News post
Message 16175954 Pessimistic AMD post ("AMD is relegated to whoring its' product")
Message 16175955 Previous message clarification
Message 16175961 Optimistic AMD post ("AMD in low teens -- I don't think so because...")
Message 16175976 Off Topic
Message 16175978 Pessimistic (but hopeful) AMD post
Message 16176004 Anti-Analyst post ("analysts have completely missed this point for both AMD and Intel")
Message 16176043 AMD information post
Message 16176057 AMD/Intel post (*maybe* Intel pessimistic, though only slightly if so -- it points at the P4 price curve, but not explicitly with venom)
Message 16176070 Optimistic AMD post
Message 16176108 Anti-Analyst post ("They don't take the time to look ahead, or get the complete picture")
Message 16176203 Off Topic
Message 16176210 Off Topic
Message 16176222 Mostly off topic, slightly AMD informational
Message 16176366 Off Topic
Message 16176458 Insultive anti-Intel ("Cory's too busy whoring for Intel")
Message 16176518 Moderative (poster of the above above message, plus one vehemently anti-AMD poster, were suspended, though neither for reasons of standing)
Message 16176539 Pessimistic AMD, Intel ("Not good for anyone long AMD or INTC")
Message 16176549 Pessimistic AMD
Message 16176573 Pessimistic General ("I think problem with ASP's is that folks are not buying high end anymore")
Message 16176584 Pessimistic General ("the last nail in the coffin for the second half recovery")
Message 16176640 Moderation commentary
Message 16176668 Moderation defense
Message 16176687 Optimistic AMD, Intel ("There were indications that both companies could have shipped at least small quantities of such chips in that time frame. When one didn't, neither did the other.")
Message 16176775 Pessimistic General (maybe slightly pessimistic Intel -- "in his opinion intel's price war would hurt recovery" -- but is reporting an analyst's words and not saying as a personal assertion)
Message 16176792 Intel news
Message 16176854 Optimistic AMD, Pessimistic Intel
Message 16176869 Neutral
Message 16176900 Optimistic AMD, Intel
Message 16176966 Moderation commentary, Neutral Intel (news)
Message 16177062 Intel (information)
Message 16177112 Off Topic, Anti-Microsoft (wahooo!!!<g>)
Message 16177291 Pessimistic AMD
Message 16177309 Off Topic
Message 16177402 Pessimistic Intel (sort of -- "Sometimes it's necessary to interpret Intel's hints and nudges because it's all they'll ever give")
Message 16177516 Optimistic General news ("Taiwan's motherboard makers enjoyed strong growth in July")
Message 16177877 Pessimistic Intel ("the major risk left in this market is due to the market's refusal to have already collapsed Intel's market cap")
Message 16178006 AMD news
Message 16178246 AMD information (slightly Optimistic AMD, slightly Pessimistic Intel)
Message 16178406 Off Topic
Message 16178576 Moderation commentary ("It's nice to hit 'Next 40' and see more than 10 posts")
Message 16178650 Pessimistic Intel ("Intel's P/E was 250 last quarter and it will probably be infinite this quarter.")
Message 16178759 Off Topic
Message 16178841 Off Topic
Message 16178856 Pessimistic AMD, Intel
Message 16178895 Off Topic
Message 16178983 Pessimistic Intel ("They may find they've made a terrible mistake")
Message 16178988 Pessimistic AMD, Intel (a little more pessimistic on AMD)
Message 16179008 Off Topic
Message 16179102 Pessimistic Intel
Message 16179102 Pessimistic Intel ("The stupidity of the PIII phase-out and an all-out push of P4 into IT accounts boggles my mind")
Message 16179187 Pessimistic AMD
Message 16179201 Pessimistic General ("I would not be surprised if Q3 and Q4 turn out much worse for PC chip and box makers")
Message 16179214 Optimistic Intel ("Intel does have a fallback position")
Message 16179248 Mixed Intel (slightly more optimistic than pessimistic -- "I think they are brow-beating OEMs into a massive P4 shift, but have a secret fallback plan as you said")
Message 16179293 Slightly optimistic AMD, slightly pessimistic Intel ("If Intel really tries this, it could blow up in their face, and AMD could get the ... corporate market.... Not too likely, but still...")
Message 16179397 Indirect pessimistic Intel
Message 16179487 Attack on Moderator/Thread ("AMD - CHEERLEADERS THREAD")
Message 16179561 Pessimistic Intel
Message 16179573 Off Topic
Message 16179602 Humour (could be interpreted as Pessimistic Intel)
Message 16179646 Optimistic Intel
Message 16179704 Pessimistic Intel Message 16179708 Moderation commentary
Message 16179735 Optimistic Intel ("There is no way that Intel could fail to get P4 accepted.... Tualatin is a genuine fallback position")
Message 16179749 Intel information (possibly slightly pessimistic -- "they claim to have no wafer starts for Tualatin desktops")
Message 16179782 Moderation commentary
Message 16179814 Optimistic Intel, slightly optimistic AMD ("Don't overestimate the power of intel inside.")
Message 16179861 Pessimistic AMD
Message 16179908 Pessimistic AMD
Message 16179933 Neutral Intel (but with an assumption that could be taken as negative)
Message 16179935 Attack on Moderator/Thread ("Balance and objectivity are not the goals of this thread")
Message 16179959 Optimistic Intel ("13u. Much lower cost, much higher capacity and much higher performance")
Message 16179984 Neutral
Message 16180042 Neutral (though a good retort)
Message 16180047 Moderation commentary
Message 16180091 Moderation defense
Message 16180143 Pessimistic Intel
Message 16180181 Intel news
Message 16180212 Neutral Intel
Message 16180236 Neutral (but hopeful) AMD
Message 16180249 Optimistic VIA (huh??)
Message 16180255 Irrelevant (or irreverant)
Message 16180256 Optimistic AMD
Message 16180278 Pessimistic (sort of) Intel ("Intel has been leading the market around like a puppy dog for years")
Message 16180279 Attack on Moderator/Thread ("Let's devote at least 65% of the posts to bashing Intel. Any criticism of Intel, regardless of it's factual merit, will be tolerated")
Message 16180292 Pessimistic Intel
Message 16180297 Optimistic Intel ("Intel invented and evolved the market"), Attack on Moderator/Thread ("insults is really what this thread is about")
Message 16180329 Pessimistic AMD ("there is nothing good left to say about AMD"), Attack on Moderator/Thread ("this has now become the all Intel all the time thread")
Notes:
Most of the Anti-Intel posts and name calling of Intel things and people seem to be from Win Smith, who was recently suspended.
I noted above that two of my ignored people are Intel advocates, while only one is an AMD advocate. Since the Intel advocates are more likely to post Optimistic Intel and/or Pessimistic AMD, and the AMD advocates are more likely to post Optimistic AMD and/or Pessimistic Intel, the absence of one extra Intel advocate adds credence to a working hypothesis that the actual Intel posts are more optimistic than reported here while the actual AMD posts are more pessimistic than reported here.
That said, it was really hard to quantify all this. The overall sentiment on this thread is *definitely* negative. In the case of AMD, even people judged as hopeless "AMDroids" (like Albert K.) by some have posted some negative comments, and there are people who have received in the past strong criticisms regarding the thread moderation but have actually been very negative at times with respect to AMD (examples include Cirruslvr, Fyodor, and currently Mani, the guy who mostly posts about how crappy AMD is doing but who is frequently attacked on the basis of allegedly only suspending those who are against Intel and supposedly conspiring to kick off all people who post bad things about Intel [I guess this means that Mani secretly hopes to one day forcibly remove himself from this thread!]).
In the case of Intel ... well, I won't deny that most of the pessimistic Intel posts are made by AMD advocates. I wish it wasn't like that, but I suspect that things are similar in other threads, where the company targeted by the thread attracts devotees who cannot avoid knocking the competition.
Anyway, my quick tally here is that there are ten more posts that are Pessimistic AMD than there are posts that are Optimistic AMD. There are fourteen more posts that are Pessimistic Intel than there are posts that are Pessimistic AMD. There are well over one hundred posts. There's something like 167 messages (I'm lazy to do a proper count, so I extend my apologies) which means that roughly 60% of the messages are neither pro-Intel nor pro-AMD. If I had to throw out a number based on hastily guessed mathematical concepts, I'd say that roughly 40 of the messages listed here were pessimistic on Intel. Roughly 27 were optimistic on Intel. About 39 were pessimistic on AMD, which brings our estimate for optimistic AMD posts to 29. Granted, this is a totally unscientific effort, but at least it's better than using blanket statements like "The Evil Intellabees have totally taken over!" or "The 'Droid Gestapo will crush all those who like Intel!". I say that the sentiment is reasonably balanced once you take into account the fact that people flock to the thread of the stock that they own, and many people who own a stock and post on message boards relating to it will often become attached to it, whether it be AMD, Intel, InGen, or CyberDyne.
The only *real* problem on this thread is that people are mean to one another. Win Smith was one such example, though the short suspension he's going through will probably clear his head and make him a sane, likable guy. ;) There's just a couple other people who make as many attempts as possible to push the barriers of bad taste and general meanness, and other than that this is a pretty civil forum.
That is, imho. ^_^
-JC
PS: Aww, crap. It's quarter after eight. Aargh, I'm starting my nightly walk late! No matter, this researching was fun, in a perverse sort of way. ;) |